甘肃庆阳地区春末夏初干旱的气候特征及预测模型

应用自然正交函数分解(EOF)方法,分析了甘肃省庆阳地区春末夏初干旱的综合评价指数DH的空间分布特征及随时间演变规律,并提出了抗旱生产建议;分析了春末夏初干旱对冬小麦和玉米产量的影响;应用逐步回归方法建立了春末夏初干旱的预测模型,业务使用效果良好.     

二代玉米螟发生规律与气象条件关系

利用２４年的资料,研究了二代玉米螟发生期与气象条件的关系。结果表明：温度是二代玉米螟发生的主导因子,其发育进程遵循有效积温法则;降水量和雨日偏多,对发育进程有延缓作用。     

基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群研究

Research into urban expansion patterns and their driving forces is of great significance for urban agglomeration development planning and decision-making.In this paper,we reveal the multi-dimensional characteristics of urban expansion patterns,based on the intensity index of the urban expansion,the differentiation index of the urban expansion,the fractal dimension index,the land urbanization rate,and the center of gravity model,by taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jing-Jin-Ji)urban agglomeration as an example.We then build the center of gravity-geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model by coupling the center of gravity model with the GTWR model.Through the analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns and by using the center of gravity-GTWR model,we analyze the driving forces of the urban land expansion and summarize the dominant development modes and core driving forces of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration.The results show that:1)Between 1990 and 2015,the expansion intensity of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration showed a down-up-down trend,and the peak period was in 2005-2010.Before 2005,high-speed development took place in Beijing,Tianjin,Baoding,and Langfang;after 2005,rapid development was seen in Xingtai and Handan.2)Although the barycenter of cities in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration has shown a divergent trend,the local interaction between cities has been enhanced,and the driving forces of urban land expansion have shown a characteristic of spatial spillover.3)The spatial development mode of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration has changed from a dual-core development mode to a multi-core development mode,which is made up of three functional cores:the transportation core in the northern part,the economic development core in the central part,and the investment core in the southern part.The synergistic development between each functional core has led to the multi-core development mode.4)The center of gravity-GTWR model combines the analysis of spatial and temporal nonstationarity with urban spatial interaction,and analyzes the urban land expansion as a space-time dynamic system.The results of this study show that the model is a feasible approach in the analysis of the driving forces of urban land expansion.     

页岩裂缝发育主控因素及其对含气性的影响

依据国内外页岩气大量资料和测试数据,对影响页岩裂缝发育的岩性和矿物组成、有机碳含量、岩石力学性质、异常高压等非构造因素和构造因素进行了定性或半定量分析,初步探讨了页岩裂缝发育与含气量之间关系。结果表明:页岩中石英、长石和碳酸盐岩含量高,岩石的泊松比低、杨氏模量高,脆性大,容易在外力作用下形成天然裂缝和诱导裂缝,其发育程度一般与页岩中脆性矿物的含量呈正相关关系。高有机碳含量或异常高压页岩裂缝发育。裂缝发育程度与有机碳含量关系可以划分为4类。页岩裂缝发育程度与总含气量和游离气量呈正相关关系,页岩裂缝越发育,其含气量越大,产气量也越高。裂缝对页岩气藏的形成具有双重作用,一是裂缝可以作为天然气和地层水的有效储集空间和快速运移通道,有利于页岩层系中游离态天然气体积的增加和吸附态天然气的解吸,裂缝密度越大,走向越分散,产气量越高;二是裂缝规模过大,可能导致天然气散失。北美地区页岩裂缝发育带内的页岩气勘探成功率高,产气量高,中国四川盆地下古生界海相富有机质脆性页岩层中天然气有良好显示或高产气井均与裂缝发育密切相关。     

阜新市主城区煤矿矿坑排水可利用水量分析调查

对阜新市主城区矿坑排水的利用一直是有关部门思考的问题,尤其是对该区域矿坑排水的数量、规模争议较大,本文通过翔实的调查资料分析计算矿坑排水可利用水量,共有关部门参考.     

费县采取得力措施确保“西气东输”工程顺利施工

9月29日，临沂市政府组织临沂日报、临沂电视台、临沂人民广播电台等新闻媒体举行沂蒙山国家地质公园和沂蒙钻石国家矿山公园申报成功新闻发布，对两个国家级公园情况进行了全面介绍。     

陇东黄土高原城市酸雨特征监测统计分析

根据西峰国家基准气候站11a酸雨监测与庆阳市北部主要污染源资料样本,按照中国气象局确定的酸雨标准统计分析发现:不计风场平流影响条件下,1992~2000年庆阳市酸雨度在波动中减弱,2001~2002年有所增强,年酸雨频率为逐年减弱趋势,月酸雨度3月和11月最强,PH值≤4.80,8~11月酸雨频率最大达24%~35%;在雨前和雨中考虑风场平流因子作用,北部污染源对庆阳市年酸雨度强度平流影响不明显,对酸雨年频率有增大影响,对月酸雨度影响10月最显著,PH值减小0.3,在月酸雨频率增大影响上主要是盛夏6~8月。初步揭示了陇东黄土高原城市存在酸雨的基本事实,对于防治酸雨危害和保护生态环境具有积极意义。