Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.     

生态敏感性限制下的城市建设用地适宜性评价

针对当前城市规划中对建设用地适宜性评价框架的不尽合理问题,以河南省西峡县为例构建了包含主导性和限制性逻辑的综合评价方案。利用遥感与地理信息系统相结合的方法,将生态敏感性作为限制性因素进行城市建设用地适宜性研究。研究区的分析结果显示:西峡县整体新增城镇建设区呈现南北区域不适宜而中间适宜的特征,而适宜和较适宜城市建设的用地主要分布在鹳河及其支流形成的河谷地带。但在中心城区外缘某些区域生态敏感性强,应禁止开发活动。研究结果有效体现出建设用地和生态用地的空间格局,对城市总体规划具有一定的参考价值。     

面向旅游规划的空间信息服务工作流构建

针对现有工作对规划支持不足的问题,该文通过集成空间信息服务、语义网络、Web服务发现与组合等技术,探索并建立了一套完整、有效,能充分提供旅游规划决策支持的空间信息服务工作流构建方法。阐述了面向旅游规划的空间信息服务工作流构建的关键技术,包括基于旅游规划本体库的空间信息服务发现方法,旅游规划语义驱动的空间信息服务组合算法,以及可靠的空间信息服务工作流过程调用机制。在此基础上开展实证研究,实现面向旅游规划的空间信息服务工作流原型系统,并对工作流构建关键方法的可行性进行了验证。     

An open source GIS‐based Planning Support System: Application to the land use plan of La Troncal,Ecuador

Planning Support Systems (PSS) comprise a wide variety of geo‐technological tools related to GIS and spatial modeling aimed at addressing land planning processes. This article describes the OpenRules system, a PSS based on a previous system called RULES. Among OpenRules new features are its architecture, based exclusively on free and open source software, and its applicability to all land use types, including rural and urban uses. In addition, OpenRules incorporates an unlimited number of land evaluation factors and a new objective in land use spatial allocation. OpenRules has been programmed in Java and implemented as a module of the free GIS software gvSIG, with full integration between the GIS and the decision support tools. Decision support tools include multicriteria evaluation, multiobjective linear programming and heuristic techniques, which support three basic stages of land use planning processes, namely land suitability evaluation, land use area optimization and land use spatial allocation. The application of OpenRules to the region of La Troncal, Ecuador, demonstrates its capability to generate alternative and coherent solutions through a scientific and justified procedure at low cost in terms of time and resources.     

Integrating cellular automata,artificial neural network,and fuzzy set theory to simulate threatened orchards: application to Maragheh,Iran

Urbanization processes challenge the growth of orchards in many cities in Iran. In Maragheh, orchards are crucial ecological, economical, and tourist sources. To explore orchards threatened by urban expansion, this study first aims to develop a new model by coupling cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural network with fuzzy set theory (CA–ANN–Fuzzy). While fuzzy set theory captures the uncertainty associated with transition rules, the ANN considers spatial and temporal nonlinearities of the driving forces underlying the urban growth processes. Second, the CA–ANN–Fuzzy model is compared with two existing approaches, namely a basic CA and a CA coupled with an ANN (CA–ANN). Third, we quantify the amount of orchard loss during the last three decades as well as for the upcoming years up to 2025. Results show that CA–ANN–Fuzzy with 83% kappa coefficient performs significantly better than conventional CA (with 51% kappa coefficient) and CA–ANN (with 79% kappa coefficient) models in simulating orchard loss. The historical data shows a considerable loss of 26% during the last three decades, while the CA–ANN–Fuzzy simulation reveals a considerable future loss of 7% of Maragheh’s orchards in 2025 due to urbanization. These areas require special attention and must be protected by the local government and decision-makers.     

青藏高原地区云水时空变化特征及其与降水的联系

利用1984-2009年ISCCP的云量、云光学厚度(COT)、云水路径(CWP)资料,分析了青藏高原云水的分布特征、变化趋势,及其与夏秋季降水、冬春季降雪的联系.结果表明:青藏高原地区大气中的云水有着显著的季节变化与水平分布差异;青藏高原春夏季总云量、高云云量高于秋冬季,CWP、COT与总云量的分布特征具有较好的一致性.高原云量高值区位于喀喇昆仑山与高原东南部;可可西里地区由于羌塘高压的下沉作用为云量低值区.青藏高原总云量在1984-2009年间呈现减少趋势;而CWP在高原总体以增加为主,但在各区域上的变化不一致,高原东部CWP增加而西部出现较弱的减小,这与来自孟加拉湾的水汽输送增加有关.青藏高原中东部地区夏秋季降水受云量减少影响较小而与CWP的增加相一致呈增长趋势;该地区冬春季降雪略有减少,与总云量的年际变化具有正相关.     

Analysis on Marine Science and Technology Strategy and Key Layout of Japan and the Inspirations to China

The Basic Ocean Law (BOL) and Basic Ocean Plan (BLP) are important guarantee for the maritime strategy of Japan, which has established a complete policy system for the development of marine science and technology. On the other hand, the Japanese Government has started some major marine strategies and plans to promote the BLP. In this paper, the marine science and technology plans launched by the Japanese Government and its participation in the international cooperative research projects were introduced. The research of Japan Marine Science and Technology Center and the University of Tokyo Institute of Oceanography in the long-term planning and focus on the layout features, deep sea research technology layout, contents and advanced equipment were analyzed. At last, some recommendations for China’s development on marine science and technology were proposed, such as strengthening the legislation work and process, carrying out research and development of marine infrastructure with independent intellectual property rights, actively participating in international large-scale ocean plan, improving the discourse right and enhancing national maritime awareness and suggestions and so on.     

