“地震预警”法律概念的构成及延展

“地震预警”法律概念是讨论和规范地震预警相关行为的基础,也是地震预警立法首先要明确的问题。目前,国家层面尚未制定专门的地震预警法律法规,地方已经颁布的管理办法中对“地震预警”法律概念的规定也不完全一致。随着地震预警立法进程的不断推进,“地震预警”法律概念的确定和统一愈发重要和迫切。“地震预警”法律概念应涵括其技术属性和社会属性,秉持完整规范、避免歧义的原则,将时间、空间、机理和影响等要素排列组合而成。为深入理解这一概念,本文还讨论了发布主体、预警客体、技术服务、法律责任等地震预警法律规范的基本内容。     

大理州2005年初夏干旱成因探析

大理州2005年初夏出现了严重干旱气象事件.从500pHa高空环流特征、500pHa距平场特征、西太平洋副高特征量及北太平洋中低纬海温距平场、OLR距平场对这次干旱的成因进行了分析,分析结果表明：2005年初夏（4月1日～6月10日）降水异常偏少气温明显偏高是发生干旱的主要原因,高空大气环流异常、西太平洋副高持续偏强偏西、冷空气活动偏北是导致干旱的直接原因;孟加拉湾南部4月OLR场呈明显正距平,抑制低值系统的发展和东北移影响云南,是影响2005年大理初夏干旱重要原因;北太平洋中低纬海温特征与大理州初夏干旱有一定的遥相关性.     

Early diagenesis of nurtrients （C, N, P and Si） stored in sediments of two reservoirs in southwestern China

Damming is a common anthropogenic intervention along the course of rivers, which is defined as ＂artificial-lake effect＂, both in China and across the world. Today as many as 48000 dams and/or reservoirs are in operation in the Changjiang River （Yangtze River） drainage area, and more are being constructed. While damming is well known to affect riverbome nutrient loads, and thus the riverine ecosystems owing to removal of carbon fixation, and removal of particles in reservoir sediments, there is limited information on the detailed early diagenesis of sediments in reservoirs including the regeneration processes of nutrients deposited in sediments and exchange flux across the sediment-water interface, which is important for mass balance of riverbome nutrients. In the present study, two large-size reservoirs, Wujiangdu Reservoir （WJDR） and Dongfeng Reservoir （DFR）, located on the main steam of the Wujiang River and with uniformity hydrography and discrepancy biogeochemical activity （e. g. primary production）, were selected for a comparative study on the detailed processes of nutrient regeneration. Water, pore water and sediment were sampled from these two reservoirs and dissolved organic carbon （DOC）, NH4^＋, NO3^-, PO4^3-, dissolved silica （DSi） in the overlying water and pore water, and total organic matter in sediments were determined. The results of correlation analysis suggested that in these two reservoirs, processes of nutrient regeneration near the sediment-water interface were significantly different. As a result of rapid decomposition of algae-derived ＂labile＂ organic matter in upper sediments, nutrient regeneration processes and upward fluxes in WJDR are dramatically stronger than those of DFR. NH4^＋ upward flux from sediment in WJDR was about 17 times higher than that in DFR. PO4^3- flux in WJDR is about 13 times above that in DFR. DOC flux in WJDR is larger that in DFR by 5 times, and DSi by 1 time.     

Methylmercury and human biomarkers： Questioning the evidence

Methylmercury （MeHg） is a powerful neurotoxicant in humans. In terms of biomarkers of MeHg exposure, hair and blood have long been used in epidemiological studies as the biomarkers of choice. In fact, total hair mercury （Hg） content as well as organic blood Hg concentrations reflects exposure to organic Hg from food consumption. Extensive studies, establishing a constant and linear relation between MeHg intake versus Hg levels in hair and blood, were conducted by governmental officials to establish guidelines on safe levels of MeHg exposure, which were translated into threshold daily fish consumption rates （usually expressed as μg MeHg per kg bodyweight）. Nowadays, in most epidemiologic studies blood or hair mercury （Hg） level is commonly used as a valid proxy to estimate human exposure to methylmercury （MeHg） through fish consumption without relating this signal to actual fish consumption patterns among populations. Human variability in mercury toxicokinetics was identified and measurement error has been pointed out to be a substantial contributor to observed variability, particularly where dietary information is retrospective and self-reported. However, experimental evidence indicates that significant variability among individuals may exist in the biokinetics of mercury. Also recent findings from previous population-based studies through COMERN initiative also revealed that MeHg metabolic processes might greatly vary across populations. In fact, it is unlikely that the magnitude of the difference measured between observed and expected levels of mercury, given the reported intake, can be entirely explained by laboratory measurement errors or reporting bias.     

