兰州市各县区经济发展水平统计分析研究

基于地理空间视角,本文运用第一次全国地理国情普查数据成果,结合社会经济统计数据,从经济综合实力、地表利用效益和产业集聚程度3个方面,对经济社会发展进行空间量化和综合性统计分析评价,全面科学地分析了兰州市各县区经济发展水平,为兰州市科学制订经济社会发展战略与规划提供参考依据。     

“三驾马车”对广西经济重心空间迁移的拉动分析

以往对"三驾马车"认知停留在其对经济增长的增量影响,缺乏空间方向概念。由此,以经济重心作为衡量经济空间结构的指标,并以广西为例,从拉动经济增长的消费、投资和出口"三驾马车"视角出发,通过重心和灰色关联度模型,对比分析"三驾马车"重心与经济重心的演化路径,进一步揭示三大拉力对经济重心空间迁移的影响。结果表明:2004—2014年广西经济重心迁移路径呈"S"型,2010,2013年分别为重心空间转向的拐点;在空间位置方面,与经济重心邻近程度由高至低依次是消费重心、投资重心和出口重心;在迁移路径方面,消费重心的移动距离最小且变动较为稳定;出口重心的移动距离最大,整体上呈往西南方向迁移态势;投资重心与经济重心的迁移路径在2009年以后的走势较为一致。在拉力作用方面,"三驾马车"对经济重心在不同阶段及不同方向上的影响强弱不一,整体而言是投资大于消费大于出口。     

广西基本公共服务与区域经济协调关系探讨

基本公共服务与区域经济的协调关系本质上是基本民生与经济发展如何兼顾的问题,也是区域协调发展的前沿研究内容。以广西为例,利用协调发展度模型对此展开研究,结果表明:在2004—2015年间,广西基本公共服务-区域经济协调发展水平整体偏低且时间变化稳定,具有经济滞后型特征;14个地级市的协调发展度及其时间趋势变化不一,并按北部湾经济区、西江经济带和桂西资源富集区的时序形成递减分布空间格局,区域差异极为明显。通过Theil指数分解,发现区域内差异是区域差异的最主要特征,并呈倒"V"型演变轨迹。提升基本公共服务与区域经济协调发展水平、缩小区域差异、注重社会经济发展是应有政策含义。     

浙江省人居环境气候适宜度概率分布分析

利用浙江省43年的气候资料,采用人体舒适度指数对浙江人居环境气候适宜度进行分析。结果表明:浙江省出现极热和极冷的概率极小,人居气候适宜度等级为Ⅰ(很冷,极不舒适)、Ⅷ级(热,很不舒适)的概率为0.07%和0.78%,出现Ⅸ级(很热,极不舒适)的概率基本为零;适宜度等级为Ⅳ—Ⅵ级(较舒适至舒适)的天气出现概率为55.0%,其中Ⅴ级(舒适)出现的概率最大,为33.1%。5月和10月是浙江人居环境气候适宜度最好的时段,其中Ⅴ级(舒适)天气出现概率的平均值超过99%;1月是浙江人居环境气候适宜度最低的月份;7月、8月中气候适宜度为Ⅶ级,即暖热不舒适的天气出现概率平均值分别为62.3%和42.8%,出现概率呈现沿海低于内陆,浙南低于浙北,浙中高、浙北浙南低的总体趋势。     

Housing-market bubble adjustment in coastal communities - A spatial and temporal analysis of housing prices in Midwest Pinellas County,Florida

This study aims to investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of housing prices associated with the 2007 U.S. housing-market bubble in Midwest Pinellas County, Florida. Two methods were used to examine the spatial and temporal dynamic of price levels: housing characteristic influence estimation and a hedonic modeling approach. Two consistent spatial patterns emerged in the estimated coefficients associated with various housing characteristics, with definitive changes occurring at 600 m and 2200 m from the coast. These changes suggested the existence of three geographical submarkets: a coastal, an intermediate or transitional, and an inland submarket. Three temporal stages were observed from the coefficient trends associated with various housing characteristics: 2002–2005 (bubble-growing), 2006–2008 (bubble-burst), and 2009–2011 (post-bubble). The hedonic models demonstrated a complexity in the determinant of housing prices during the housing peak-bubble period. The inclusion of submarket dummy variables in the hedonic models improved the amount of explained variation. The R² values of the hedonic models from 2002 through 2008, followed by a decrease after the bubble-burst period. The pre-bubble-burst trend in R² suggests that predictable market forces were at work; partly driven by irrational expectations of housing buyers and the perceptions of run-away housing prices during the growth phase of the bubble.     

Dynamics of Sea Ice and Spectrum of Ice Force

Spectrum and self-excite characters are the two significant characters of the dynamics of sea ice. The spectrum character of sea ice is mainly shown by the spectrum of ice force. The spectrum character of the sea ice is its intrinsic attributes. When the spectrum of ice force from the dynamic response of ice and structure interaction are evaluated, the effect of dynamic character of the structure must be eliminated. In this paper, the ice force spectrum at Bohai Bay and Liaodong Bay is evaluated from the displacement and strain responses of a single degree and a multi-degree freedom structure. The evaluated ice force spectrum can be used to define the spectrum character of ice in the analysis of ice induced vibration.     

