Paleoseismic activity on Wujiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault,inner Mongolia

Geomorphic study on Wjiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault,Inner Mongolia is made.Throuth analysis of the available data in combination with the results of predecessors‘studies it can be obtained that average vertical displacement rate is 0.48-0.75mm/a along the Wujiahe segment since the late Pleistocene(14.450-22.340ka BP)and 0.56-0.88mm/s since the early-middle Holocene(5.570-8.830ka BP).Analyzing paleoseismic phenomena revealed in the excavated 5trenches in combination with the results of predecessors‘studies of paleoearthquakes on the fault,we determine five paleoseismic events on the Wujiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault since 27.0ka BP and the recurrence interval to be about 4.300-4.400ka,A cluster of paleoearthquakes occurred probably during 8.000-9.000ka BP and two paleoeismic events in 10.000-20.000ka BP may be missed.A comparison between height of fault scarps and sum of displacement caused by paleoseismic events revealed in trenches,and recurrence interval of paleoseismic events obtained from average displacement rate along the fault and the disloca-tion by one event suggest that three paleoseismic events are absent in Alagaitu trench.Two paleoseismic events may be absent on the whole active fault segment.     

Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution ( M ≥6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recurrence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and considering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of M _S≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault. Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103034) and Major Research “Research on Assessment of Seismic Safety” from China Earthquake Administration during the tenth Five-year Plan.     

海原断裂带M6.7地震概率及其震级分布

海原断裂是中国西部的一条重要活动走滑断裂带，1920年沿该带发生的8.5级大震形成了长达230 km的地表破裂带和10 m的左旋走滑位移. 近10余年来，国内外学者对海原断裂开展了古地震研究，揭示出大量的古地震事件，为研究该断裂带上强震复发规律提供了重要的基础资料.本文利用这些古地震资料，采用泊松模型和布朗过程时间模型（Brownian passage time model），并考虑海原断裂带3个段落组合的不同尺度的破裂（单段破裂、双段破裂和全带破裂），经加权分析计算得到了海原断裂带未来百年强震（M6.7）复发的可能性及其震级分布. 计算结果表明，海原断裂带未来百年M6.7地震发生的可能性为0.035.      

后效严重型强震重复时间讨论

本文根据中国七个地区的古地震重复时间统计以及某些大震区的低电阻特性,建立了震源热模型并进行了定量计算。给出了后效严重型的大震(M≥7)的重复时间。     

2001年永胜6 级地震的地表破裂与程海断裂

综合研究结果表明程海断裂晚更新世晚期以来大地震活动的时间间隔在1500a以上,因此未来一定时间段内,程海断裂还主要以6级左右的中强震为主。     

探槽古地震事件识别标志及其定量化——以活动走滑断裂为例

探槽古地震事件的识别取决于对沉积地层中封存的构造变形和沉积响应的解译。基于国内外88篇走滑断裂古地震研究论文,系统总结分析了古地震事件的多种识别标志,主要包括地层的垂向错断、断层向上逐渐尖灭、生长地层、裂缝充填、角度不整合、砂土液化、崩积楔、褶皱等。这些识别标志的质量和数量是判别古地震事件的关键。综合分析认为,地震成因识别标志与非构造成因及蠕滑产生的变形不同,而不同识别标志对地震层位的限定有证据强弱之分。在充分考虑地域和人为因素的影响下,根据识别标志的强弱,对探槽揭露事件的地层证据进行半定量化分析,这在实际工作中不仅可以最大限度地降低误判地震事件的可能性,排除非地震成因变形的影响,也能更客观地反映地震事件的可信度。     

