应用统计物理方法分析川滇地区地震危险性

川滇菱形块体及其边界断裂带(21°～33°N,96°～108°E)是中国大陆地震活动最强烈的地区之一,该地区发生的一系列大地震造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失。文中分别应用基于地震空间相关性和地壳形变场的预测方法分析了该地区未来的地震危险性。由Kagan等(1994)提出的基于地震空间相关性的方法,假定未来发生地震的概率与历史发生地震的频度成正比,根据历史地震目录建立统计学模型估计未来发生地震的概率。回溯性检验表明,这种方法对于评估地震复发周期较短的断裂带的地震危险性有较高的有效性,但对于地震复发周期较长的断裂带,如龙门山断裂带,很难给出一个理想的预期。由Shen等(2007)提出的基于地壳形变场的方法,假定长期地震危险性与地壳构造应变率成正比,根据由GPS观测获得的应变率场建立统计学模型评估未来的地震危险性。回溯性检验表明,川滇地区过去30a间发生的地震与区域应变率的大小没有明显的对应关系,但过去500a间发生的地震与应变率场有很高的相关性,表明由10a时间尺度的大地测量资料得到的地壳应变场可以很好地反映数百a时间尺度的地震危险性。     

赤道海洋波致Lagrange余流的弱非线性动力学模型及其解

基于一个连续层化赤道海洋波动的弱非线性动力学系统,推导并建立了由最低阶Ｌａｇｒａｎｇｅ余流体现的包含波致、风生等效应在内的热带海洋余环流基本方程组,经分析发现,零阶赤道以动自身的非线性耦合可产生一阶余流,其量级对于热带上层海洋准定常环流而言是不可忽略的。波致环流的产生紧缩联系于Ｌａｇｒａｎｇｅ轨迹运动与波流的非线性耦合效应,所导出的最低阶赤道波致Ｌａｇｒａｎｇｅ余 一般解具有与零阶波动不同的垂直与     

Seasonal variability of zonal heat advection in the mixed layer of the tropical Pacific

Zonal heat advection （ZHA） plays an important role in the variability of the thermal structure in the tropical Pacific Ocean, especially in the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP）. Using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） Version 2.02/4 for the period 1958-2007, this paper presents a detailed analysis of the climatological and seasonal ZHA in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Climatologically, ZHA shows a zonal- band spatial pattern associated with equatorial currents and contributes to forming the irregular eastern boundary of the WPWP （EBWP）. Seasonal variation of ZHA with a positive peak from February to July is most prominent in the Nifio3.4 region, where the EBWP is located. The physical mechanism of the seasonal cycle in this region is examined. The mean advection of anomalous temperature, anomalous advection of mean temperature and eddy advection account for 31%, 51%, and 18% of the total seasonal variations, respectively. This suggests that seasonal changes of the South Equatorial Current induced by variability of the trade winds are the dominant contributor to the anomalous advection of mean temperature and hence, the seasonality of ZHA. Heat budget analysis shows that ZHA and surface heat flux make comparable contributions to the seasonal heat variation in the Nifio3.4 region, and that ZHA cools the upper ocean throughout the calendar year except in late boreal spring. The connection between ZHA and EBWP is further explored and a statistical relationship between EBWP, ZHA and surface heat flux is established based on least squares fitting.     

热带印度洋Dipole事件的两种模态

研究了印度洋Dipole事件期间热带太平洋．印度洋海洋次表层海温异常和海面风应力异常分布主要型,揭示了Dipole事件的两种模态,探讨了其形成机制,得到如下结果：（1）印度洋Dipole事件在热带印度洋次表层海温异常表现为“〈”型的东西向偶极子分布,“〈”以东的热带东印度洋为沿赤道呈舌状西伸的显著海温异常中心,“〈”以西的热带中西印度洋为反号的、以赤道为准对称的南强北弱显著海温异常中心．（2）印度洋Dipole事件由两种模态构成,二者具相同空间分布但具不同的时间变率,它们是两个独立的大尺度海气相互作用的结果．Dipole事件第一模态源于热带太平洋一印度洋尺度海气相互作用,它与ENSO事件共存．Dipole事件第二模态起因于热带印度洋尺度海气相互作用,它与Mascarene高压位置和强度变化紧密联系．当二者位相一致时,产生强Dipole事件,二者位相相反时,Dipole事件很弱或消失,一者较强时,Dipole事件一般也较强．（3）印度洋Dipole事件是热带印度洋海面异常风应力强迫的结果,海面异常风应力作用下产生的垂直输送导致海水堆积和涌升是造成次表层海温异常的主要动力过程．当赤道印度洋为异常东风时,热带东印度洋冷海水上升,热带西印度洋暖海水堆积,热带印度洋温跃层东浅西深;由于Coriolis力的作用,赤道海域离赤道流造成冷海水上升,赤道印度洋温跃层变浅;赤道两侧热带印度洋异常反气旋环流及旋度场,造成该异常旋度中心区域暖海水堆积,赤道外热带印度洋温跃层加深．三者共同作用产生正位相Dipole事件．热带印度洋为异常西风时,动力过程相反,产生负位相Dipole事件．     

Erratum to: Seasonal variability of zonal heat advection in the mixed layer of the tropical Pacific

<正>Erratum to:Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology Vol.31 No.6,P.1356-1367,2013http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00343-014-3019-4The supporting grant information on the footnote of the original version of this article needs to be altered and updated.The new information is given below.     

