青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。     

西太平洋暖池SST变异对山东夏季降水的影响

西太平洋暖池展布于热带太平洋中、西部海域，其水温终年高于28℃(Wyrtki，1989；张启龙等，1997)。其最主要特征是水温高，热含量丰富。西太平洋暖池是全球大洋表面水温(SST)最高的海域，也是全球大气运动最主要的热源地和对流活动的最活跃区。暖池以热量和水汽形式将大部分能量释放给大气，从而影响大气环流系统。海-气耦合模式研究表明(Philander，1990)，暖池海域SST的变化，尤其是它处于高值时的微小变化会对大气环流演变产生十分显著的影响。近年来的一些研究结果也表明(黄荣辉等，1994；董敏等，1994)，暖池SST的异常会导致大气环流，尤其是西太平洋副热带高压的异常变化，进而影响东亚夏季降水。由此可见，暖池SST的变异对东亚乃至全球气候的异常及灾害的形成有着十分重要的作用。 山东位于我国东部，是旱涝灾害多发的省份之一。山东全年的降水量主要集中在夏季(6~8月)，其夏季降水量占全年降水量的60%以上。可见，夏季降水量的多寡对山东全年的天气变化和农业生产有重要影响。因此，开展山东夏季降水及其长期预测研究不仅具有重要的学术意义而且还有深远的现实意义。 近年来，许多学者已就西太平洋暖池热状态变异对我国东部地区汛期降水的影响进行了研究，并取得了一些颇有意义的成果(黄荣辉等，1994；翁学传等，1996)。然而，在以住的研究中，涉及西太平洋暖池对山东夏季降水影响的研究却很少，迄今尚未见专文报道。本文作者利用中国国家气候中心提供的1950~1998年间太平洋2°×2°经纬度格点月平均SST资料、1951~1998年间西太平洋副热带高压指数和1961~1999年间山东省气象台站的降水资料，研究了西太平洋暖池SST变异对山东夏季降水的影响，为山东夏季旱涝预测研究提供科学依据。     

Measurement of nuclides of uranium and thorium series of disequilibrium using γ-spectroscopy

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Bathymetry of the Tonga Trench and Forearc: a map series

Four new bathymetric maps of the Tonga Trench and forearc between 14 °S and 27 °S display the important morphologic and structural features of this dynamic convergent margin. The maps document a number of important geologic features of the margin. Major normal faults and fault lineaments on the Tonga platform can be traced along and across the upper trench slope. Numerous submarine canyons incised in the landward slope of the trench mark the pathways of sediment transport from the platform to mid- and lower-slope basins. Discontinuities in the trench axis and changes in the morphology of the landward slope can be clearly documented and may be associated with the passage and subduction of the Louisville Ridge and other structures on the subducting Pacific Plate. Changes in the morphology of the forearc as convergence changes from normal in the south to highly-oblique in the north are clearly documented. The bathymetric compilations, gridded at 500- and 200-m resolutions and extending along 500 km of the landward trench slope and axis, provide complete coverage of the outer forearc from the latitude of the Louisville Ridge-Tonga Trench collision to the northern terminus of the Tonga Ridge. These maps should serve as a valuable reference for other sea-going programs in the region, particularly the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) and the National Science Foundation MARGINS initiative.     

Comparisons between the influences of habitat, body size and season on the dietary composition of the sparid Acanthopagrus latus in a large marine embayment

