软件模块故障倾向预测方法研究

研究了在区分故障严重程度下的软件模块故障倾向预测方法,将故障分为高严重程度和低严重程度两种类型,用统计分析和机器学习方法分析静态代码度量与故障倾向之间的关系。以公开和私有两种类型的失效数据集作为实验数据,分析发现,故障的严重程度影响预测性能,预测不同严重程度的故障需要选择不同的度量和分类模型,预测低严重程度故障的性能好于预测高严重程度故障的性能。     

Assessment of various CPT based liquefaction severity index frameworks relative to the Ishihara (1985) H1–H2 boundary curves

The objective of the study presented herein is to develop an understanding of the predictive trends of four different liquefaction severity index frameworks, with emphasis on the utility of the frameworks for assessing liquefaction vulnerability in Christchurch, New Zealand. Liquefaction induced land damage was widespread following the four major earthquakes in Christchurch (M_w 5.9–7.1) between 4 September 2010 and 23 December 2011. As part of the rebuilding effort, a major focus, to date, has been on assessing/developing approaches for evaluating vulnerability to liquefaction induced damage in future events. The four liquefaction severity index frameworks that are evaluated herein are: the one-dimensional volumetric reconsolidation settlement (S_V1D), the Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI), and two new liquefaction severity indices developed following the major earthquakes in Christchurch, namely the Ishihara inspired LPI (LPI_ISH) and the Liquefaction Severity Number (LSN). To assess the predictive trends of the four severity index frameworks, the H₁–H₂ boundary curves developed by Ishihara (1985) are used as a reference of comparison. In large part, the severity index frameworks serve the same purpose as the Ishihara boundary curves, but they alleviate some of the difficulties in implementing the Ishihara boundary curves for assessing the highly stratified soil profiles that underlie much of Christchurch. A parametric study was performed wherein relatively simple soil profiles are evaluated using all the procedures and contour plots of calculated S_V1D, LPI, LPI_ISH, and LSN values were superimposed onto the Ishihara boundary curves. The results indicate that the LPI_ISH and LSN indices yield similar trends as the Ishihara boundary curves, whereas the S_V1D and LPI indices do not. Furthermore, little field data is available to assess the severity indices for the scenarios where the trends in the LPI_ISH and LSN indices differ.     

Comparison of ten notable meteorological drought indices on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow

ABSTRACT

Ten notable meteorological drought indices were compared on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow. A 730-month dataset of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for 88 catchments in Oregon, USA, representing pristine conditions, was used to compute the drought indices. These indices were correlated with the monthly streamflow datasets of the minimum, maximum and mean discharge, and the discharge monthly fluctuation; it was revealed that the 3-month Z-score drought index (Z3) has the best association with the four streamflow variables. The Mann-Kendall trend detection test applied to the latter index time series mainly highlighted a downward trend in the autumn and winter drought magnitude (DM) and an upward trend in the spring and summer DM (p = 0.05). Finally, the Pettitt test indicated an abrupt decline in the annual and autumn DM, which began in 1984 and 1986, respectively.     

Influences of forest roads and their edge effects on the spatial pattern of burn severity

Previous research has shown that forest roads are an important feature in many landscapes and have significant effects on wildfire ignition and cessation. However, forest road effects on burn severity have not been studied at the landscape level. Therefore, the overarching goal of our study is to identify the influences of road edge effects on the spatial patterns of burn severity. We analyzed six fires within the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest on the eastern slope of the Cascades mountain range of central Washington.We generated two categories for assessing road variables: (1) Primary Road Effect Zone (area within 150 m of the nearest road) and (2) Secondary Road Effect Zone (area from 150 m to 300 m to the nearest road). A regular sampling grid including one out of every 9 cells was created for each fire.These grids were intersected with burn severity data in the form of the Relative Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (RdNBR), road distance category, stream distance, elevation, slope, terrain shape index, heat load index, canopy cover, and fuel type. We fit spatial regression models with RdNBR as the dependent variable.We found that high burn severity is less likely to occur in the Primary Road Effect Zone for most fires, although one fire exhibited the opposite relationship. Forest road edge effects were hypothesized to be an important determinant of burn severity because fragmentation created by roads alters the roadside fuel profile and environment and because road corridors create barriers to fire spread. Recognizing roadside effects on burn severity patterns highlights the need for further study of the range of effects that roads have on fuels and the fire environment and the potential for incorporating road effects into landscape-level assessments of fire risk.     

