基于STIRPAT模型的江苏省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测

定量分析碳排放的影响因素,对降低区域碳排放具有重要的指导意义。利用STIRPAT模型,定量分析江苏省能源消费碳排放量与人口、富裕度（以人均GDP表示）、技术进步（以能源强度表示）和城镇化水平之间的关系,通过岭回归拟合后发现,人口数量、人均GDP、能源强度、城市化水平每变化1%,江苏省能源消费碳排放量将分别发生3.467%、(0.242+0.024 lnA)%、0.313%和0.151%的变化。在以上研究的基础上,设置8种不同的发展情景,分析了江苏省未来能源消费碳排放量的发展趋势。结果表明,当人口、经济保持低速增长,并保持高技术增长率时,有利于控制江苏省的能源消费碳排放量,2020年江苏省的能源消费碳排放量预测值为202.81 MtC。     

Contribution to the Global Warming Mitigation of Marshlands Conversion to Croplands in the Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China

Based on the estimation of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and carbon sequestration of the total conversion of marshlands (TMC), marshlands conversion to paddy fields (MCPFs) and marshlands conversion to uplands (MCULs), this study revealed the contribution to the global warming mitigation (CGWM) of paddy fields versus uplands converted from marshlands in the Sanjiang Plain (excluding the Muling‐Xingkai Plain on south of Wanda Mountain), Heilongjiang Province, northeast China. The results showed that the total area of MCPFs and MCULs was 504.23 × 10³ ha between 1982 and 2005. The CGWM per unit area was 45.53 t CO₂eq/ha for MCPFs and that was 23.95 t CO₂eq/ha for MCULs, with an obvious 47.40% reduction. The MCPFs and MCULs ecosystems acted as the carbon sink all of the year. As far as CGWM per unit area is concerned, MCPFs mitigated the greenhouse effect which was greater than MCULs. And it was effective that the implementation of the uplands transformed into paddy fields in Northeast China with regard to marshlands protection and croplands (including paddy fields and uplands) reclamation.     

The Effects of Environmental Conditions on Concentration and Emission of Ammonia in Chicken Farms during Summer Season

This paper presents a field study conducted in northwest Turkey and characterizes the NH₃ concentration and emission measured in summer season from three chicken farms. The influence of environmental conditions on NH₃ concentration and emission was also investigated in this study. Ammonia concentration, temperature, relative humidity and airflow rate were continuously recorded for four sequential days. The environmental conditions were measured using a multifunction temperature and humidity‐meter with a hot wire probe. Portable multiple gas detectors with electro‐chemical sensors were used to measure NH₃ concentration. The NH₃ emission rates for houses were calculated by multiplying simultaneously measured NH₃ concentrations and air flow rates. The average daily mean (ADM) house concentrations of house 1 (H1), house 2 (H2), and house 3 (H3) were measured as 4.43, 3.71, and 6.20 ppm, respectively. NH₃ concentration was inversely proportional to temperature (r = ?0.279), relative humidity (r = ?0.063) and airflow rate (r = ?0.554) for all monitored houses. The ADM house NH₃ emission was 135 g/(h house) for H1, 255 g/(h house) for H2, and 117 g/(h house) for H3. The combined average emission rate in this study (0.26 g/(d bird)) was lower than the emission rate measured in chicken farms in the USA. However, our results were comparable to rates calculated in European studies because house design, ventilation system and bird diet applied in Turkish chicken farms are very similar to those employed in European countries. The NH₃ emissions were significantly correlated to NH₃ concentrations (r = 0.45, p ≤ 0.001) and airflow rates (r = 0.97, p ≤ 0.001). A clear diurnal pattern was obtained for NH₃ concentrations rather than NH₃ emissions at the end of the study.     

The influence of political ideology on greenhouse gas emissions

This research tests the casual link from political ideology to national greenhouse gas emissions by utilizing multinational panel data covering 98 countries during the period 1990–2016. Overall, the baseline results and robustness tests show a political divide on national greenhouse gas emissions, whereby compared to right-wing governments, left-wing governments are more likely to exhibit less carbon dioxide emissions. We further explore this topic from the perspectives of energy efficiency and education. Three-stage OLS regressions suggest that leftist parties increase energy efficiency and spend more on secondary education, which lead to less greenhouse gas emissions. We also introduce the interaction between political ideology and economic performance as well as globalization to test the moderating effects of economic performance and globalization. The study further looks into the interaction effects of political ideology and democracies on greenhouse gas emissions by dividing the whole sample into two sub-samples. The results indicate that the ideology effect on greenhouse gas emissions varies among countries with different economic performances or different degrees of political globalization, as well as between democracies and non-democracies.     

