中国东部地区冬季气温与北极涛动的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、北极涛动（AO）指数序列及中国160个台站月温度资料，分析1951-2007年中国冬季气温与AO指数的变化特征及其相互关系。结果表明：1951-2007年AO与中国东部地区冬季气温基本呈正相关关系。中国东部地区冬季气温指数（IWT）与北极涛动指数（IAO）均逐渐增强，并有显著的年际和年代际变化，均存在准18 a的周期变化特征。从偏相关系数来看，在年际尺度上，西伯利亚高压对中国东部地区冬季气温的年际变化影响较大，而AO与冬季气温无显著相关关系；在年代际尺度上，AO对中国东部地区冬季气温的影响较显著，比西伯利亚高压影响大。东亚大槽偏弱时，中国冬季气温偏高，AO指数也偏高，反之则相反。在年际尺度上，东亚大槽对中国东部地区冬季气温的年际变化影响较大，而AO与冬季气温无显著相关关系；在年代际尺度上，AO和东亚大槽对中国冬季气温的变化影响均较显著。

Relationship between winter air temperature in Eastern China and Arctic Oscillation

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,Arctic Oscillation （AO）index series and monthly temperature at 160 weather stations in China,variation characteristics of winter air temperature and AO index series as well as both relationships from 195 1 to 2007 were analyzed.The results show that there is a positive correlation relation-ship between winter air temperature and AO indexes in the Eastern China.Winter air temperature index and Arctic Oscillation index both increase gradually.Their annual and inter-decadal variations are significant and both have a 1 8 years cycle.According to the partial correlation coefficient,effects of the Siberia high on winter air temperature in the Eastern China are significant on annual scale,while the AO index has not a significant correlation with win-ter air temperature;effects of AO on winter air temperature are more significant than that of the Siberia high on in-terdecadal scale.Winter air temperature and AO index in the Eastern China are high when the East Asian trough is weak,and vice versa.On inter-annual scale,the East Asian though has significant effect on inter-annual variations of winter air temperature of Eastern China,while the correlation between AO and winter air temperature is not sig-nificant;on interdecadal scale,effects of AO index and the East Asian though on winter air temperature changes in the Eastern China are significant.