新疆区域大气透明度研究

在分析新疆区域大气透明度过程中,为克服福布斯（FORBERS）效应,即大气质量M对太阳光谱成分变化产生的干扰,将复合透明度系数Pm订正到相对大气质量M=2（H=90°）时所计算出来的积分透明度P2来进行描述。利用乌鲁木齐、喀什40多年长序列太阳辐射资料以及塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地及周边地区相关的辐射和气象资料,分析新疆区域大气透明度的年际、月际和日变化以及影响大气透明度的主要气象因子。结果表明,乌鲁木齐、喀什的大气透明度在40多年中,其年际变化特征主要表现为P2呈逐步下降的趋势,这种下降在20世纪90年代至今的近20 a里有加速的趋势;从季节角度分析,P2的这种逐年代下降的趋势在冬季（1月）和春季（4月）更为显著,而在夏季（7月）和秋季（10月）,这种下降则较为温和,无论乌鲁木齐还是喀什,以十年段平均值的振幅来看,乌鲁木齐P2在1月和4月均在0.2以上,而7月和10月则均在0.2以下,表现的更为明显,喀什亦有类似特征;新疆大气透明度在一年中的变化,以冬季为最佳,秋季次之,春季最差,近年来,乌鲁木齐地区冬季大气透明度急剧下降,其最高值已出现在秋季,喀什也呈现出同样现象,这表明了在城市化情况下,以人类活动影响因素为主所导致的大气污染,使空气的透明状况越来越差;新疆大气透明度的日变化表现为早晚高、中午低的特点,其逐日变化则与天气过程相关联;新疆的下垫面多为沙漠、戈壁,大气中的尘埃含量和水汽压变化是新疆大气透明度的重要影响因子,尘埃含量的变化是塔里木盆地大气透明度变化的最重要影响因子,其与大气透明度的变化呈反相关,而水汽压的变化亦与大气透明度变化呈反相关关系。     

Patterns of upper layer circulation variability in the South China Sea from satellite altimetry using the self-organizing map

Patterns of the South China Sea (SCS) circulation variability are extracted from merged satellite altimetry data from October 1992 through August 2004 by using the self-organizing map (SOM). The annual cycle, seasonal and inter-annual variations of the SCS surface circulation are identified through the evolution of the characteristic circulation patterns. The annual cycle of the SCS gener- al circulation patterns is described as a change between two opposite basin-scale SW-NE oriented gyres embedded with eddies: low sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) (cyclonic) in winter and high SSHA (anticyclonic) in summer half year. The transition starts from July--August (January--February) with a high (low) SSHA tongue east of Vietnam around 12°～14° N, which de- velopa into a big anticyclonic (cyclonic) gyre while moving eastward to the deep basin. During the transitions, a dipole structure, cyclonic (anticyclonic) in the north and anticyclonic (cyclonic) in the south, may be formed southeast off Vietnam with a strong zonal jet around 10°～12° N. The seasonal variation is modulated by the interannual variations. Besides the strong 1997/1998 e- vent in response to the peak Pacific El Nino in 1997, the overall SCS sea level is found to have a significant rise during 1999～ 2001, however, in summer 2004 the overall SCS sea level is lower and the basin-wide anticyclonic gyre becomes weaker than the other years.     

Long-term variability of shelf water intrusion and its influence on hydrographic and biogeochemical properties of the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

The variability of the pathway of the Kuroshio is known to control that of the intensity of upwelling of the cold and nutrient-rich deep shelf water at the shelf-break point. This study has investigated the influences of the long-term variability of the hydrographical and biogeochemical conditions at the shelf-break point on those in the inner Seto Inland Sea. Results from observations conducted since 1972 by prefectural fisheries observatories showed a temporary decrease of temperature in the lower layer of the entrance of Kii Channel in summertime in the specific years when the Kuroshio pathway favored deep shelf water intrusion. A corresponding change in temperature was also found in the inner shelf sea, such as western Osaka Bay and Harima-Nada. The model developed in this study covers a 30-year period and well reproduces the temporal change in temperature. It also shows sufficient reproducibility in both seasonal behavior of hydrographical and biogeochemical properties and the inter-annual variability of hydrographical properties throughout the eastern Seto Inland Sea. It was found that the inter-annual variations of annual total flux through the section at the entrance to Kii Channel affect the inter-annual variation of the observed concentration of Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN) in Harima Nada, but the effect was smaller than those of river input and other parameters.     

