青海湖流域50年来(1956-2007年)河川径流量变化趋势——以布哈河和沙柳河为例

通过对青海湖流域布哈河和沙柳河50年来的河川径流量分析发现,布哈河和沙柳河年径流量50年来没有显著的变化趋势,这两条河流的河川径流量对青海湖水位下降所起的作用不明显;布哈河月平均流量的年际变化在1月、2月和3月有减少的趋势,沙柳河月平均流量的年际变化在1月、2月、4月和5月亦有减少的趋势;布哈河的径流量大于沙柳河的径流量,在55%-91%频率范围内,布哈河的径流量小于沙柳河的径流量,在其它频率范围内,布哈河的径流量显著大于沙柳河的径流量,在一年中,布哈河和沙柳河的月径流量具有显著的差异;布哈河来水丰沛期是20世纪60年代,贫乏期是90年代,70和80年代为平水期;沙柳河月径流量从20世纪60年代到90年代一直比较稳定,没有发生显著的变化.     

Riparian responses to reduced flood flows: comparing and contrasting narrowleaf and broadleaf cottonwoods

Abstract

To enable assessment of risks of water management to riparian ecosystems at a regional scale, we developed a quantile-regression model of abundance of broadleaf cottonwoods (Populus deltoides and P. fremontii) as a function of flood flow attenuation. To test whether this model was transferrable to narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia), we measured narrowleaf abundance along 39 river reaches in northwestern Colorado, USA. The model performed well for narrowleaf in all 32 reaches where reservoir storage was <75% of mean annual flow. Field data did not fit the model at four of seven reaches where reservoir storage was >90% of mean annual flow. In these four reaches, narrowleaf was abundant despite peak flow attenuation of 45–61%. Poor model performance in these four reaches may be explained in part by a pulse of narrowleaf cottonwood expansion as a response to channel narrowing and in part by differences between narrowleaf and broadleaf cottonwood response to floods and drought.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Wilding, T.K., Sanderson, J.S., Merritt, D.M., Rood, S.B., and Poff, N.L., 2014. Riparian responses to reduced flood flows: comparing and contrasting narrowleaf and broadleaf cottonwoods. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 605–617.     

丹东冬季降水相态判据研究

利用丹东1979-2012年10月至翌年4月逐日降水、天气现象、高空探空资料及NCEP0.5°×0.5°（部分2.5°×2.5°）再分析资料,对丹东地区冬季不同相态降水气候及大气层结特征进行了统计分析, 并对不同相态降水典型个例进行了分析。结果表明：丹东地区虽地处北方,但冬季降水相态多样。在秋冬、冬春过渡和严冬不同时段,大气不同层结不同相态降水气温阈值范围不同,建立了丹东冬季不同大气层结降水相态判据。大气不同层结前期特别是近地面层气温背景与不同相态降水的发生与转换关系密切,可为动态预报降水相态提供了参考。850 hPa及以下中低空温度条件对冬季降水相态形成至关重要,850 hPa的0℃线能较好区分雨和雪区大致范围,925 hPa的0 ℃线能较好区分雨夹雪和雪以及雨夹雪和雨大致范围。     

中国东部地区冬季气温与北极涛动的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、北极涛动（AO）指数序列及中国160个台站月温度资料,分析1951-2007年中国冬季气温与AO指数的变化特征及其相互关系。结果表明：1951-2007年AO与中国东部地区冬季气温基本呈正相关关系。中国东部地区冬季气温指数（IWT）与北极涛动指数（IAO）均逐渐增强,并有显著的年际和年代际变化,均存在准18 a的周期变化特征。从偏相关系数来看,在年际尺度上,西伯利亚高压对中国东部地区冬季气温的年际变化影响较大,而AO与冬季气温无显著相关关系;在年代际尺度上,AO对中国东部地区冬季气温的影响较显著,比西伯利亚高压影响大。东亚大槽偏弱时,中国冬季气温偏高,AO指数也偏高,反之则相反。在年际尺度上,东亚大槽对中国东部地区冬季气温的年际变化影响较大,而AO与冬季气温无显著相关关系;在年代际尺度上,AO和东亚大槽对中国冬季气温的变化影响均较显著。     

Sensitivity of hydrological variables to climate change in the Haihe River basin,China

Using the defined sensitivity index, the sensitivity of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change was investigated in four catchments in the Haihe River basin. Climate change contained three parts: annual precipitation and temperature change and the change of the percentage of precipitation in the flood season (P_f). With satisfying monthly streamflow simulation using the variable infiltration capacity model, the sensitivity was estimated by the change of simulated hydrological variables with hypothetical climatic scenarios and observed climatic data. The results indicated that (i) the sensitivity of streamflow would increase as precipitation or P_f increased but would decrease as temperature increased; (ii) the sensitivity of evapotranspiration and soil moisture would decrease as precipitation or temperature increased, but it to P_f varied in different catchments; and (iii) hydrological variables were more sensitive to precipitation, followed by P_f, and then temperature. The nonlinear response of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change could provide a reference for water resources planning and management under future climate change scenarios in the Haihe River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