Serpentinized peridotites as a possible source for oceanic magnetic anomalies

New data acquired on the slow spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge during several Legs of the Ocean Drilling Programme (ODP) give evidence that, in many places, serpentinized peridotites constitute the upper oceanic crust in the vicinity of rift valley. This discovery contradicts the classical view on the formation of oceanic crust at the ridge axis, which postulates that only basalts constitute the upper oceanic crust.The magnetic properties of 57 samples of such serpentinized peridotites, collected at five ODP sites in the Atlantic Ocean, have been analyzed in order to examine the origin and evolution of their natural remanent magnetization (NRM). All samples are characterized by NRM (average value about 3.5 A/M) comparable with NRM of altered oceanic basalts. Average Q-ratio (NRM to induced magnetization ratio) was about 2.The results reported here give evidence that serpentinization is a complex and irregular process. The local concentration of magnetite is determined by magnetostatic interaction between magnetic grains rather than volume concentration of magnetite. This local concentration, which represents the degree of serpentinization, affects the NRM value. The domain structure of magnetite grains developed during serpentinization is controlled by the degree of serpentinization.Experimental data show that original remanence of serpentinites exposed in the upper oceanic crust may contribute to the oceanic magnetic anomalies. In particular, serpentinites with magnetite of pseudodomain size represent a very probable source for magnetic anomalies. It is however unlikely that such ODP serpentinites systematically contribute to the oceanic magnetic lineations.     

空气质量对中国人口迁移的影响

随着中国流动人口群体构成和迁移模式的持续变化,空气质量等舒适性要素逐渐成为塑造人口迁移空间格局的重要因素。基于2000年以来的人口普查和抽样调查数据,本文探讨了空气质量对人口迁移影响的总体特征、变动趋势和作用模式。研究发现,空气质量已逐渐成为影响中国人口迁移格局的重要因素,且主要表现为推力作用。空气质量直接关系到人口迁出决策,污染严重的地区更难留住人;而在迁入地选择过程中,收入水平和就业机会则更为重要,但其影响近年来有所弱化,城市吸引力更加综合多元。此外,研究还验证了教育资源对人口迁移的导向性作用,并从人口迁移的角度发现了城市群作为城镇化主体形态的地位在持续强化。     

黄河流域国土空间开发格局优化研究——基于国土开发强度视角

构建科学适度有序的国土空间格局是实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的根本保证。基于成本-效益理论和空间均衡理论,构建国土开发限度和均衡度评估模型,研究2009—2017年黄河流域国土开发强度。结果表明：① 黄河流域国土空间开发已临近超载,可开发空间用地效益明显偏低。② 黄河流域国土开发空间差异悬殊,与国土利用的经济梯度基本吻合。③ 黄河流域国土开发供给能力总体偏低,水资源保障能力是最大约束。为此,建议：① 引导构筑流域重点保护与整体统筹的国土空间开发新秩序;② 建立流域生态格局、生态空间和一体化治理等长效治理新机制;③ 推进流域、区域以及流域内外竞合空间协同,探索黄河流域高质量发展新路径。     

环境行为学视角下城市滨水空间活力协调度研究

基于环境行为学相互渗透理论和环境心理学人-环境一致性理论,本研究以珠江前航道为例,从活力营造视角构建“人群-环境”活力互动模型,运用多源数据,使用熵权法、全局莫兰指数、局部莫兰指数等计量方法对滨水空间的活力协调度进行定量研究,并对滨水空间人群活力的时空特征、环境活力的空间格局及活力协调度空间格局进行总结,探讨滨水空间的活力协调机制,为提升城市滨水空间的活力协调度提出优化策略。结果表明：1）滨水空间人群活力具有明显空间分异特征,具有显著的空间正自相关性。随时间推移,热点区域呈现扩大—收敛的空间特征,冷点区域则呈现分散—集中的空间格局;2）滨水空间环境活力具有显著的空间分异特征,呈现西高东低的空间格局;3）滨水空间活力协调度呈现高、中和低3种活力协调状态,耦合协调状态的滞后系统主要为环境活力子系统;4）混合多样的城市功能,连续有韵律的城市景观和与水岸融合的生活性道路是滨水空间具备高活力协调度的关键。基于此,本研究提出以下优化策略：1）充分利用水景观资源（包括滨水空间内部的细微水体,如河涌和塘）,注重景观的连续性,优化滨水游憩体验。2）以活动作为契机营造滨水空间的故事性和记忆点,构建群体故事和群体记忆作为连接人群活力与环境活力相互交织的桥梁,使人与环境形成良性的互动,提升滨水空间活力协调度。3）关注低活力协调度滨水空间在水岸转型过程中社会关系冲突的调解,采用包容性规划的态度,鼓励滨水空间现状用地类型为农田的产权所有者种植兼具经济性和观赏性的作物。对于此类现状为非建设用地或生态景观导向的地区的开发建设,应审慎选择干预措施,以保障并提升其生态价值。