基于智能计算的广西大风短临预报预警系统的产品检验

利用机器学习和人工智能技术研发了广西大风短临预报预警系统,该系统的产品与同期广西各地气象局发布的大风预警信号(以下简称“人工预警”)进行比较分析。结果表明:(1)按业务评分规定,大风预警系统在漏报率和命中率方面更优,人工预警在TS评分和空报率方面更优;(2)有效提前预警情况下,大风预警系统在大风蓝色、黄色预警和不分级预警中TS评分较高。基于对大风预警系统和人工预警的数量、TS评分和预警提前量的差异分析,广西大风短临预报预警系统的产品性能达到同期人工预警水平。     

Distribution of the nonlinear random ocean wave period

Because of the intrinsic difficulty in determining distributions for wave periods, previous studies on wave period distribution models have not taken nonlinearity into account and have not performed well in terms of describing and statistically analyzing the probability density distribution of ocean waves. In this study, a statistical model of random waves is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. In addition, a new nonlinear probability distribution function for the wave period is presented with the parameters of spectral density width and nonlinear wave steepness, which is more reasonable as a physical mechanism. The magnitude of wave steepness determines the intensity of the nonlinear effect, while the spectral width only changes the energy distribution. The wave steepness is found to be an important parameter in terms of not only dynamics but also statistics. The value of wave steepness reflects the degree that the wave period distribution skews from the Cauchy distribution, and it also describes the variation in the distribution function, which resembles that of the wave surface elevation distribution and wave height distribution. We found that the distribution curves skew leftward and upward as the wave steepness increases. The wave period observations for the SZFII-1 buoy, made off the coast of Weihai (37°27.6′ N, 122°15.1′ E), China, are used to verify the new distribution. The coefficient of the correlation between the new distribution and the buoy data at different spectral widths (ν=0.3−0.5) is within the range of 0.968 6 to 0.991 7. In addition, the Longuet-Higgins (1975) and Sun (1988) distributions and the new distribution presented in this work are compared. The validations and comparisons indicate that the new nonlinear probability density distribution fits the buoy measurements better than the Longuet-Higgins and Sun distributions do. We believe that adoption of the new wave period distribution would improve traditional statistical wave theory.     

浙江开展海岛海域农牧化生产潜力巨大

文章叙述了浙江海岛在全国的资源优势,开展海岛海域农牧化生产活动的意义、现状、举措以及产业经济前景分析.     

"三副猛药"治"矿乱"——沁阳市常平国土资源所整治矿山开发秩序纪实

常平乡是沁阳市唯一的山区乡,矿产资源监管一直是沁阳市常平国土资源所日常管理工作的重中之重.尤其是今年六月份以来,该所针对监管工作中出现的新问题、新情况,创新思路,主动出击,以"三副猛药"严厉打击非法采矿行为,确保了辖区矿山安澜.     

南极夏季沿海海藻Phaeocystis Pouchetii繁殖与海水中溶解游离型氨基酸含量的关系

从1988年5月～1989年1月,对东南极维斯特福尔德丘陵地区,戴维斯考察站沿海海域水体中的溶解游离型氨基酸的含量进行了长期连续测定。结果表明,在该海域海水中溶解游离型氨基酸的总浓度略高于其他海海域、浓度变化范围在19～302nmol/dm~3之间。最大丰度出现在11月份,而从11月下旬开始氨基酸含量急剧下降,至12月底达到全年最低点,从1月初开始有所回升。 占据南极夏初海水中海藻类主导地位的海藻Phaeocystis Pouchetii,其爆发性的繁殖过程从11月底开始至翌年1月底2月初结束,高峰在1月初。在Phaeocystis Pouchetii繁殖期,溶解游离型氨基酸浓度的降低与海藻细胞数量的增加有明显的负相关关系。作者认为在Phaeocystis Pouchetii繁殖增长过程中,该藻细胞直接摄取或(和)通过附随着藻类本体迅速增长的细菌群摄取溶解游离型氨基酸。     

In vitro study of neuroendocrine regulation over the testicular development in mud crabs Scylla serrata

1 INTRODUCTION Ovarian development of female crustaceans is under the direct regulations of two neurohormones: gonad-inhibiting hormone (GIH) secreted by optic ganglia and gonad-stimulating hormone (GSH) se- creted by brain and thoracic ganglia (Fingerman…     

牛庄洼陷沙河街组超压系统发育特征及其演化

东营凹陷牛庄洼陷沙河街组发育有超压系统,这对油气运移和聚集过程有着重要的影响。在对超压系统现今发育特征研究的基础上,本文运用约束下数值模拟方法对牛庄洼陷超压系统的演化规律进行研究,并探讨了超压系统的主要形成机制。牛庄洼陷在沙河街组四段、沙河街组三段的下亚段和中亚段存在着超压系统,最大压力系数可以达到1.8,最大剩余压力超过了20MPa。自沙三段上亚段沉积期开始,超压系统开始发育。到东营组沉积期末,超压系统经历了大约10Ma的泄压过程。自新近系馆陶组沉积期,超压系统再次迅速增压,逐渐接近现今发育状况。上覆地层沙三段上亚段高沉积速率导致了超压系统的形成和早期剩余压力的增加,而水热增压和烃类物质大量生成联合造成超压系统晚期迅速增压。超压系统演化规律揭示出在油气主要运移期研究区古异常流体压力的分布状况,这为进一步开展牛庄洼陷油气运移和聚集过程的动力学研究提供了理论依据。     

新疆境内塔拉斯 费尔干纳断裂早侏罗世走滑的古地震证据

在野外考察过程中,于新疆乌恰地区早侏罗世康苏组沼泽相砂岩层中,发现并识别出软沉积物液化变形层,变形包括负载构造,球枕构造及卷曲变形构造。通过模拟试验的对比研究认为,该软沉积物变形机制与液化作用有关,触发沉积物液化的动力是古地震,并且根据地震震级与液化最大震中距的关系,推测出造成早侏罗世软沉积物变形的里氏地震震级为6相似文献   

新疆境内塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂早侏罗世走滑的古地震证据

在野外考察过程中,于新疆乌恰地区早侏罗世康苏组沼泽相砂岩层中,发现并识别出软沉积物液化变形层,变形包括负载构造,球-枕构造及卷曲变形构造。通过模拟试验的对比研究认为,该软沉积物变形机制与液化作用有关,触发沉积物液化的动力是古地震,并且根据地震震级与液化最大震中距的关系,推测出造成早侏罗世软沉积物变形的里氏地震震级为6相似文献