Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.     

基于R树的分布式并行空间索引机制研究

为提高分布式并行计算环境下海量空间数据管理与并行化处理的效率,基于并行空间索引机制的研究,设计一种多层并行R树空间索引结构。该索引结构以高效率的并行空间数据划分策略为基础,以经典的并行计算方法论为依据,使其结构设计在保证能够获得较好的负载平衡性能的前提下,更适合于海量空间数据的并行化处理。以空间范围查询并行处理的系统响应时间为性能评估指标,通过实验证明并行空间索引结构具有设计合理、性能高效的特点。     

计算模式驱动下GIS体系结构的发展分析

计算模式是信息时代特有的解决问题的方法范式,它综合反映了信息科学的理论、软件与硬件等因素在解决实际问题中相互作用的形式,是与相应阶段主流信息技术相对应的信息系统体系结构的规律模式或构筑范式。该文分析了计算模式驱动下GIS的体系结构从单机模式、局域网模式、广域网模式(WebGIS)到网格模式(GridGIS)的发展过程,指出单机、局域网和广域网模式本质上都具有集中封闭的性质,不同程度地存在着理论、技术、物理、功能和逻辑思维等五大边缘,是典型的空间信息孤岛。网格计算模式是一种彻底的分布式计算模式,GIS的网格模式直接打破了传统模式的技术、物理、功能和逻辑思维限制,并面向理论边缘的解决,具有开放、均质、扁平的结构性质,升格为空间信息网格基础设施。     

银武高速公路同心至固原段边坡面蚀试验分析

为研究高速公路边坡面蚀,选择银武高速公路同心至固原段固原立交2.5 km范围作为研究区段,根据不同公路边坡类型和防治措施设置6个观测小区,采用插钎法测定坡面的面蚀量,同时由虹吸式自记雨量计记录降雨量。分别测定和计算了降雨量、降雨历时、平均降雨强度、前期降雨量4个因子。分析结果表明,降雨对坡面面蚀的制约关系十分明显。影响面蚀量的主要降雨因子是降雨量和平均降雨强度,面蚀量与降雨量和平均降雨强度呈现极显著和显著的正相关关系,面蚀量与降雨因子中的前期降雨量呈现一定的负相关关系。采用强迫引入法,建立了面蚀量与降雨因子主成分的回归方程。     

Bootstrapped discrete scale invariance analysis of geomagnetic dipole intensity

The technique of bootstrapped discrete scale invariance allows multiple time-series of different observables to be normalized in terms of observed and predicted characteristic timescales. A case study is presented using the SINT2000 time-series of virtual axial dipole moment, which spans the past 2 Myr. It is shown that this sequence not only bears a clear signature of a preferred timescale of about 55.6 Ka, but additionally predicts similar features (of shorter and longer duration) that are actually observed on the timescales of historical secular variation and dipole reversals, respectively. In turn, the latter two empirical sources both predict the characteristic timescale found in the dipole intensity sequence. These communal scaling characteristics suggest that a single underlying process could be driving dynamo fluctuations across all three observed timescales, from years to millions of years.     

Modelling of mantle postglacial relaxation in axisymmetric geometry with a composite rheology and a glacial load interpolated by adjusted spherical harmonics analysis

Although studies on glacial isostatic adjustment usually assume a purely linear rheology, we have previously shown that mantle relaxation after the melting of Laurentide ice sheet is better described by a composite rheology including a non-linear term. This modelling is, however, based on axially symmetric geometry and glacial forcing derived from ICE-3G and suffers from a certain amount of arbitrariness in the definition of the ice load. In this work we apply adjusted spherical harmonics analysis to interpolate the ice thicknesses of ICE-3G and ICE-1 glaciological models. This filters out the non-axisymmetric components of the ice load by considering only the zonal terms in the spherical harmonics expansion. The resulting load function is used in finite-element simulation of postglacial rebound to compare composite versus purely linear rheology. Our results confirm that composite rheology can explain relative sea level (RSL) data in North America significantly better than a purely linear rheology. The performance of composite rheology suggests that in future investigations, it may be better to use this more physically realistic creep law for modelling mantle deformation induced by glacial forcing.     

广东沿海强东北季风的气候统计特征

通过对1988－1997年冷空气造成的广东沿海强东北季风过程的气候统计分析，发现广东的强东北季风有明显的月分布规律，而年际变化有逐渐减少的趋势；强东北季风与地面因子相关程度较高，而与850hPa要素相关性较低；同时发现地面冷高压中心位置聚合度较高，但不同月份、不同时次，其中心位置有明显差异。     

分区统计地图上符号的视觉搜寻和认知工效研究

根据某地区的分区统计数据和有关图集，总结设计出4种方案的分区统计地图，在自行编制的认知测试软件上进行了目标搜寻测试，结果表明，在分区统计地图上搜寻目标时，视觉系统运用了平行加工策略和序列加工策略，4个方案的目标搜寻平均反应时间和正确率受到这两种策略的影响。