Seasonal samples from Shark Bay on the west coast of Australia were used to determine (1) the habitats occupied by the juveniles and adults of Acanthopagrus latus in this large subtropical marine embayment and (2) the extent to which the dietary composition of this sparid is influenced by habitat type, body length and season. Sampling was undertaken in two habitat types in which A. latus was known to be abundant, namely mangrove (Avicennia marina) creeks and nearby rocky areas, the latter comprising sandstone boulders and/or limestone reefs. The mean total length ±95% CLs of A. latus was far lower in mangrove creeks, 126 ± 6.1 mm, than in rocky areas, 313 ± 4.7 mm. As A. latus attains maturity at ca. 245 mm, the juveniles of this species typically occupy mangrove areas and then, with increasing body size, move to nearshore rocky areas, where they become adults. The species composition of the food ingested by juvenile A. latus in mangrove creeks differed markedly from that of large juveniles and adults in rocky areas. Based on analyses of data for both habitat types combined, this difference was far greater than that between size classes and season, which was negligible. There were indications, however, that, overall within each habitat, the dietary composition did change seasonally, although not with body size. Acanthopagrus latus fed predominantly on mangrove material, sesarmid crabs and small gastropods in mangrove habitats, and mainly on Brachidontes ustulatus in rocky areas, where this mytilid bivalve is very abundant. The mangrove material, which contributed nearly 40% of its overall dietary volume in mangrove creeks, consisted mainly of lateral root primordia. This apparently unique food source for a teleost is presumably ingested through subsurface nipping, which would be facilitated by the mouth and dentitional characteristics of sparids. The almost total lack of correspondence in the dietary compositions of fish in the length class that was well represented in both mangrove and rocky areas illustrates the extent to which this sparid is capable of opportunistic feeding behaviour.     

Atmospheric forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

The increase in marine, land surface, atmospheric and satellite data during recent decades has led to an improved understanding of the air–sea interaction processes in the eastern tropical Pacific. This is also thanks to extensive diagnoses from conceptual and coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical models. In this paper, mean fields of atmospheric variables, such as incoming solar radiation, sea level pressure, winds, wind stress curl, precipitation, evaporation, and surface energy fluxes, are derived from global atmospheric data sets in order to examine the dominant features of the low level atmospheric circulations of the region. The seasonal march of the atmospheric circulations is presented to depict the role of radiative forcing on atmospheric perturbations, especially those dominating the atmosphere at low levels.In the tropics, the trade winds constitute an important north–south energy and moisture exchange mechanism (as part of the low level branch of the Hadley circulation), that determines to a large extent the precipitation distribution in the region, i.e., that associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Monsoonal circulations also play an important role in determining the warm season precipitation distribution over the eastern tropical Pacific through a large variety of air–sea–land interaction mechanisms. Westward traveling waves, tropical cyclones, low latitude cold air intrusions, and other synoptic and mesoscale perturbations associated with the ITCZ are also important elements that modulate the annual rainfall cycle. The low-level jets of the Gulf of California, the Intra-Americas Sea (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) and Chocó, Colombia are prominent features of the eastern tropical Pacific low-level circulations related to sub-regional and regional scale precipitation patterns. Observations show that the Intra-Americas Low-Level Jet intensity varies with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, however its origin and role in the westward propagation and development of disturbances that may hit the eastern tropical Pacific, such as easterly waves and tropical cyclones, are still unclear. Changes in the intensity of the trade winds in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (associated with eastern tropical Pacific wind jets) exert an important control on precipitation by means of wind–topography interactions. Gaps in the mountains of southern Mexico and Central America allow strong wind jets to pass over the continent imprinting a unique signal in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific.The warm pools of the Americas constitute an important source of moisture for the North American Monsoon System. The northeastern tropical Pacific is a region of intense cyclogenetic activity, just west of the coast of Mesoamerica. Over the oceanic regions, large-scale properties of key variables such as precipitation, moisture, surface energy fluxes and wind stress curl are still uncertain, which inhibits a more comprehensive view of the region and stresses the importance of regional field experiments. Progress has been substantial in the understanding of the ocean and atmospheric dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific, however, recent observational evidence such as that of a shallow meridional circulation cell in that region, in contrast to the classic concept of the Hadley-type deep meridional circulation, suggests that more in situ observations to validate theories are still necessary.This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.     

