模拟退火算法在水驱气藏物质平衡计算中的应用

在利用物质平衡方程计算水驱气藏地质储量时 ,传统的试凑法虽然有一定科学合理性 ,但由于存在很多不确定参数 ,在精确计算中因工作量大 ,很难推广。为此 ,在分析水驱气藏物质平衡方程的基础上 ,建立最优化模型 ,并引入全局寻优性较好的模拟退火方法进行求解。经实际计算表明 ,方法具有全局收敛性 ,计算结果有较高可信度。     

塔里木河流域绿洲城镇发展与水土资源效益分析(英文)

This paper examines the spatial pattern of land and water resources as well as urbanization and their interactions in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China. In order to do so, we extract the data associated with efficiency of land and water resources and urbanization for the years of 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2008. Specifically the paper investigates the extent to which agglomeration of population and economic activities varies geographically and interplays with spatial pattern of resources efficiency through computation of Global Moran’s I index, Getis-Ord Gi* index and a coordinated development model. The method used provides clear evidence that urbanization, land and water resources efficiency have shown uneven spatial pattern due to oasis distribution, climate, and initial phase of urban development. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) Agglomeration and dispersion of urbanization are not consistent with those of land and water resources efficiency.(2) Evolution of the hot and cold spots of urbanization, and land and water resources efficiency, in different trajectories, indicate that there are no significant interactions between them.(3) The evidence that numbers of hot and cold spots of the three factors present varying structures reveals the dominance of unequal urban development in the study area.(4) Significant differences are also found between sub-river basins in terms of the three factors, which is a reflection of the complex physical geography of the area.(5) The degree of coordinated development of cities in the Tarim River Basin is generally low in part as a reflection of difference in spatial patterns of the three factors. It is also shown that the pattern of the degree of coordinated development is relatively stable compared with evolution of hot and cold spots of the three factors.     

CINRAD/CC雷达速调管运行状态控制

速调管性能直接影响到雷达探测的回波质量、运行成本和使用时间,目前使用和维护好速调管是雷达站提高业务质量和降低成本的主要环节之一.从云南6部CINRAD/CC雷达近年来的运行情况看,使用和维护好速调管是十分重要和必要的.以德宏、普洱的速调管使用维护为个例,在速调管工作原理的基础上,结合前期实际工作中经验,以收集极波形、发射功率和地物回波变化三项指标来判断运行性能状况.通过多年分析总结,电子枪通常是速调管的易损和易老化部件,对此主要提出速调管使用初期宜适当调高电子枪灯丝电流以使灯丝充分激活和保证新管具有较好的真空度;中期宜灯丝电流略低运行;晚期速调管的阴极发射能力可能会有所下降,在此时可又适当调高灯丝电流,以保证雷达探测的回波质量.通过对速调管工作阶段提出分段运行的新措施和建议,从实际效果看,在不影响探测质量的前提下应能提高速调管的使用时间,供同行探讨.对其他型号CINRAD雷达也应有较好的借鉴.     

北极夏季海冰反照率的观测和数值模拟试验

在中国第3次北极科学考察浮冰站开展了积雪/海冰反照率观测.本文对观测结果进行了分析,并结合一维高分辨雪/冰模式(HIGHTSI)对3个常用的反照率参数化方案在天气尺度的表现进行了评估.观测期间测站反照率变化范围0.75～0.85,其天气尺度变化同天气和表面冰、雪状况紧密相关,降雪和吹雪过程可改变表面积雪厚度及水平分布,...     

内蒙古沙锡拉特地区土壤地球化学特征及找矿方向

内蒙古沙锡拉特地区位于大兴安岭多金属成矿带中段,为明确找矿方向,对研究区进行1∶1万土壤地球化学测量。采用单元素异常、组合异常与因子分析对研究区土壤地球化学数据进行评价。单元素异常显示,Ag、Pb、Zn与Sn元素的异常规模大、强度高。组合异常圈定4个异常,分为Ag—Au—As—Sb与Bi—W—Pb—Zn—Sn两类。因子分析将所分析元素分为五组,其中F1因子由Ag—Au—As—Sb元素组成,F2因子由Pb—Zn—Sn元素组成。根据土壤地球化学异常特征与区域成矿地质条件,在本区圈定2个找矿靶区,BQ—1为Pb—Zn—Sn找矿靶区,BQ—2为Ag找矿靶区。     

能源地缘政治视角下中国与中亚—俄罗斯国际能源合作模式

中亚与俄罗斯油气资源丰富,是中国未来开展国际油气资源合作,实现油气进口多元化和能源运输安全的重要战略区域。从俄罗斯、美国、中国以及中亚自身的战略需求方面刻画中亚地区大国博弈的能源地缘政治格局及其演变,并对中国与俄罗斯、中亚各国的能源合作特征进行详细分析。研究发现:中国与中亚各国之间的能源合作进展顺利,并呈现出多元化的发展趋势,已从单纯的油气贸易向油气产业的上下游进行拓展,但是中国与俄罗斯的合作因地缘政治战略、价格因素等一波三折,乌克兰危机之后,双方合作出现新的战略机遇。针对在中亚能源合作可能遇到的大国地缘政治博弈、俄罗斯的政策不确定性、中亚各国的局部冲突以及可能存在的资源国有化和来自国际石油公司的剧烈竞争,提出未来中国可以采取贷款换资源合作模式、双向合作模式与中亚国家石油公司联合经营模式、探索上海合作组织框架内的油气资源供求一体化模式以及油气经贸一体化合作模式,以尽可能地降低能源合作风险。     