北白令海夏季冷水团的分布及其年际变化研究

利用1982-2008年间的高分辨率CTD数据,对夏季位于北白令海陆架底层的冷水团性质及其多年变化进行了研究.结果表明,依据该区域水体在温盐性质上的差异可以分为4类:陆架冷水团(BSW_C),白令海陆坡流水(BSCW),混合变性水(MW),陆架表层暖水(BSW_S).以-1℃,2℃和4℃温度等值线指示水团边界,清楚地将...     

中国沿海近31年冬季海平面变化特征

利用29个海洋观测站的31年（1980－2010年）水文气象观测资料,分析了中国沿海近31年冬季海平面的时空分布特征与长期变化趋势。结果表明：①中国沿海冬季海平面近31年呈现明显的上升趋势,平均上升速率为3.1 mm/a,高于全年的上升速率,渤海、黄海、东海和南海沿海冬季海平面变化呈现明显的区域特征;②中国沿海冬季海平面存在显著的年际和年代际变化,其主要显著变化周期有准2 a,4～7 a,9 a左右及18.6 a。由于受西太平洋暖池和黑潮与我国近海之间的水体交换影响,东中国海4～7 a的周期明显,其振幅最高,并且其周期性震荡的高位时期与赤道西太平洋暖池区的厄尔尼诺发生期间相吻合;③以浙江坎门（121°17′E , 28°05′N）为界,中国沿海冬季海平面还呈现出南北变化反相的跷跷板特征,该现象反映了中国沿海冬季海平面的气候性特征。受季风、海流、气压以及降水等因素的影响,冬季海平面的变化区域特征明显;④近31年, 中国沿海冬季气温、海温与海平面均呈显著上升趋势,上升幅度分别为1.8 ℃、1.4 ℃和135 mm,高于全年上升幅度。     

Population dynamics of four dominant copepods in Prydz Bay, Antarctica, during austral summer from 1999 to 2006

Population dynamics of four dominant Antarctic copepods, Calanoides acutus, Calanus propinquus, Metridia gerlachei and Rhincalanus gigas were studied based on zooplankton samples collected in the Prydz Bay during austral summer from 1999 to 2006. We found that C. acutus was the most abundant species among these four copepods, followed by C. propinquus, M. gerlachei and R. gigas. R. gigas occurred mainly in the warmer oceanic regions and showed distribution patterns discrete from the other three species, whose distribution in the whole survey area overlapped. By December 15th (about one month before our sampling) of the years 1999, 2003 and 2006, sea ice retreated earlier and polynyas existed in the neritic region one month before sampling. These periods were characterized by numerical dominance of C. acutus, C. propinquus and M. gerlachei, elevated proportions of Copepodite I and Copepodite II stages especially in the neritic region. While for the years 2000, 2002, and 2005, the ice edge located more northerly and polynyas did not exist in the neritic region, the copepods abundance was lower, indicating poor recruitment. Population structure of R. gigas was mainly composed of advanced stages Copepodite V and female during all cruises. Log10 (x+1) transformed densities of C. acutus, C. propinquus and M. gerlachei showed positive correlation with temperature and chlorophyll a concentration, while mean population stages of these copopods were negatively correlated with these environmental variables. Younger copepodite stages of C. acutus, C. propinquus and M. gerlachei appeared more often in neritic regions. We confirmed that the polynyas had a great contribution to phytoplankton blooms, which promote copepods reproduction and recruitment success. The study suggested that population dynamics of the four copepods have good correspondence with sea ice and polynya variations during all cruises of the Prydz Bay.     