南太平洋和南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉率的长期变化趋势

亚南极模态水(sub-Antarctic mode water,SAMW)的潜沉过程与全球变暖减缓现象密切相关。为了增进对亚南极模态水长期变化特征的认识,使用一个高分辨率长时间序列的海洋模式数据对SAMW的潜沉率变化趋势的空间分布进行了系统地分析。结果显示,在1958~2016年间,SAMW的潜沉量在南太平洋和南印度洋在长时间段上存在着相反的趋势变化,即在南太平洋增大,在南印度洋减少,这与已有研究结果相符。但进一步的分析发现,SAMW潜沉量的空间分布存在着明显的差异。在南印度洋,其北部潜沉区的潜沉率仅有很微弱的上升趋势,而位于南部潜沉区的潜沉率则有明显的下降趋势。与此同时,在南太平洋中,其西部潜沉区的潜沉率趋势非常小,而东部潜沉区的水的潜沉有明显上升的长期趋势。总体而言,密度较大的SAMW潜沉水团比密度较小的潜沉水团表现出更显著的长期变化的趋势。南部变化趋势明显的潜沉水量大概占总潜沉水量的60%,由此可知SAMW的总体趋势更多地来自其南部密度更大的潜沉区的贡献。进一步的分析表明,SAMW潜沉区的混合层的长期变化趋势与潜沉率的长期变化趋势之间存在较为一致的空间分布。其中,在南太平洋,东侧潜沉区的混合层的长期增大趋势,主要由于风应力增大的作用,而西侧潜沉区的混合层的长期减小趋势,则主要因为海表浮力强迫的控制;在南印度洋,南侧潜沉区的潜沉率长期减小趋势更多的是受到浮力强迫的影响,而西北部的潜沉率长期增加趋势则主要由风应力增强导致的。     

An N-shape thermal front in the western South Yellow Sea in winter

An N-shape thermal front in the western South Yellow Sea (YS) in winter was detected using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiation (AVHRR) Sea Surface Temperature data and in-situ observations with a merged front-detecting method. The front, which exists from late October through early March, consists of western and eastern wings extending roughly along the northeast-southwest isobaths with a southeastward middle segment across the 20–50 m isobaths. There are north and south inflexions connecting the middle segment with the western and eastern wings, respectively. The middle segment gradually moves southwestward from November through February with its length increasing from 62 km to 107 km and the southern inflexion moving from 36.2°N to 35.3°N. A cold tongue is found to coexist with the N-shape front, and is carried by the coastal jet penetrating southward from the tip of the Shandong Peninsula into the western South YS as revealed by a numerical simulation. After departing from the coast, the jet flows as an anti-cyclonic recirculation below 10 m depth, trapping warmer water originally carried by the compensating Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC). A northwestward flowing branch of the YSWC is also found on the lowest level south of the front. The N-shape front initially forms between the cold tongue and warm water involved in the subsurface anti-cyclonical recirculation and extends upwards to the surface through vertical advection and mixing. Correlation analyses reveal that northerly and easterly winds tend to be favorable to the formation and extension of the N-shape front probably through strengthening of the coastal jet and shifting the YSWC pathway eastward, respectively.     

2010年玉树地震震前甘孜-玉树断裂形变场分析

2010年4月14日青海玉树MW6.9地震发震断层为甘孜-玉树断裂NW段.断裂错动速率的准确估计能够为认识发震断裂的结构和地震的孕震过程提供帮助,甘孜-玉树断裂周边地区(89°～103°E,28°-39°N)1999-2007年的GPS观测使之成为可能.去除受到断裂锁定效应或其他断裂位错影响的数据后,将跨断裂剖面上的台...     

新疆哈密大南湖钠硝石矿床地质特征及成因探讨

1区域地质背景大南湖凹陷盆地是新疆吐哈中生代盆地东段南缘的一个次级构造单元,在地质历史演化过程中发生了多期次、多阶段的构造运动。华力西运动晚期形成吐哈断陷盆地的雏形,中生界侏罗系西山窑组是大南湖地区主要成煤期。新生代中新世-早更新世晚期伴随着喜马拉雅运动板块碰撞的加剧,盆地北缘较南缘活动强烈,从而形