从“路径创造”到“路径锁定”：港澳台投资与外商投资影响珠三角产业动态的比较分析

随着改革开放的深入,港澳台及外商投资在珠三角地区产业转型过程中的弊端逐渐暴露,部分港澳台/外资企业成为区域发展新路径的阻碍,但已有研究对此讨论不足。因此,论文基于2000—2019年珠三角地区地级市行政区制造业的面板数据,构建了路径依赖与路径突破指数,通过固定面板回归模型,探究比较港澳台投资与外商投资对珠三角地区产业动态的影响。结果发现：港澳台投资有利于路径依赖型新产业出现,促进地方产业的相关多样化发展,更强的本地嵌入性是主要原因;外商投资则会降低地方产业路径突破的可能,并通过强化产业集中度,导致路径锁定。此外,政府补贴会强化外商投资的路径锁定效应。研究结论对完善产业演化理论和优化中国港澳台及外商投资政策导向具有重要启示。     

自贡西山公园山脊场地地形和土层效应数值模拟

利用自贡地形影响强震动观测台阵在汶川地震中获得的强震动记录,以位于山脚下基岩上的台站为参考点,采用传统谱比法对场地放大效应进行了初步分析;同时用显式有限元-有限差分方法模拟了自贡西山公园山脊场地地形和土层的地震动效应,并进行了数值模拟结果与强震动观测结果的对比分析.结果表明:上覆土层对地震动的放大作用相对于地形变化的放大作用更为明显;地形对地震动水平分量的放大效应要明显于对竖直分量的放大效应;采用二维模型对上覆土层的模拟与观测结果较吻合,对于基岩介质部分的模拟在低频范围内也能反映山脊地形对地震动的影响.     

China＇s economic development stage and its spatiotemporal evolution： A prefectural-level analysis

As important mechanisms of regional strategy and policy,prefecture-level regions have played an increasingly significant role in the development of China’s economy.However,little research has grasped the essence of the economic development stage and the spatio-temporal evolution process at the prefecture level;this may lead to biased policies and their ineffective implementations.Based on Chenery’s economic development theory,this paper identifies China’s economic development stages at both national and prefectural levels.Both the Global Moran I index and the Getis-Ord Gi* index are employed to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of China’s economic development from 1990 to 2010.Major conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) China’s economic development is generally in the state of agglomeration.It entered the Primary Production Stage in 1990,and the Middle Industrialized Stage in 2010,with a ’balanced-unbalanced-gradually rebalanced’ pattern in the process.(2) China’s rapid economic growth experienced a spatial shift from the coastal areas to the the inland areas.Most advanced cities in mid-western China can be roughly categorized into regional hub cities and resource-dependent cities.(3) Hot spots in China’s economy moved northward and westward.The interactions between cities and prefectures became weaker in Eastern China,while cities and prefectures in Central and Western China were still at the stage of individual development,with limited effect on the surrounding cities.(4) While the overall growth rate of China’s economy has gradually slowed down during the past two decades,the growth rate of cities and prefectures in Central and Western China was much faster than those in coastal areas.(5) Areas rich in resources,such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia,have become the new hot spots of economic growth in recent years.For these regions,however,more attention needs to be paid to their unbalanced industrial structures and the lagging social development against the backdrop of the rapid economic growth,driven predominantly by the exploitation of resources.     

川西坳陷中段上三叠统须二段致密砂岩孔隙度演化史

川西坳陷深层上三叠统须家河组经历的地史时间长,构造期次多,成岩作用改造普遍,储层致密化严重,导致致密砂岩气藏成因机制研究困难,其中孔隙度演化史的研究是该区致密气藏成因类型的判识和天然气勘探的关键。在利用显微镜观察、扫描电镜分析、阴极发光分析等认识了储层成岩作用特征的基础上,结合自生矿物中流体包裹体的均一化温度和古地温梯度等,建立了须二段储层的成岩作用序列,并确定了成岩矿物形成时间。在充分考虑沉积过程中的粒度、分选性等岩相特征对原生孔隙的影响,及压实作用、胶结和溶蚀等成岩作用对孔隙度演化的影响前提下,分成岩作用阶段建立了孔隙度演化的定量模型。研究结果表明,川西坳陷须二段储层致密化时间较早,一般在晚成岩作用早期,即晚侏罗世的早期已经基本致密化,但不同的气藏由于储层的岩相特征和成岩作用特征存在差异,导致储层致密化时间存在一定差异。