| 甘肃庆阳地区春末夏初干旱的气候特征及预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王位泰.甘肃庆阳地区春末夏初干旱的气候特征及预测模型[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2004,19(1):92-95. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王位泰 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省庆阳地区气象局,甘肃,西峰,745000 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用自然正交函数分解(EOF)方法,分析了甘肃省庆阳地区春末夏初干旱的综合评价指数DH的空间分布特征及随时间演变规律,并提出了抗旱生产建议;分析了春末夏初干旱对冬小麦和玉米产量的影响;应用逐步回归方法建立了春末夏初干旱的预测模型,业务使用效果良好.
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱 春末夏初 气候特征 预测模型 甘肃省 庆阳地区 春末夏初 干旱 气候特征 预测模型 spring late during forecast model feature weather 效果 业务使用 逐步回归方法 影响 玉米产量 冬小麦 生产建议 抗旱 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-1742(2004)01-0092-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年6月18日 |
Drought weather feature and its forecast model during late spring and beginning summer in Qingyang |
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| WANG Wei-tai.Drought weather feature and its forecast model during late spring and beginning summer in Qingyang[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2004,19(1):92-95. |
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| Authors: | WANG Wei-tai |
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| Abstract: | The drought in the late spring and beginning summer is analyzed by EOF combined with the DH in Qingyang district. Its distribution feature and the development rule with time is analyzed and some suggestions are made. The influence on the corn output is pointed out. The forecast model is established by the step-by-step regression method. |
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| Keywords: | drought late spring and beginning summer weather feature forecast model |
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