台风“摩羯”与“温比亚”环流中龙卷小尺度涡旋特征及可预警性分析

利用多普勒天气雷达探测资料,结合常规气象观测资料和天气实况及灾情调查,对2018年8月14日台风“摩羯”（1814）和8月19日台风“温比亚”（1818）产生龙卷的环境物理量及龙卷风暴强度结构特征进行了分析,对诱发龙卷和未诱发龙卷的小尺度气旋性涡旋特征进行了对比。结果表明：两次台风减弱低压东北象限是龙卷发生的关键区,低层高湿,强的低层垂直风切变和大的相对风暴螺旋度是关键物理量;龙卷出现时都伴有ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1的小尺度气旋性涡旋,且基本出现在2.0 km高度以下,但并不是所有这种低层小尺度气旋性涡旋都能诱发龙卷;以ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1为阈值,龙卷识别具有较高的命中率,识别准确率为31.8%,空报率为67.4%,漏报率为6.7%;约35.7%的龙卷没有识别时间提前量,半数龙卷几乎没有预警时间提前量。     

中尺度非均—边界层气候的数值研究——(Ⅱ)夏季的数值试验

用修改的 Nickerson 等提出的中尺度模式,对我国北方夏季非均一下垫面上的边界层气候特征进行了研究。结果表明,在晴朗、静风和无扰动系统的条件下,下垫面的非均一性对边界层气候起着决定性的影响。边界层气候特征和低空急流强度与局地环流关系密切。干燥裸地上边界层内出现的逆湿现象,是由下垫面非均一的湿度场和中尺度平流共同引起的。     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION

In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.     

黑河实验(HEIFE)──对干旱地区陆面过程的一些新认识

综合介绍“黑河地区地气相互作用野外观测实验研究（ＨＥＩＦＥ）”的概况。系统分析干旱地区陆面过程的一些基本问题，它们是：（１）干旱地区地表面热量平衡的基本特征：干旱地区蒸发量很小，地表热量平衡中以感热为主．潜热可以忽略不计。（２）干旱地区陆面过程参数化问题：干旱地区能量和物质湍流输送的参数化必须考虑层结影响，否则将造成严重误差。（３）干旱地区一种特殊现象──绿洲与沙漠环境的相互作用：绿洲的“冷岛效应”和临近绿洲沙漠或戈壁的“逆湿现象”是这种相互作用的结果。这些研究结果将加深我们对干旱地区陆面过程的认识。     

中国人皮肤相对湿度的地理分布

根据Ｂｅｒｇｌｕｎｄ等人（１９８３）公式：Ｗ＝（ｅｓｋ－ｅａ）／（ｅｓｓｋ－ｅａ），利用大气温度，大气水汽压和皮肤温度的月平均值，计算皮肤相对湿度，并按皮肤相对湿度划分舒适带。结果表明，决定我国皮肤相对湿度地理分布的基本因素是纬度，海陆分布，地形和大气环流，季节不同，则各因素所起作用有差异。作者以皮肤相对湿度２５％－４５％表示舒适带，计算表明，我国气候舒适带有明显的地区差异和季节变化。     

Effect of relative humidity on the angular distribution of scattered light intensity for rural and urban aerosols

The change in atmospheric relative humidity affects the physical and optical properties of aerosol particles. It would be interesting to study the effect of an increase in relative humidity on the angular scattering of light by aerosols (by incorporating the changes due to it as the complex refractive index and the parameters of the size distribution function). In the present paper we have computed the angular scattering function for rural and urban aerosols, for light of wavelength 0.55 μn. The results obtained for these two models, representative of different environments, are interesting and show some discriminating features.     

有限区域短期数值预报业务系统简介

简要介绍了空军气象中心投入业务使用的《空军有限区域短期数值预报业务系统》的概况、采用的主要技术，检验评分结果，最后给出了天气学个例检验结果。     

Total precipitable water in the atmosphere over India

Electromagnetic radiation, in its passage through the atmosphere, is attenuated by absorption and scattering by atmospheric gases, dust and aerosols. The most important absorber is water vapour and the most significant parameter in atmospheric absorption studies is the total precipitable water in the atmosphere. The present paper summarises the results of a study made to compute the total precipitable water in the atmosphere over India using radiosonde and other data, as part of a programme for the computation of direct, global and diffuse solar radiation at the ground from the solar constant. Using values of air temperature and dew point from the ground up to 250 mb at 19 radiosonde stations and surface water vapour mixing ratio values at 105 surface observatories in India, precipitable water amounts have been computed for 124 stations, for each month and for the whole year. The paper describes the techniques used to extend the total precipitable water amounts derived from radiosonde data at 19 stations to 124 stations covering the major climatic zones in the country and presents the results in the form of 12 maps showing the spatial and temporal distribution of total precipitable water over India