更新世以来南海表层水温变化及其古气候意义

南海南部2Ma以来古温度记录显示该海域更新世以来海水表层温度的不断降低,并且以冰期降低为特征,间冰期温度变化不大。南海南北经向表层海水温差的大小,反映了东亚冬季风的强弱变化,2 Ma以来的温差变化说明东亚冬季风在中更新世之前的持续强化,中更新世之后不断减弱,而在晚第四纪时又再次转为增强,同时叠加在长期变化趋势之上的是轨道时间尺度上冰期增强间冰期减弱的循环波动。青藏高原构造作用可能对中更新世时期东亚冬季风强化产生重要影响,而更新世以来东亚冬季风变化的整体趋势及轨道尺度变化主要受全球冰量变化和低纬ENSO影响。     

晚第四纪中国北方沙地风沙沉积的Zr/Rb比值特征及意义

Zr/Rb比值因不受后期成壤作用影响,在黄土高原黄土堆积中可作为较好的冬季风气候替代性指标。与黄土沉积相比,中国北方沙地的气候变化研究相对较弱,能够敏感反映沙地气候变化的替代性指标仍处于探索阶段。本文选取东亚季风控制区的毛乌素沙地、浑善达克沙地和科尔沁沙地11个典型的风成沉积序列,对Zr/Rb比值及其意义进行了研究。通过全岩样品Zr、Rb元素含量、Zr/Rb比值与平均粒径和>63 μm的粗颗粒百分含量对比分析,发现在毛乌素沙地,Zr/Rb比值与粗颗粒百分含量和平均粒径成正相关关系,与黄土高原的变化趋势相似,可作为冬季风强度的替代性指标。而在浑善达克沙地和科尔沁沙地,虽然Rb含量在砂质古土壤层中随着细颗粒物质的增加而增大,与毛乌素沙地的变化相同;但是,Zr含量也表现出增加趋势,导致Zr/Rb比值变化趋势与毛乌素沙地相反。其主要原因可能是沙地所处的构造地貌单元不同,物源区存在差异。因此,Zr/Rb比值作为冬季风的替代性指标在不同沙地应用需要慎重分析。     

Streamflow regimes of the Yanhe River under climate and land use change,Loess Plateau,China

Soil and water conservation measures including terracing, afforestation, construction of sediment‐trapping dams, and the ‘Grain for Green Program’ have been extensively implemented in the Yanhe River watershed, of the Loess Plateau, China, over the last six decades, and have resulted in large‐scale land use and land cover changes. This study examined the trends and shifts in streamflow regime over the period of 1953–2010 and relates them to changes in land use and soil and water conservation and to the climatic factors of precipitation and air temperature. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Pettitt test were used to identify trends and shifts in streamflow and base flow. A method based on precipitation and potential evaporation was used to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and changes in non‐climate factors changes on annual streamflow. A significant decrease (p = 0.01) in annual streamflow was observed related to a significant change point in 1996, mostly because of significant decreases in streamflow (p = 0.01) in the July to September periods in subsequent years. The annual base flow showed no significant trend from 1953 to 2010 and no change point year, mostly because there were no significant seasonal trends, except for significant decreases (p = 0.05) in the July to September periods. There was no significant trend for precipitation over the studied time period, and no change point was detected. The air temperature showed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.01), and 1986 (p < 0.01) was the change point year. The climate variability, as measured by precipitation and temperature, and non‐climate factors including land use changes and soil and water conservation were estimated to have contributed almost equally to the reduction in annual streamflow. Soil and water conservation practices, including biological measures (e.g. revegetation, planting trees and grass) and engineering measures (such as fish‐scale pits, horizontal trenches, and sediment‐trapping dams) play an important role in reduction of the conversion of rainfall to run‐off. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elevation‐dependent responses of streamflow to climate warming

Warming will affect snowline elevation, potentially altering the timing and magnitude of streamflow from mountain landscapes. Presently, the assessment of potential elevation‐dependent responses is difficult because many gauged watersheds integrate drainage areas that are both snow and rain dominated. To predict the impact of snowline rise on streamflow, we mapped the current snowline (1980 m) for the Salmon River watershed (Idaho, USA) and projected its elevation after 3 °C warming (2440 m). This increase results in a 40% reduction in snow‐covered area during winter months. We expand this analysis by collecting streamflow records from a new, elevation‐stratified gauging network of watersheds contained within high (2250–3800 m), mid (1500–2250 m) and low (300–1500 m) elevations that isolate snow, mixed and rain‐dominated precipitation regimes. Results indicate that lags between percentiles of precipitation and streamflow are much shorter in low elevations than in mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds. Low elevation annual percentiles (Q₂₅ and Q₇₅) of streamflow occur 30–50 days earlier than in higher elevation watersheds. Extreme events in low elevations are dominated by low‐ and no‐flow events whereas mid‐ and high‐elevation extreme events are primarily large magnitude floods. Only mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds are strongly cross correlated with catchment‐wide flow of the Salmon River, suggesting that changes in contributions from low‐elevation catchments may be poorly represented using mainstem gauges. As snowline rises, mid‐elevation watersheds will likely exhibit behaviours currently observed only at lower elevations. Streamflow monitoring networks designed for operational decision making or change detection may require modification to capture elevation‐dependent responses of streamflow to warming. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.