“地震预警”法律概念的构成及延展

“地震预警”法律概念是讨论和规范地震预警相关行为的基础,也是地震预警立法首先要明确的问题。目前,国家层面尚未制定专门的地震预警法律法规,地方已经颁布的管理办法中对“地震预警”法律概念的规定也不完全一致。随着地震预警立法进程的不断推进,“地震预警”法律概念的确定和统一愈发重要和迫切。“地震预警”法律概念应涵括其技术属性和社会属性,秉持完整规范、避免歧义的原则,将时间、空间、机理和影响等要素排列组合而成。为深入理解这一概念,本文还讨论了发布主体、预警客体、技术服务、法律责任等地震预警法律规范的基本内容。     

地震前兆含义,科学问题与研究途径的研讨

地震前兆的研究已经取得了很大的进展,地震前兆的复杂性引起了广泛的关注,对地震预报、有关科学问题和探索途径的研究现状及其前景有各种评价。文章认为由于一些科学问题没有解决,尽管对中缅边境１９９５年７月连７．３级地震作出了成功预报,经验性预报有一定的局限性,文中讨论了广义地震前兆和狭义地震前兆,广义地震前兆包含二类前兆：场兆和源兆;而狭义前兆仅指后者。大陆震例前兆的系统研究证实了广义地震前兆的存在,然而     

Earthquake hazard of the northern parts of the Bohemian Massif and Western Carpathians

The new procedure of earthquake hazard evaluation developed by Kijko and Sellevoll is tested and applied for the border region of Czechoslovakia and Poland. The new method differs from the conventional approach. It incorporates the uncertainty of earthquake magnitudes, and accepts mixed data containing only large historical events and recent, complete catalogues. Seismic hazard has been calculated for nine regions determined in the border area. In the investigated area, data of historical catalogues are uncertain or, in many cases, the epicentral intensities are unknown. Thus, a number of assumptions have to be adopted in data preparation of catalogues since the year 1200. The calculated values of parameters b in the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-intensity relation as well as the return periods, seem to be reasonable and are generally confirmed by the results obtained from catalogues for the last 80–130 years.     

1786年康定地震形变特征的初步研究

本文对鲜水河断裂带南东段,康定断裂地震的形变带进行了分析。认为,地震形变带主要由发育于地形斜坡上的线性坡中槽或垄岗组成。形变带具分段特点,单条长850—1500米,呈右阶“斜列式”展布,中段(极震区)一带为现状型。其中的破裂面具正断兼扭动特点。空间特征上,坡中槽一侧的交替上升变化是依次、轮换出现的,它是地震断层运动屈曲作用(Fault buckling)导致地表变形的反映。这种形变现象与该带北西段(炉霍段)走滑型地震的形变带相比有明显的差异,也表明鲜水河断裂带北西、南东两段的地震破裂方式是不尽相同的,它为同一走滑带不同地段运动特征的差异提供了证据。     

FS方法及其在综合多项震兆中的应用

本文提出了一种模式识别方法--FS方法.该方法的特征取为某些论域上的模糊子集.先以每三个原始特征组成子分类器的特征集,“训练”这些分类器,然后对子分类器进行筛选,最后用筛选出的子分类器的“软”分类结果的加权平均作为判别函数,形成总的分类决策.将FS方法应用于综合多项震兆,并进行了一系列控制试验,还与地震学中几种常用的方法进行了对比试验.结果表明,FS方法是稳定和有效的.     

Quaternary tectonic faulting in the Eastern United States

Paleoseismological study of geologic features thought to result from Quaternary tectonic faulting can characterize the frequencies and sizes of large prehistoric and historical earthquakes, thereby improving the accuracy and precision of seismic-hazard assessments. Greater accuracy and precision can reduce the likelihood of both underprotection and unnecessary design and construction costs. Published studies proposed Quaternary tectonic faulting at 31 faults, folds, seismic zones, and fields of earthquake-induced liquefaction phenomena in the Appalachian Mountains and Coastal Plain. Of the 31 features, seven are of known origin. Four of the seven have nontectonic origins and the other three features are liquefaction fields caused by moderate to large historical and Holocene earthquakes in coastal South Carolina, including Charleston; the Central Virginia Seismic Zone; and the Newbury, Massachusetts, area. However, the causal faults of the three liquefaction fields remain unclear. Charleston has the highest hazard because of large Holocene earthquakes in that area, but the hazard is highly uncertain because the earthquakes are uncertainly located.Of the 31 features, the remaining 24 are of uncertain origin. They require additional work before they can be clearly attributed either to Quaternary tectonic faulting or to nontectonic causes. Of these 24, 14 features, most of them faults, have little or no published geologic evidence of Quaternary tectonic faulting that could indicate the likely occurrence of earthquakes larger than those observed historically. Three more features of the 24 were suggested to have had Quaternary tectonic faulting, but paleoseismological and other studies of them found no evidence of large prehistoric earthquakes. The final seven features of uncertain origin require further examination because all seven are in or near urban areas. They are the Moodus Seismic Zone (Hartford, Connecticut), Dobbs Ferry fault zone and Mosholu fault (New York City), Lancaster Seismic Zone and the epicenter of the shallow Cacoosing Valley earthquake (Lancaster and Reading, Pennsylvania), Kingston fault (central New Jersey between New York and Philadelphia), and Everona fault-Mountain Run fault zone (Washington, D.C., and Arlington and Alexandria, Virginia).     

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

The seismic hazard assessment of the Dead Sea rift, Jordan

The Dead Sea fault system and its branching faults represent one of the most tectonically active regions in the Middle East. The aim of this study is to highlight the degree of hazards related to the earthquake activities associated with the Dead Sea rift, in terms of speculating the possible future earthquakes. The present investigation mainly is based on available data and vertical crustal modeling of Jordan and the Dead Sea model for the Dead Sea basin with particular emphasis of the recent earthquake activities, which occurred on December 31st, 2003 (Mc = 3.7), February 11th, 2004 (strongest Mc = 4.9 R), and March 15th, 2004 (Mc = 4). The present research examines the location of the strong events and correlates them with the various tectonic elements in the area. The source mechanism of the main shock and the aftershock events is also examined. The analyses were based on the available short period seismogram data, which was recorded at the Natural Resources Authority of Jordan, Seismological Observatory. The seismic energy appears to have migrated from the south to the north during the period from December 31st up to March 12th, where the released seismic energy showed a migration character to the southern block of the eastern side of the Dead Sea, which led the seismic event to occur on March 15th.     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.