澜沧—耿马地震孕育过程中应力场时空变化与预测检验

本文利用地震波资料,对1988年11月6日澜沧—耿马大震孕育过程中,震区及周围地区应力场(方向和强度)时空调整变动进行了分析研究。资料表明,在大震孕育发展的不同阶段,震区及周围应力场调整变动有着不同的表现特征。本文还对依据应力场时空调整变动在大震前作出的中期预测与震后检验进行了分析讨论。     

济阳坳陷第三系地层中自生磷灰石的裂变径迹年龄测定

经电镜分析发现,胜利油田主要产油(气)的第三系沉积岩中存在少量自生磷灰石,其特征为:具有自形或半自形;颗粒周围无风化晕圈;沿大的裂隙也无风化晕带。作者采用裂变径迹法对该自生磷灰石作了单颗粒年龄测定。实践证明,裂变径迹法测定年轻沉积地层的年龄是可行的。     

Low-Pressure Metamorphism of Granulite Facies in an Early Proterozoic Orogenic Event in Central Inner Mongolia

According to the kinds of feldspar and rock associations in the Ai-rich gneisses, the low-pressure metamorphic crust of the Early Proterozoic granulite facies in central Inner Mongolia can be divided into southern and northern belts which are composed of six rock associations. They represent the relevant rock sequences of the layered metamorphic rock series formed under specific metamorphic temperature and pressure conditions as well as tectonic environments. Mineral inclusions and reaction texture have recorded that the medium-temperature high-pressure mineral assemblages are replaced by the high-temperature low-pressure mineral assemblages, thus, giving rise to: garnet+quartz→ hypersthene+plagioclase; kyanite→sillimanite and garnet+kyanite/sillimanite+quartz→cordierite. The deformation fabrics of the rocks, the change of mineral assemblages and the PTt path of metamorphism indicate that the contempranceous high-temperature normal-slip ductile shearing is the main cause of the formation of the low-pressure metamorphic crust of granulite facies. In the orogenic event, the co-action of thrusting and extension resulted in the change of a medium-temperature high-pressure metamorphic environment into the high-temperature low-pressure metamorphic conditions.     

青海省的古地震研究

本文根据近几年来在青海境内发掘的古地震资料,阐述了开展古地震研究工作的目的、意义和现状。提出了辨认古地震期次、判别古地震强度和确定震中位置的方法与标志。     

Low-Pressure Metamorphism of Granulite Facies in an Early Proterozoic Orogenic Event in Central Inner Mongolia1

Abstract According to the kinds of feldspar and rock associations in the Al-rich gneisses, the low-pressure metamorphic crust of the Early Proterozoic granulite facies in central Inner Mongolia can be divided into southern and northern belts which are composed of six rock associations. They represent the relevant rock sequences of the layered metamorphic rock series formed under specific metamorphic temperature and pressure conditions as well as tectonic environments. Mineral inclusions and reaction texture have recorded that the medium-temperature high-pressure mineral assemblages are replaced by the high-temperature low-pressure mineral assemblages, thus, giving rise to: garnet+quartz? hypersthene+plagioclase; kyanite? sillimanite and garnet+ kyanite / sillimanite+quartz? cordierite. The deformation fabrics of the rocks, the change of mineral assemblages and the PTt path of metamorphism indicate that the contempranceous high-temperature normal-slip ductile shearing is the main cause of the formation of the low-pressure metamorphic crust of granulite facies. In the orogenic event, the co-action of thrusting and extension resulted in the change of a medium-temperature high-pressure metamorphic environment into the high-temperature low-pressure metamorphic conditions.     

大陆地幔交代作用:地台活化的先驱事件?

地幔交代作用已得到幔源岩石地球化学研究的证实,并已广泛地用于解释上地幔的不均一性、地幔地球化学演化和幔源碱性岩浆的成因问题。本文通过分析国内外某些典型地洼区(中国滇西、华北;西德莱茵地堑;东非裂谷;澳大利亚东部;法国中央地块)幔源岩石的微量元素和Sr、Nd、Pb同位素资料,发现这些地洼区在地台阶段向地洼阶段转化过程中,上地幔化学结构由亏损状态向富集状态转化。上地幔的化学结构的这种转化主要由地幔交代作用所造成。同位素体系计时结果表明地幔交代作用是导致地台活化的先驱事件。地幔交代作用不仅改变了上地幔的化学结构,而且导致交代地幔热流升高、密度减小、体积膨大、固相线下降。所有这些效应加剧了地幔的蠕动和向地壳的热量释放,并产生地台的活化。     

回归诊断在事件概率回归预报中的应用

针对事件概率回归模型的特点，用残差分析和统计量诊断的方法归纳了回归线差的非称分布现象，揭示了这种现象是由高杠杆占所引起，探讨了概率回归模型的残差不合理性的统计天气预报意义，从而提出适用于概率预报问题的事件概率回归改进模型。分析指出。事件概率回归模型的不合量性并不是个另例了特珠性所造成是由该模型的数学特点所决定，概率回归改进模型要优于普通的概率的回归模型型。     

华北克拉通太古宙上壳岩早前寒武纪构造变形与变质作用关系——以北京密云沙厂地区为例

沙厂铁矿区上壳岩在太古宙时期经历了麻粒岩相、角闪岩相和绿片岩相的多相变质作用,这种多相变质作用的发生及其分布特点是与本区台怀运动旋回的两幕构造变形的形成有密切关系。本文根据不同变质相的矿物组合与不同变形幕构造片理的相互关系的研究得出角闪岩相退变是与台怀变形序列的第一幕变形相对应,而绿片岩相退变是与第二幕变形有联系的结论。退变质作用的不均匀性,即其强弱的表现与不同变形幕的构造变形有直接关系。     

天气预报评分方法评述

本文按定性预报、百分率预报和形态预报3类预报形式，分别概述了常用的验证评分方法。提出了预报评分方法应遵循的7条准则，并以此为依据，针对强对流天气等小概率事件的预报，讨论了各种评分方法的适用性。最后，对各类预报形式的验证评分，提出了最佳的方案。     

Interannual Thermocline Signals and E1 Nino-La Nina Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Ni?na) to a warm water state (El Ni?no) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980–2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Ni?no (or La Ni?na) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Ni?no and La Ni?na events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Ni?no event to a La Ni?na event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Ni?no or La Ni?na event at least one year in advance.