Mechanisms of variability and predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

A conceptual model is proposed to explain the observed aperiodicity in the short term climate fluctuations of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system. This is based on the evidence presented here that the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system sustains a low frequency inter-annual mode and a host of higher frequency intra-seasonal unstable modes. At long wavelengths, the low frequency mode is dominant while at short wavelengths, the high frequency modes are dominant resulting in the co-existence of a long wave low frequency mode with some short wave intra-seasonal modes in the tropical coupled system. It is argued that due to its long wavelength, the low frequency mode would behave like a linear oscillator while the higher frequency short wave modes would be nonlinear. The conceptual model envisages that an interaction between the low frequency linear oscillator and the high frequency nonlinear oscillations results in the observed aperiodicity of the tropical coupled system. This is illustrated by representing the higher frequency intra-seasonal oscillations by a nonlinear low order model which is then coupled to a linear oscillator with a periodicity of four years. The physical mechanism resulting in the aperiodicity in the low frequency oscillations and implications of these results on the predictability of the coupled system are discussed.     

南海暖池的季节和年际变化及其与南海季风爆发的关系

用ＬＥＶＩＴＵＳ和ＮＣＥＰ／ＮＣＡＲ ＯＩＳＳＴ资料，分析了南海暖池的季节和变化特征及其与西太平洋暖池和印度洋暖池的关系，讨论了南海暖池强度指数的年际变化与南海季风爆发时间的联系，结果指出，南海暖池有明显的季节变化牲，１２～２月隆冬季节最弱，３～４月迅速发展北上，６～９月达其盛期，整个南海均为高于２８℃的暖水，１０～１１月迅速减弱南退：在南海暖池盛期，整个南海均为高于２８℃的暖水最大厚度达５５ｍ，     

冬季北极涛动与极涡的变化分析

利用NCEP／NCAR资料计算出冬季极涡面积（PVA）指数和极涡强度（PVI）指数，对冬季北极涛动（AO）和北半球500hPa极涡指数进行周期分析，讨论了冬季AO与极涡的年际、年代际变化。结果表明：冬季AO指数与PVA指数呈反相关关系，与PVI指数呈正相关关系，且AO指数呈上升趋势，PVA指数呈下降趋势。冬季AO指数、PVA指数以及PVI指数均具有多重周期。强（弱）AO指数年，极地500hPa高度场降低（升高），PVI指数偏大（偏小），PVA指数偏小（偏大）。500hPa高度场上亚洲大槽、北美大槽均减弱（加强）。AO可激发出类似EU遥相关型的异常，从而影响到东亚地区的气候。冬季AO指数在1982年发生突变，且突变后北太平洋地区的正中心位置更靠东，强度更大。此外，AO突变前后极涡变化不是很显著。     

东亚季风研究的进展

中国气象科学研究院曾长期组织和从事东亚季风及其对中国天气和旱涝影响的研究。该文对中国气象科学研究院在东亚季风研究方面取得成果进行综述, 并回顾了20世纪50年代以来国内有关季风的研究活动, 也回顾了影响我国天气气候、东亚季风环流系统的提出及其后续的有关东亚和印度季风系统的相互作用, 引发中国大陆暴雨生成的水汽输送, 表达中国大陆季风活动的季风指数设计等研究结果。综述了南海夏季风爆发、梅雨开始、中国雨季开始及传播等有关研究成果; 东亚季风系统中副热带地区低频振荡纬向和经向传播特征及与赤道地区不同之处, 东亚低频振荡对El Ni?o形成及夏季东亚热带和副热带季风爆发的可能影响, 东亚热带和副热带季风低频振荡对中国天气气候的影响等有关成果; 亚洲地区大气热源的计算及其分布, 青藏高原夏季热源对东亚夏季风及降水的可能影响, 青藏高原冬季冷源对El Ni?o生成的可能影响等有关成果; 东亚季风及降水的年际变化特征, 准4年年际振荡的分析及与ENSO形成间的相互作用, 极地对东亚夏季降水的影响及东亚季风年代际变化特征等成果。综述东亚季风系统形成的可能机制, 特别是亚洲大陆—西太平洋海陆热力差异及非洲、印度半岛、中南半岛及澳大利亚陆地与周围海洋对冬夏季风形成、印度和东亚季风系统形成、南海夏季风形成作用的结果。