Evaluation of dynamically downscaled reanalysis precipitation data for hydrological application

Skilful and reliable precipitation data are essential for seasonal hydrologic forecasting and generation of hydrological data. Although output from dynamic downscaling methods is used for hydrological application, the existence of systematic errors in dynamically downscaled data adversely affects the skill of hydrologic forecasting. This study evaluates the precipitation data derived by dynamically downscaling the global atmospheric reanalysis data by propagating them through three hydrological models. Hydrological models are calibrated for 28 watersheds located across the southeastern United States that is minimally affected by human intervention. Calibrated hydrological models are forced with five different types of datasets: global atmospheric reanalysis (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts 40‐year Reanalysis) at their native resolution; dynamically downscaled global atmospheric reanalysis at 10‐km grid resolution; stochastically generated data from weather generator; bias‐corrected dynamically downscaled; and bias‐corrected global reanalysis. The reanalysis products are considered as surrogates for large‐scale observations. Our study indicates that over the 28 watersheds in the southeastern United States, the simulated hydrological response to the bias‐corrected dynamically downscaled data is superior to the other four meteorological datasets. In comparison with synthetically generated meteorological forcing (from weather generator), the dynamically downscaled data from global atmospheric reanalysis result in more realistic hydrological simulations. Therefore, we conclude that dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, which offers data for sufficient number of years (in this case 22 years), although resource intensive, is relatively more useful than other sources of meteorological data with comparable period in simulating realistic hydrological response at watershed scales. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

冲孔灌注桩桩孔纠偏预防技术研究及应用

冲孔灌注桩虽然在各类地层都具有广泛的适用性,但是在复杂地质条件下,极易发生偏孔。结合某高层建筑冲孔灌注桩施工中频繁偏孔的情况,对冲孔过程中的偏孔问题进行全面分析研究。以桩孔纠偏预防为目标,从应对孤石和斜硬岩层2个方面来针对性进行研究,应对孤石时,合理控制钻头、冲程及冲孔频率;应对斜硬岩层时,研究了钻头增厚硬质合金块改进技术。经现场应用,有效地避免了偏孔的产生。     

基于煤层气井生产数据的储层含气量校正新方法

勘探实践发现沁水盆地潘庄、潘河区块及鄂尔多斯盆地保德区块煤层气井累计产量远远大于原始计算的地质探明储量。该现象对体积法计算的煤层气资源储量提出了挑战,同时为全面“上储增效”提出了新的方向。在采用体积法计算煤层气储量时,含气面积、含气量的准确性以及煤岩密度与煤层厚度的非均质特征都会对储量参数的准确性产生影响。其中,由于取心测试过程的局限性,煤层含气量的数值常存在一定的误差。本次研究基于鄂尔多斯盆地和沁水盆地的煤层气井生产数据并结合等温吸附实验结果提出了计算储层临界最低含气量的方法(临界最低法)。将校正后的临界最低含气量与实测含气量(基于美国矿业局直接法(USBM)和史密斯-威廉姆斯法)进行对比,并剖析含气量测试损失量的地质控制机理。结果表明:在中低至中高煤阶(R_o=0.7%~2.1%)范围,临界最低法计算的含气量总体高于其它两种方法计算的含气量,临界最低法在中低煤阶至中高煤阶具有较强的适应性。在高煤阶(R_o=2.1%~2.8%)范围,临界最低法计算结果可以与取心测试结果相互验证。总体上,煤层含气量测试(USBM法)损失量受不同煤阶煤岩孔裂隙发育特征、煤体结构、含气饱和度及逸散时间的影响。含气量测试损失量与孔渗发育特征、构造煤发育程度、含气饱和度及逸散时间呈正相关。此外,针对未取心的煤层气井,可以采用钻井岩屑测试等温吸附参数进而利用临界最低法求取储层含气量,为煤层气进一步的勘探开发提供数据基础。     

岩石热导率校正对大地热流计算值的影响——以渤海湾盆地冀中坳陷为例

岩石热导率是计算大地热流的基础热物性参数,热导率的选取和校正是正确评估热流的基础。当前在冀中坳陷乃至渤海湾盆地的大地热流计算中,多以受季节性气温变化和地下水活动等因素影响较小的古近系和新近系砂泥质岩层作为大地热流的计算层位,岩石热导率也多参考区域内已有定值,而忽略了热导率对水饱和度、温度和压力的依赖性。笔者等从岩石热导率的温压校正和饱水校正角度出发,计算并比较了不同校正方法对热流值的影响。主要认识如下：(1)岩石热导率作为1个受多因素综合影响的热物性参数,其大小与岩性和矿物组分密切相关,同时通常与孔隙率呈负相关,而与密度呈正相关;(2)热导率高温实验结果显示,冀中坳陷砂岩样品热导率总体上随温度的升高而降低,在30～130℃的温度区间热导率降低了6.8%～11.3%,热导率下降率具有随热导率的降低而减小的趋势;由于砂岩和泥岩具有相对较浅的埋深和较低的原位温压条件,温压对热导率的正负效应可以在一定程度上相互抵消,对于热导率小于2 W/(m·K)的样品,温压对其的影响较小。(3)饱水校正后的冀中坳陷JZ03井和JZ04井古近系—新近系砂泥岩热导率的平均偏差分别高达43.0%、47.5%;(4...     