A study on the identification of liquefaction-induced failures on ground surface based on the data from the 1999 Kocaeli and Chi-Chi earthquakes

One of the major causes of earthquake damage is liquefaction. However, it doesn't result in severe harm unless it leads to ground surface damage or ground failure. Therefore, prediction of potential for ground surface damage due to liquefaction is one of the important issues in microzonation studies for liquefaction-induced damage in areas with high seismicity. In 1985, based on a database compiled from Chinese and Japanese earthquakes, Ishihara considered the influence of the non-liquefied cap soil on the occurrence or non-occurrence of ground failure (mainly sand boiling), and proposed an empirical approach to predict the potential for ground surface damage at sites susceptible to liquefaction. However, some investigators indicated that this approach is not generally valid for sites susceptible to lateral spread or ground oscillation. In this study, a contribution to improve the approach by Ishihara is made. For the purpose, an index called liquefaction severity index (LSI) and data from two devastating earthquakes, which occurred in Turkey and Taiwan in 1999, were employed. The data from liquefied and non-liquefied sites were grouped and then analysed. Based on the observations reported by reconnaissance teams who visited both earthquake sites and the results of the liquefaction potential analyses using the filed-performance data, a chart to assess the potential for ground surface disruption at liquefaction-prone areas was produced. The analyses suggest that the procedure proposed by Ishihara is quite effective particularly for the occurrence of sand boils, while the bounds suggested in this method generally may not be valid for the prediction of liquefaction-induced ground surface disruption at sites susceptible to lateral spreading. The chart proposed in this study shows an improvement over the Ishihara's approach for predicting the liquefaction-induced ground surface damage. The microzonation maps comparing the liquefaction sites observed along the southern shore of Izmit Bay and in Yuanlin, and the surface damage and non-damage zones predicted from the proposed chart can identify accurately the liquefaction (sand boiling and lateral spreading) and no-liquefaction sites.     

Evaluation of forest fire on Madeira Island using Sentinel-2A MSI imagery

A forest fire started on August 8th, 2016 in several places on Madeira Island causing damage and casualties. As of August 10th the local media had reported the death of three people, over 200 people injured, over 950 habitants evacuated, and 50 houses damaged. This study presents the preliminary results of the assessment of several spectral indices to evaluate the burn severity of Madeira fires during August 2016. These spectral indices were calculated using the new European satellite Sentinel-2A launched in June 2015. The study confirmed the advantages of several spectral indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIreXn) using red-edge spectral bands to assess the post-fire conditions. Results showed high correlation between NDVI, GNDVI, NBR and NDVIre1n spectral indices and the analysis performed by Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMSR175), considered as the reference truth. Regarding the red-edge spectral indices, the NDVIre1n (using band B5, 705 nm) presented better results compared with B6 (740 nm) and B7 (783 nm) bands. These preliminary results allow us to assume that Sentinel-2 will be a valuable tool for post-fire monitoring. In the future, the two twin Sentinel-2 satellites will offer global coverage of the Madeira Archipelago every five days, therefore allowing the simultaneous study of the evolution of the burnt area and reforestation information with high spatial (up to 10 m) and temporal resolution (5 days).     