音响驯化技术在鲤养殖中的实验研究

探讨淡水养殖尤其是大水域网箱养鱼中由于投饵方式的不当和投饵量过多导致过剩饵料沉积引起水域环境污染的解决方法。本研究利用鱼类的听觉生物学特性,参考音响驯化技术的有关参数,结合投饵用400 Hz正弦波连续音对鲤(Cyprinus carpioLinnaeus)进行了音响驯化实验。结果表明,最初放声时,实验鱼产生惊愕反应,迅速离声源而去;但驯化6 d后,实验鱼在放声后迅速游向声源,摄食时间由最初的150 s缩短到实验后期的60 s。整个实验阶段放声组与对照组摄食时间差异极显著(P<0.01),摄食率和特定生长率无显著差异(P>0.05)。根据实验鱼的生长参数,求得了参考投饵量曲线和方程。本实验结果为音响驯化技术在淡水鱼养殖中的推广应用提供了基础数据。     

Effects of tributyltin at environmental levels on monooxygenase system of digestive gland in hard clam Meretrix meretrix

The effects on ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase （EROD）, NADPH-cytochrome c reductase and NADH cytochrorne b5 reductase activities of digestive gland in Meretrix meretrix exposed to tributyltin （TBT） at environmental levels （0.1,1.0,10.0 ng/dm as stannum concentration）,in experimental condition, were evaluated. The EROD, NADH cytochrorne b5 reductase activities were significantly inhibited after exposure to 10.0 ng/dm^3 TBT for 8 and 20 d, the NADPH cytochrorne c reductase activities were significantly inhibited after exposure to 0.1,1.0 and 10.0 ng/dm TBT for 8 d and to 1.0 and 10.0 ng/dm for 20 d, as compared with the matched control, while NADH cytochrorne b5 reductases and NADPH cytochrome c reductase activities were induced after exposure to 10.0 ng/dm^3 TBT for 2 d. The EROD activity in the 10 ng/dm^3 group,and the NADH cytochrome b5 reductases activities in 1.0 and 10.0 ng/dm groups, were significantly induced when transferred to clean recovery tanks for 7 d. The three enzymic activities in the clams exposed to TBT were recovered to the level corresponding to that of the control group after transfer to clean recovery tanks for 20 d. NADPH cytochrome c reductase activity in Meretrix meretrix seems to be more sensitive to exposure of TBT than that of the EROD and NADH cytochrome b5 reductases. The results suggest that induction and inhibition by TBT to the monooxygenase system enzymic activity in Meretrix meretrix would simultaneously exist. The enzymic activities were inhibited by exposure for a long time. The results suggest that inhibition of the monooxygenase system should be an indication of the exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of TBT for a long time.     

山东蓬莱大黑山岛碱性火山岩地球化学特征

庙岛群岛中的大黑山岛出露碱性火山岩,对研究壳-幔过程及黄、渤海演化具重要意义。文中作者对大黑山岛火山岩的常、微量元素、K-Ar年龄及Nd-Sr-Pb同位素体系进行测试确定。结果表明,岩石属钠质碱性玄武岩系列,岩浆岩喷发可分为8Ma前和8Ma后两个阶段;岩石常量元素含量除K2O、Na2O外差异小;随着火山岩的演化,岩浆源区深度变大;大黑山火山岩Nd-Sr-Pb同位素比值与夏威夷洋岛玄武岩相似,其岩浆的地幔端元组分为PREMA DM,又以PREMA为主,并有MORB物质混入。     

El Niño对东亚气候年际异常影响的数值模拟

根据1949~1998年期间8次显著El Niño事件合成的24个月年际海温异常(SSTAs)和气候平均的海温(SST),利用CCM3分别进行了3个包含10次积分的集合试验,即控制试验(CTRL),热带太平洋海洋全球大气试验(TOGA)以及整个太平洋海洋全球大气试验(TOGA-NP),通过对比分析这3个试验之间的集合模拟结果,揭示了在El Niño不同演变阶段东亚气候年际异常响应结构以及北太平洋年际SSTAs在此过程中的调制作用.结果表明:El Niño发展阶段夏季,东亚地区大气环流异常呈显著的负PJ波列,副热带高压减弱、偏东,东亚夏季风增强,东北和江淮流域降水偏多,华北和长江流域及其以南地区降水偏少;El Niño成熟阶段冬季,东亚大槽加强,东亚北部冬季风加强,西太平洋副热带地区低层有显著的反气旋式异常风场,华南地区降水显著增多;El Niño衰亡阶段夏季东亚气候年际异常型与其发展阶段夏季几乎相反.同时,北太平洋年际SSTAs对El Niño影响东亚气候年际异常有一定的调制作用,使模拟的我国降水异常分布更符合观测.