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

南海西南部曾母盆地早中新世以来沉降史分析

采用回剥法和局部均衡模式研究曾母盆地早中新世以来的沉降史，并探讨了该盆地构造演化特征。曾母盆地自早中新世以来经历了17．5-11．6Ma、11．6-5．5Ma、5．5-3．0Ma和3．0-0Ma的4次快速沉降作用，其构造演化受控于曾母地块与南沙地块及婆罗洲地块的碰撞和盆地两侧的万安-卢帕尔断裂与廷贾走滑断裂的综合作用，可划分为南北双向挤压（晚始新世-早中新世）、走滑改造（中中新世-晚中新世）和区域沉降（上新世-第四纪）3个演化阶段。     

区域生态地球化学评价思路及建议

区城生态地球化学评价是在多目标地球化学调查基础上开展的一项区域评价研究工作，其目的是为国家和所薪究地区的国民经济建设、工农业结构调整和社会可持续发展提供基础地球化学资料。区域生态地球化学评价以异常元素的来源-成因-迁移转化-生态效应-预测预警为研究主线，以生态系统为研究基本单元，查明异常元素分布、分配、成因及来源，研究它们在地球表层备大层圈中的迁移转化规律，评价它们所产生的生态效应，应用地球化学和生态学的基本原理和方法对污染的生态系统进行预测预警，井提出治理建议，为国家区域性经济战略调整和工农业可持续发展提供科学依据。     

地下水水质预警信息系统研究

地下水水质预警是对地下水水质现状及变化趋势适时给出相应给别警戒信息的方法，包括状态预警和趋势预警两部分。以GIS技术为核心，将水质预警模型与GIS技术相结合，建立了地下水水质预警信息系统。并以吉林省西部平原地区地下水水质为例，研究了该区地下水水质恶化地区的分布、趋势、恶化预警等级及其成因。地下水水质预警系统为地下水资源管理，减少地下水水质恶化的风险提供了科学依据。     

用翁氏模型图版设计早期油气田(藏)开发方案

由于缺乏早期资料，设计早期油气田（藏）开发方案是非常困难的。在制作翁氏模型的Qctm/No-ER图版和ER-ctR图版过程提出根据探明储量No、经济极限产量Qc、假定达到峰值产量的时间tm、最终采收率ER，由翁氏模型的Qctm/No-ER图版求取增长指数b，由翁氏模型ER-ctR图版求取ctR，再求出其他参数及所有的油气田（藏）开发指标，完成早期油气田（藏）开发方案设计。     

Small-Mammal Data on Early and Middle Holocene Climates and Biotic Communities in the Bonneville Basin, USA

Archaeological investigations in Camels Back Cave, western Utah, recovered a series of small-mammal bone assemblages from stratified deposits dating between ca. 12,000 and 500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. The cave's early Holocene fauna includes a number of species adapted to montane or mesic habitats containing grasses and/or sagebrush (e.g., Lepus townsendii, Marmota flaviventris, Reithrodontomys megalotis, and Brachylagus idahoensis) which suggest that the region was relatively cool and moist until after 8800 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Between ca. 8600 and 8100 ¹⁴C yr B.P. these mammals became locally extinct, taxonomic diversity declined, and there was an increase in species well-adapted to xeric, low-elevation habitats, including ground squirrels, Lepus californicus and Neotoma lepida. The early small-mammal record from Camels Back Cave is similar to the 11,300–6000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. mammalian sequence from Homestead Cave, northwestern Utah, and provides corroborative data on Bonneville Basin paleoenvironments and mammalian responses to middle Holocene desertification.