农业资源信息标准参考模型研究

为满足全社会对农业资源信息共享的迫切需求,使农业资源信息标准化的工作在统一的框架下进行,借鉴国际地理信息标准制定的思路,初步提出了农业资源信息标准化的技术框架--农业资源信息标准参考模型。该标准参考模型是由指导标准、通用标准、专用标准和领域标准等三个部分组成。本文重点阐述了5个指导标准、4类通用标准的标准组成和要点,提出依据基础标准制定专用标准作为农业资源信息较低层次标准制定的重要原则与方法。农业资源信息标准参考模型对于以信息的积累与服务为主的行业信息标准化具有普遍的指导意义。     

“一带一路”沿线区域耕地格局变化（英文）

The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia,Africa and Europe.In this study,we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries(64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration.We apply FAO statistics and Globe Land30(the world's finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution),and develop three indicator groups(namely quantity,conversion,and utilization degree) for the analysis.The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10~4 km~2 between 2000 and 2010.The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia,while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China.Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10~4 km~2 cultivated land area,followed by Hungary(0.66×10~4 km~2) and India(0.57×10~4 km`2).China decreased 1.95×10~4 km~2 cultivated land area,followed by Bangladesh(–0.22×10~4 km~2) and Thailand(–0.22×10~4 km~2).Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest,grassland,artificial surfaces and bare land,and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics:while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces,considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia.The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe,while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries.Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic-focused studies,as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses.Nevertheless,the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China' "Go Out policy" would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.     

2000–2050年东北三省土地利用时空格局变化过程模拟及其生态服务影响研究（英文）

Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications.Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use,but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking.Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China(NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security(ESS),food security(FSS) and comprehensive development(CDS).The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005.Overall,the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%.Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain,forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains,while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands.Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan,the ecological service value(ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050.The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios.Thus,CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection,especially for the wetlands,which should be given higher priority for future development.The issue of coordination is also critical in future development.The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.     

南黄海海域M≥6强震趋势预测及其论证分析研究

南黄海地区是我国东部中强地震活动最为活跃的地区之一,自1846年以来,该研究区M≥6强震活动具有显著的可公度性和有序性,其主要有序值为74~75 a、57~58 a、11~12 a和5~6 a,其中74~75 a和57~58 a具有突出的预测作用.根据翁文波信息预测理论,在回顾总结成功预测1996年11月9日南黄海6.1级强震的基础上,深入研究了南黄海海域M≥6强震活动的可公度性及其预测功能,构建并完善了南黄海海域M≥6强震的二维和三维有序网络结构,对该区未来M≥6强震趋势进行了预测,并对预测的可能性与合理性进行了论证分析.研究结论表明：南黄海海域未来新一轮强震活跃幕的首次M≥6强震将发生在2053-2054年前后,未来第2次M≥6强震或强震群可能发生在2058-2059年前后.     

中国石油油气勘探面临的形势与陆上油气资源战略选区的五大领域

从油气公司的角度阐述了开展全国油气资源战略选区调查与评价工作的必要性和重要意义。分析了中国石油天然气股份有限公司油气勘探面临的形势，指出未来陆上油气资源战略选区主要有五大领域：前陆盆地、叠合盆地中下组合、青藏高原、中小型盆地和非常规油气。这几个勘探领域都有良好的资源条件，具有多个战略目标及较好的勘探前景。建议战略选区项目工作要遵循四大原则：战略性、前瞻性、基础性和风险性。     

AMSR-E微波极化指数与MODIS植被指数关系研究

首先，利用辐射传输方程对微波极化指数（MPI，Microwave Polarization Index)进行推导，以AMSR-E像元经纬度为控制条件，采集与之对应的MODIS植被指数（ LAI/NDVI），并将其平均值作为AMSR-E对应像元的值； 然后，对AMSR-E微波极化指数与LAI/NDVI进行相关分析。结果表明，MPI与LAI/NDVI之间存在着指数关系，而且频率越低，相关性越好。     

重大地震灾害链的时空有序性及其预测研究

重大地震与地震灾害链预测是当今世界地学前缘课题.本文通过国内外具体实例，重点介绍了重大地震灾害链的时空有序性、地震灾害链网络结构及其预测方法.     

土壤墒情观测常见问题及排除经验

针对土壤墒情观测编发报及应用中常遇到的问题,寻找问题的排除方法。     

小浪底工程岩体力学参数研究

本文系统研究了小浪底工程的岩体的强度特征,采用了室内试验,野外结构面统计,工程地质类比法、模型试验法和Hoek Brown的经验法,估算了工程岩体的力学指标,指出了上述各种方法中所存在的不足,认为在工程实践中,应尽可能使用多种估计方法,交叉校核所得参数,以提高参数的可靠性,保证工程的安全,节约投资。