A liquefaction severity index suggested for engineering practice

One of the major tasks in earthquake geotechnical engineering is the preparation of liquefaction susceptibility maps. For this purpose, some indices associated with liquefaction susceptibility are used. However, the currently used indices have some limitations. In this study, a liquefaction severity index, which can be used in preparation of susceptibility maps, is suggested. The suggested severity index is applied to two sites selected from Taiwan (Yuanlin) and Turkey (Inegol) to examine performance. The application indicated that the suggested index shows a good performance for the selected sites, and can be considered as a tool for further studies.     

Mapping the liquefaction induced soil moisture changes using remote sensing technique: an attempt to map the earthquake induced liquefaction around Bhuj, Gujarat, India

The Bhuj earthquake (Mw = 7.9) occurred in the western part of India on 26th January 2001 and resulted in the loss of 20,000 lives and caused extensive damage to property. Soil liquefaction related ground failures such as lateral spreading caused significant damage to bridges, dams and other civil engineering structures in entire Kachchh peninsula. The Bhuj area is a part of large sedimentary basin filled with Jurassic, Tertiary and Quaternary deposits. This work pertains to mapping the areas that showed sudden increase in soil moisture after the seismic event, using remote sensing technique. Multi-spectral, spatial and temporal data sets from Indian Remote Sensing Satellite are used to derive the Liquefaction Sensitivity Index (LSeI). The basic concept behind LSeI is that the near infrared and shortwave infrared regions of electromagnetic spectrum are highly absorbed by soil moisture. Thus, the LSeI is herein used to identify the areas with increase in soil moisture after the seismic event. The LSeI map of Bhuj is then correlated with field-based observation on Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR) and Cyclic Resistance Ratio (CRR), depth to water table, soil density and Liquefaction Severity Index (LSI). The derived LSeI values are in agreement with liquefaction susceptible criteria and observed LSI (R ² = 0.97). The results of the study indicate that the LSeI after calibration with LSI can be used as a quick tool to map the liquefied areas. On the basis of LSeI, LSI, CRR, CSR and saturation, the unconsolidated sediments of the Bhuj area are classified into three susceptibility classes.     

Assessing burn severity and comparing soil water repellency,Hayman Fire,Colorado

An important element of evaluating a large wildfire is to assess its effects on the soil in order to predict the potential watershed response. After the 55 000 ha Hayman Fire on the Colorado Front Range, 24 soil and vegetation variables were measured to determine the key variables that could be used for a rapid field assessment of burn severity. The percentage of exposed mineral soil and litter cover proved to be the best predictors of burn severity in this environment. Two burn severity classifications, one from a statistical classification tree and the other a Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) burn severity map, were compared with measured ‘ground truth’ burn severity at 183 plots and were 56% and 69% accurate, respectively. This study also compared water repellency measurements made with the water drop penetration time (WDPT) test and a mini‐disk infiltrometer (MDI) test. At the soil surface, the moderate and highly burned sites had the strongest water repellency, yet were not significantly different from each other. Areas burned at moderate severity had 1·5 times more plots that were strongly water repellent at the surface than the areas burned at high severity. However, the high severity plots most likely had a deeper water repellent layer that was not detected with our surface tests. The WDPT and MDI values had an overall correlation of r = ?0·64(p < 0·0001) and appeared to be compatible methods for assessing soil water repellency in the field. Both tests represent point measurements of a soil characteristic that has large spatial variability; hence, results from both tests reflect that variability, accounting for much of the remaining variance. The MDI is easier to use, takes about 1 min to assess a strongly water repellent soil and provides two indicators of water repellency: the time to start of infiltration and a relative infiltration rate. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

拉萨5mm以上降水日数与旱涝的关系

运用Ｚ指数法对拉萨历年汛期（６￣９月）的旱涝等级进行划分;并分析了实际日降水量≥５ｍｍ日数、相当日降水量≥５ｍｍ日数与旱涝等级的关系。结果表明：Ｚ指数法所划分的旱涝等级与实际情况吻合;相当日降水量≥５ｍｍ日数不仅对汛期雨水的丰欠具有决定性的作用,而且与旱涝等级有着极好的相关性。