欧盟减排《责任分担条例》修正案分析与启示

欧盟自1997年起就如何通过市场和行政手段“双轮驱动”控制碳排放总量进行不断探索,并逐步建立了较为成熟的碳排放交易体系及减排责任分担机制,已经取得了良好的减排效果。文中梳理分析《责任分担条例》修正案中关于成员国减排目标更新的内容、目标分配的原则与方法、灵活性机制,归纳了欧盟采用行政手段控制碳排放交易系统未涉及部门的温室气体排放的经验,并对中国如何构建充分考虑市场手段和行政手段的CO₂排放总量控制制度提出政策建议。     

Seasonal Variations of CH_4 Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China Are Driven by Agricultural Activities

Developed regions of the world represent a major atmospheric methane(CH_4) source, but these regional emissions remain poorly constrained. The Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region of China is densely populated(about 16% of China's total population) and consists of large anthropogenic and natural CH_4 sources. Here, atmospheric CH_4 concentrations measured at a 70-m tall tower in the YRD are combined with a scale factor Bayesian inverse(SFBI) modeling approach to constrain seasonal variations in CH_4 emissions. Results indicate that in 2018 agricultural soils(AGS, rice production) were the main driver of seasonal variability in atmospheric CH_4 concentration. There was an underestimation of emissions from AGS in the a priori inventories(EDGAR—Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research v432 or v50), especially during the growing seasons. Posteriori CH_4 emissions from AGS accounted for 39%(4.58 Tg, EDGAR v432) to 47%(5.21 Tg, EDGAR v50) of the total CH_4 emissions. The posteriori natural emissions(including wetlands and water bodies) were1.21 Tg and 1.06 Tg, accounting for 10.1%(EDGAR v432) and 9.5%(EDGAR v50) of total emissions in the YRD in2018. Results show that the dominant factor for seasonal variations in atmospheric concentration in the YRD was AGS,followed by natural sources. In summer, AGS contributed 42%(EDGAR v432) to 64%(EDGAR v50) of the CH_4 concentration enhancement while natural sources only contributed about 10%(EDGAR v50) to 15%(EDGAR v432). In addition, the newer version of the EDGAR product(EDGAR v50) provided more reasonable seasonal distribution of CH_4 emissions from rice cultivation than the old version(EDGAR v432).     

中国进出口贸易碳转移排放测算方法分析与评价

目前中国的碳转移排放测算方法有很多,虽然方法不尽相同,但总的结论和计算出的变化趋势类似。造成碳转移量测算结果产生较大差异的原因主要有两方面,一是碳排放强度的测算模型不同,二是对于中国加工贸易转移碳排放的认识不同。测算避免转移排放量时,如果不考虑加工贸易的影响,在某些年份（如2002年）甚至会得到＂中国是碳转移的净进口国...     

低碳旅游发展的困境与对策

低碳旅游尚处于起步阶段,发展中遇到了诸多困境。该文纵览国内外相关理论研究与实践结果,从旅游者碳排放认知、旅游业碳足迹测度和碳补偿措施有效性等方面,梳理与分析了低碳旅游发展的困境。提出理论上应从澄清相关概念、界定旅游业系统、统一碳足迹测度口径、旅游业碳排放影响等方面加强研究,实践上应从政府领导、主体参与、重点领域突破、多重措施并举等方面建立低碳旅游实施机制,以期丰富旅游环境研究视角,为我国低碳旅游发展提供理论指导和实践参考。     

中国产业结构变动的碳排放效应研究——基于省级面板数据

在二氧化碳(CO2)排放影响因素的模型框架内,利用1995—2008年中国省级的面板数据,着重分析产业结构演变对CO2排放的影响。结果表明,产业结构演进决定CO2排放的基本走向,刚性产业结构演进特征使单位CO2排放居高不下;二产主导的产业结构对我国CO2排放产生了明显的增速效应,延缓了CO2排放倒"U"型变化过程。因此,依托低碳经济助推产业结构升级,优化第一、第二产业内部结构,大力发展第三产业,转向低能耗低CO2排放的产业结构是中国低碳经济发展的必由之路。     

A Review of the Scientific Assessment and Research on Household Carbon Emission

Household consumption represents an important proportion of all energy consumption,and it is an important source of CO₂ emission. But household consumption and carbon emissions are often overlooked in climate change policies and measures. Through literature review, the research status of household consumption and carbon emissions were reviewed. On this basis, the main aspects and directions of the research are summarized and the main research of household carbon emissions should focus on three aspects in the future: ①The impact of income, consumption levels and other factors on household carbon emission; ②The relationship between direct and indirect carbon emissions of household carbon emission; ③The structure and source of household carbon emission. In future research, there are four issues which need in-depth study: ①Index and models study of household carbon emissions;②Impact of demographic change on household carbon emissions; ③The path of how to achieve sustainable and green urban lifestyle;④The relevant policy research of household carbon emissions.