REGIONAL DISCREPANCIES OF THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN WARMING ON NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY IN THE YEARS OF DECAYING EL NIO

This study investigates the influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) warming on tropical cyclone(TC)genesis in different regions of the western North Pacific(WNP) from July to October(JASO) during the decaying El Nio. The results show significant negative TC frequency anomalies localized in the southeastern WNP. Correlation analysis indicates that a warm sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the TIO strongly suppresses TC genesis south of 21°N and east of 140°E in JASO. Reduced TC genesis over the southeastern WNP results from a weak monsoon trough and divergence and subsidence anomalies associated with an equatorial baroclinic Kelvin wave. Moreover,suppressed convection in response to a cold local SSTA, induced by the increased northeasterly connected by the wind-evaporation-SST positive feedback mechanism, is found unfavorable for TC genesis. Positive TC genesis anomalies are observed over higher latitudinal regions(at around 21°N, 140°E) and the western WNP because of enhanced convection along the northern flank of the WNP anomalous anticyclone and low-level convergence,respectively. Although local modulation(e.g., local SST) could have greater dominance over TC activity at higher latitudes in certain anomalous years(e.g., 1988), a warm TIO SSTA can still suppress TC genesis in lower latitudinal regions of the WNP. A better understanding of the contributions of TIO warming could help improve seasonal TC predictions over different regions of the WNP in years of decaying El Nio.     

路堤边坡稳定可靠度计算中的模型不确定性分析

基于均质路堤边坡Monte Carlo法的稳定可靠度计算,分析了临界滑面搜索策略和稳定分析方法两类模型不确定性对边坡可靠度的影响特性,讨论了边坡失效概率随土工参数变异性的变化规律。研究表明,选用不同的临界滑面搜索策略所得可靠度结果差异不大,参数滑面法（overall slope）的失效概率略大于均值滑面法（global minimum）,但差别对边坡稳定性分析没有实质性影响;土性参数变异水平是影响边坡可靠度的最重要因素,边坡在相同设计参数安全系数下的可靠度指标随参数变异性增大而急剧降低;不同稳定性分析方法对应的安全系数概率密度函数曲线形态基本一致,但失效概率差异明显,因此目标可靠度指标取值应与稳定性分析方法相适应。提出的考虑土工参数变异水平的安全系数取值修正原则,对改进确定性设计的边坡稳定分析技术有积极意义。     

快速城市化地区土地利用变化的人文因素分析—以泉州市为例

基于1988年的TM影像和2000年的ASTER影像解译的福建省泉州市两期土地利用数据,在GIS支持下揭示了研究期内泉州市土地利用的结构变化特征,并从定性与定量的角度探讨了土地利用变化的人文因素与驱动机制。研究结果表明：人口增长、城镇化和工业化、农业结构调整、城镇居民消费水平、技术进步和土地集约利用是泉州市土地利用变化的主导驱动因子,闽南文化的价值观、居住方式的演化以及县域产业结构差异对泉州土地利用变化也有着深刻影响。     

2012年南极长城站气象和海冰特征分析

基于中国第28次南极科学考察长城站越冬期间获取的常规气象和海冰观测资料,结合统计的1985—2010年气候值,对比分析了长城站2012年的气象及海冰特征。气象分析表明,该年平均气压和气温偏低,N—W风向频率显著偏低,E—SE风向频率显著偏高;雾日偏少,降雪量、吹雪及雪暴显著偏多;针对观测期间某些月份比较明显的气象要素和天气现象异常,从大气环流角度进行了分析解释。海冰观测表明,长城湾冰情变化受大气动力作用影响大,冰情稳定性差,外围海域海冰极不稳定,2012年4月至2012年11月冰情几经进退,先后交替出现3个完全冰冻和3个部分冰冻期。     

Development and application of an operational tide and storm surge prediction model for the seas around Taiwan

Storm surges are abnormal rises in sea level along coastal areas and are mainly formed by strong wind and atmospheric depressions.When storm surges coincide with high tide,coastal flooding can occur.Creating storm surge prediction systems has been an important and operational task worldwide.This study developed a coupled tide and storm surge numerical model of the seas around Taiwan for operational purposes at the Central Weather Bureau.The model was calibrated and verified by using tidal records from seas around Taiwan.Model skill was assessed based on measured records,and the results are presented in details.At 3-minute resolution,tides were generally well predicted,with the root mean-square errors of less than 0.11 m and an overall correlation of more than 0.9.Storms(winds and depressions) were introduced into the model forcing by using the parameter typhoon model.Five typical typhoons that threatened Taiwan were simulated for assessment.The surges were well predicted compared with the records.     

基于幂函数法则对放牧梯度上种群空间异质性的定量分析

 在呼伦贝尔草原的克氏针茅群落选择轻牧、中牧、重牧3个不同的放牧梯度,沿着50 m样线设置100个50 cm×50 cm的L型样方,每个L型样方内划分4个25 cm×25 cm的S型样方,以物种出现的频度（p）作为植被空间分布的观测指标,采用幂函数法则对放牧梯度上草原植物群落物种的空间异质性进行了定量研究。结果表明,在不同放牧强度下,种类结构发生明显改变,轻度放牧区羊草和星状刺骨藜、中度放牧区藜和糙隐子草、重度放牧区猪毛菜和多根葱具有高的出现频度,群落物种数随着放牧压力的增大而减小。整体来看,放牧梯度上物种的空间分布呈现明显的聚集分布,物种空间异质性（δi）随着放牧强度的增大而增加,拟合于幂函数规律曲线;群落的空间异质性（δc）随着轻牧-中牧-重牧放牧演替的进展呈现降低趋势,种群个体分布呈现片断化特征。在群落内部各个种群具有不同的异质化分布特点,物种结构主要表现出密集型种群和疏散型种群两大类型。这些趋势与种群的繁殖策略、生活史对策、群落的再生产策略等生理与生态特性密切相关。     

钙质石灰岩中桩基轴向承载特性的有限元分析

为了研究钙质石灰岩中桩基的合理设计理论及开发相关的变形破坏数值分析方法,利用弹塑性有限元方法对以硫球石灰岩作为持力层的桩基现场轴向载荷试验进行了数值分析。有限元分析中钙质石灰岩被假定为理想弹塑性材料。结果表明,如果能在有限元解析中合理地考虑桩侧摩阻力的低减效果,弹塑性有限元计算可以较好地模拟与分析钙质砂土中桩基的轴向承载力特性。最后还对开口钢管桩基的土塞效应的发生机制进行了分析。     

大洋多金属结核勘查DY95—8航次任务圆满完成

旨在进行大洋多金属结核勘查的DY95—8航次已于1998年12月2日圆满结束,历时199天,总航程25092海里。本航次利用高新技术手段完成了海底视像深拖调查、环境基线调查、富钴结壳前期调查、土工原位测试、多波束海底地形测量和结核拖网取样等六项主要