1679年三河-平谷8级地震破裂带的大地切片实验研究

大地切片调查法,就是在不搅动的状态下从地下切出未固结的第四纪浅部地层的垂直断片,它是一种较新的活动断层探测技术。发生在1679年9月2日的三河-平谷8级地震(烈度Ⅺ),是北京及附近地区历史上记录到的最大地震。在该地震的宏观震中——潘各庄附近,运用大地切片调查法对该地震破裂带进行了实验性探测,获得了较好的效果。实验研究表明:大地切片保留了完好的沉积细结构特征;大地切片调查实施时,要选择合适的动力源,对于北京平原这种黏土含量较高的沉积层,挖掘机加振动锤的动力组合优于吊车加振动锤的动力组合;大地切片由于振动会造成一定地层厚度的压缩,但黏土含量较高的北京地区,压缩比例基本<5%。另外,结合探槽和大地切片的对比分析,揭示了最近2次古地震事件,分别是1679年事件和该地震之前的一次事件,两次地震的垂直同震位移分别是1·4m和1·2m     

滇西南地区孟连断裂晚第四纪新活动特征初步研究

孟连断裂位于云南省西南部与缅甸交界地带,是川滇菱形块体南部一条规模较大的活动断裂带,总体呈NEE向延伸,长约90km,走向N70°E,倾向NW,倾角50°~60°,断裂晚第四纪活动较强烈,以左旋走滑为主,兼具有倾滑特征。通过卫星影像解译和野外调查发现,其断错地貌主要以线性断层崖为主,高度不等,其次为断层谷地、断层沟槽和断层垭口地貌,冲沟及阶地的水平位移多在几十米至几百米之间。在孟连县城西侧开挖的大型探槽中,揭露出多条断层,通过分析剖面和14C测年结果认为,孟连断裂晚第四纪发生过4次古地震事件,除最早一次年代较久远以外,其他3次均发生在全新世中晚期以来,最近一次古地震事件的年代为(1 860±30)~(1 090±30)a B.P.。     

更新模型在缺少大震离逝时间的活动断裂强震发生概率计算中的应用研究

利用更新模型计算未来几十年内发生强震的条件概率需要给出上一次大震的离逝时间T, 而很多活动断裂上缺少历史大震的记载, 若采用泊松模型则可能会低估强震发生的概率.针对这种缺少大震离逝时间的活动断裂, 本文提出一种以记载完整的强震平静期长度T_s为参数的条件概率计算方法. 以东昆仑断裂带塔藏段为实例, 利用本文给出的条件概率计算方法得到该段未来50年发生强震的可能性为0.0649.      

THE SLIP RATE AND PALEOEARTHQUAKES OF THE YUMEN FAULT IN THE NORTHERN QILIAN MOUNTAINS SINCE THE LATE PLEISTOCENE

The Yumen Fault lies on the west segment of the north Qilian Fault belt and adjacent to the Altyn-Tagh Fault,in the north margin of the Tibet Plateau.The tectonic location of the Yumen fault is special,and the fault is the evidence of recent activity of the northward growth of Tibetan plateau.In recent twenty years,many researches show the activity of the Yumen Fault became stronger from the early Pleistocene to the Holocene.Because the Yumen Fault is a new active fault and fold belt in the Qilian orogenic belt in the north margin of the Tibet Plateau,it is important to ascertain its slip rate and the recurrence interval of paleoearthquakes since the Late Pleistocene.Using the satellite image interpretation of the Beida river terrace,the GPS measurement of alluvial fans in front of the Yumen Fault and the trench excavation on the fault scarps,two conclusions are obtained in this paper.(1) The vertical slip rate of the Yumen Fault is about 0.41~0.48mm/a in the Holocene and about 0.24~0.30mm/a in the last stage of the late Pleistocene.(2) Since the Holocene epoch,four paleoearthquakes,which happened respectively in 6.12~10.53ka,3.6~5.38ka,1.64~1.93ka and 0.63~1.64ka,ruptured the surface scarps of the Yumen Fault.Overall,the recurrence interval of the paleoseismic events shortens gradually and the activity of the Yumen Fault becomes stronger since the Holocene.Anther characteristic is that every paleoearthquake probably ruptured multiple fault scarps at the same time.