气象产品的广义联合偏差修正方法及其应用

卫星气象产品、气候模式预测数据通常与地面观测数据存在偏差,为保证数据的可靠性和合理性,需要对其进行偏差校正,但偏差校正过程往往受具体区域气象特征、方法本身假定等因素的影响,导致修正效果不佳。为此,本文提出一种广义联合偏差修正方法,相较于现有研究最常用的单变量QM修正方法以及固定多变量修正顺序的JBC修正方法,该方法充分考虑到流域尺度降水和气温双变量的时空相关性,并结合其对径流的主导作用对变量修正顺序进行动态调整,实现了QM法和JBC法的优势互补。在澜沧江-湄公河流域的应用表明：考虑降水、气温相关性可显著改善降水和温度极值的修正效果,尤其是5、6月份,修正后气象与实测数据的纳什系数提升了0.5以上;考虑气象要素的修正次序显著降低了修正后的降水和温度频率分布及均值偏差;利用修正后的气象数据驱动分布式水文模型时,部分月份的径流模拟精度提升了54.3%。     

An Improved Method for Evaluating Hydrocarbon Generation of Shale: A Case Study of the Lower Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation Shale in the Songliao Basin

Because of the influence of hydrocarbons, especially adsorbed hydrocarbons, on the detection of cracked hydrocarbon (S2) and total organic carbon (TOC), the hydrogen index (HI)-based hydrocarbon generation model deviates from actual practice. In this study, the shale in the first member of the Qingshankou Formation in the central depression of the Songliao Basin, where in northeastern China, was taken as the research object and a correction method for S2 and TOC was established. By correcting the experimental results of different maturity samples, the actual hydrocarbon generation model has been revealed, the differences before and after correction compared, and the evolutionary characteristics of the adsorbed hydrocarbon content were clarified. The results show that the organic matter enters the hydrocarbon generation threshold at Ro–0.5% and reaches the hydrocarbon generation peak at Ro–1.0% and that the hydrocarbon generation process ends at Ro–1.3%. The hydrocarbon generation model established based on the measured values has a ‘lag effect’ compared to actual values, and this extends the hydrocarbon generation window of organic matter and delays the hydrocarbon generation peak. With the increase of maturity, adsorbed hydrocarbon content shows the characteristics of ‘first increasing, then stabilizing, and then decreasing’, and reaches the most abundant stage at Ro of 0.9%–1.3%.     

LandSat8热红外遥感数据在甘肃临夏市地热资源调查中的应用

利用热红外遥感技术进行地热异常信息的提取可以为地热资源勘查评价提供重要的依据。本文以甘肃临夏市为研究区,选用2013年10月11日、2015年2月3日、2021年2月19日、2021年3月23日LandSat8数据,采用大气校正法进行地表温度反演,结合地形及地质构造等资料,去除传感器因子、时间因子、温度因子、构造因子等假的地热异常,判读出由于地热资源引起的地热异常可能区域有9个。其中,7号区域实地勘查出地热资源。研究表明,利用长时间跨度的秋冬季节LandSat8热红外数据可以有效提取临夏市地热异常信息;热红外遥感方式在地热调查中能减少外业工作量,但不能代替传统地热勘探方法;结合地形地质资料判读时,必须与专业知识相结合才能取得较好的应用效果。     

松辽盆地北部岩石热导率及其影响因素

本次研究采用瞬态平面源法对松辽盆地北部76个钻孔的263个岩心样品进行了岩石热导率测试。岩心的实测热导率集中在0.58~3.00 W/(m·K)之间, 平均为(1.77±0.64) W/(m·K); 泥岩、粉砂岩、砂岩、砾岩平均热导率分别为(1.30±0.39) W/(m·K)、(1.89±0.64) W/(m·K)、(1.91±0.37) W/(m·K)、(2.18±0.57) W/(m·K); 变质岩、火成岩平均热导率分别为(2.75±0.67) W/(m·K)、(2.70±0.45) W/(m·K)。碎屑岩和凝灰岩热导率整体上呈现出随着埋深和地层年龄的增加而增大的趋势, 而砾岩和变质岩变化趋势不明显。分析了压实成岩作用、砂岩的矿物含量和岩石的变质作用对岩石热导率造成的影响。通过饱水测量获得了原位热导率, 对岩心的原位导热系数进行了修正。最后建立了松辽盆地北部地层热导率柱, 可以为研究区的热流计算、深部地温场建模、盆地热史恢复等提供地层热导率约束。