点苍山-哀牢山杂岩带中北段嘎洒地区变沉积岩的成因矿物学与变质演化特征

点苍山-哀牢山变质杂岩带中北段嘎洒地区出露了多种典型的变沉积岩,其中夕线石榴黑云二长片麻岩和二云母片岩保存多期/多阶段矿物相转变特征,本文通过岩相学和矿物化学的综合分析,并结合传统矿物对温压计的估算结果,限定上述典型变沉积岩峰期角闪-麻粒岩相(M1)阶段、近等温减压-高温剪切变形阶段(M2)和晚期退变质(M3)阶段的矿物组合及变质温压条件。峰期角闪-麻粒岩相(M1)阶段的矿物组合为:石榴石(Grt)+板柱状夕线石(Sil1)+黑云母(Bt1)+钾长石(Kfs)+斜长石(Pl)+石英(Qtz)+钛铁矿(Ilm),变质温度压力条件为t=690~750℃,p=690~810 MPa;近等温减压-高温剪切变形阶段(M2)阶段,稳定矿物组合为:Grt+Sil2+Bt2+Kfs+Pl+Qtz+Ilm,黑云母在强烈走滑剪切作用下发生脱水熔融反应:2 Bt→Sil+6(Mg,Fe)O+K_2O+5 Qtz+2 H_2O,石榴石、黑云母和夕线石等受到剪切变形影响而发生强烈定向,形成的温度压力条件为t=650~720℃,p=450~630 MPa;晚期退变质阶段(M_3)的稳定矿物组合为:Qtz+Bt+Ms+Pl,退变的温度压力条件为t=580~640℃,p=400~500MPa。其变质演化p-T轨迹样式具有近等温减压的顺时针型式,表明点苍山-哀牢山变质杂岩带曾经历了一次明显的俯冲-碰撞造山事件,峰期变质可达到角闪-麻粒岩相;在碰撞后的构造折返过程中,上述变质岩石发生强烈的高温剪切变形作用,并伴随着黑云母等含水矿物的脱水熔融。     

小黄鱼(Pseudosciaena polyactis)形态性状与体质量的相关性及通径分析

为了研究野生小黄鱼(Pseudosciaena polyactis)繁殖后代的形态性状对体质量的影响作用,以随机采集的729尾4.5月龄小黄鱼为研究对象,对每尾个体的体质量(g)和8个形态性状(cm):全长(X1)、体长(X2)、头长(X3)、躯干长(X4)、尾部长(X5)、尾柄长(X6)、尾柄高(X7)和体高(X8)进行准确测定,运用相关分析、多元回归分析和通径分析方法,分别计算性状间的相关系数、构建形态性状与体质量的多元回归方程,获得了通径系数和决定系数,进行了养殖小黄鱼的形态性状对体质量的影响研究。结果显示,8个形态性状与体质量的相关系数均达到极显著水平(P0.01);通径分析中,4个形态性状对体质量的通径系数达到极显著水平(P0.01),它们是影响体质量的重要指标,其中体长(通径系数:0.589)对体质量的直接影响最大。应用逐步多元回归分析建立了以体质量为因变量(Y),体长(X2)、躯干长(X4)、尾柄高(X7)和体高(X8)为自变量的回归方程:Y=–32.377+3.064X2–1.511X4+14.285X7+4.438X8。模型等式中形态性状与体质量的相关指数R2=0.927,说明所选性状是影响体质量的主要形态性状。以上分析结果为小黄鱼的选育测量指标的确定提供了理论依据。     

From stormy seas to the doldrums: The challenges of navigating towards an ecologically coherent marine protected area network through England's Marine Conservation Zone process

There is an on-going process to establish Marine Conservation Zones (MCZs) in England, to form part of a coherent and representative network of marine protected areas under national and EU legislation. From 2009 to 2011, the MCZ process included strong participatory elements. Four regional multi-sector stakeholder groups developed MCZ recommendations collaboratively, in line with ecological guidance provided by the Government's nature conservation advisers. This guidance was based on Government policy principles, including that MCZs should be designated based on ‘best available evidence’. This paper analyses the multi-dimensional conflicts that emerged within the stakeholder group in south-west England, which were magnified by uncertainty about future MCZ management. In September 2011, after working through these conflicts through trade-offs and negotiations, the stakeholder groups jointly recommended 127 MCZs to Government. The process subsequently shifted to a top-down approach, with further stakeholder engagement limited to bilateral consultation. There was a concurrent shift in policy, from a broad-scale network-level focus towards single-feature conservation. A lengthy series of evidence reviews concluded that the existing evidence at the time was insufficient to progress with the designation of most sites, marking a clear departure from the policy principle of proceeding with the designation of a representative network based on ‘best available evidence’, and effectively undermining the work carried out by stakeholder groups. Though MCZ designation was originally timetabled for 2012, in November 2013 just 27 of the recommended 127 MCZs were designated in a first tranche. At the time, no clear timetable was in place for subsequent tranches.