神头泉流量衰减原因分析及趋势预测

运用季节分解、回归分析等时序分析方法对该泉42年(1958-1999)的月观测流量资料和大气降水、人类开采地下水资料进行了分析处理。结果表明大气降水的减少是神头泉流量衰减的主要原因,其控制着泉流量变化的基本趋势,而人类活动对泉流量的衰减起促进作用,属次要因素。其中,泉流量对大气降水变化的响应存在11年的滞后期,对390～450mm区间的年降雨量变化响应最敏感; 而泉流量对人类活动的响应只有在第四系孔隙水开采量大于5×107m3/a时才明显。在此基础上,预测了泉流量未来演化趋势。此外,对山西近几十年来出现泉流量普遍减少的原因进行了讨论。      

Environmental Factors Affecting the Occurrence and Production of the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in Funka Bay, Japan

The concentration of nutrients was measured during the spring phytoplankton bloom in Funka Bay over a 5-year period (1988–92). During the winter mixing period, nutrient concentrations were similar in every year except in 1990 when a high concentration of silicate was observed. There was interannual variation in the onset of the bloom, presumably depending on the stability of the water column. The bloom developed in early March when the Oyashio water (OW), which has a lower density than the existing winter water, flowed into the bay and the pycnocline formed near the bottom of the euphotic zone. In this case, high chl a was found only in the euphotic zone and nutrient utilization was limited to this zone. In the year when the inflow of OW was not observed by April, the bloom took place at the end of March without strong stratification and high chl a was found in the whole water column, accompanied by a decrease in nutrients. Interannual differences were found not only at the beginning of the decrease, but also in the thickness of the layer which showed a decrease in nutrients. Primary production from the beginning to the end of the spring bloom was estimated from the nutrient budget before and after the spring bloom. The integrated production over the spring bloom period ranged from 25 to 73 g C m^-2, which accounts for 19–56% of the annual production in this bay. We found that the timing of the bloom was strongly dependent on the inflow of OW, but the amount of production was not clearly related to this timing.     

大气环流模式与春玉米生长模拟模式联接的影响评估模拟试验

根据春玉米田间试验资料和历史气候资料,对春玉米生长模拟模式进行了验证与灵敏性分析,在此基础上,运用逐步订正法将当前气候前景和大气环流模式输出资料结合历史气候资料生成的未来气候情景订正到１ｏ×１ｏ网格点上,与春玉米生长模拟模式相联接,就未来气候变化对我国东北地区春玉米生长、发育和最终产量的可能影响进行了网格化定量模拟,并对一些适应性对策的效果进行了定性或定量的分析。结果表明,在ＤＫＲＺＯＰＹＣ模拟的未来情景下,若保持当前作物品种和生产技术措施不变,研究区域除北部将平均增产７０％外,其余地区都将有不同程度的减产,幅度在－１０％～－５０％之间,而在ＮＣＡＲ模拟的情景下,中西部地区将增产,其它地区可维持当前产量水平。适应性对策将对开发利用未来可能的气候资源,减缓未来气候变化的负效应,充分发挥其正效应起到积极作用,进而绝大部分区域将受益于未来水热条件的改变。     

龙马溪组页岩数字岩心LSM-RVM数值建模方法研究及TOC含量影响分析

页岩气储层中含有大量有机碳(TOC),其丰度与成熟度对页岩力学特性有重要影响.建立包含TOC的精细数值模型,将有助于探索页岩微结构与矿物组分含量对等效弹性模量的作用程度,是“甜点区”预测的重要理论基础.本文提出了一种离散数值建模方法,基于高精度成像技术,采用晶格弹簧-随机孔隙耦合模型(LSM-RVM)模拟包含多种矿物组分及不同成熟度干酪根的数字岩心,分析TOC成熟度及含量对弹性参数的影响.在该模型中,参数设置(数值阻尼与加载应变速率)至关重要,选取不当会对计算精度造成一定影响.研究结果表明,LSM-RVM能够生成符合TOC及多种矿物实际分布特征的数值模型,是一种精细数值建模方法.     

敦煌月牙泉湖近百年水位变化及其原因分析

敦煌月牙泉形成于第四纪全新世,距今约12 ka。因泉湖地处鸣沙山环抱之中,形似月牙并兼具沙水共生的淡水泉湖特征,成为世界瞩目的自然地理环境的重要地质遗迹。对月牙泉湖近百年水位动态变化进行了综合分析,认为月牙泉湖水位动态变化的综合原因可归结为气候和人为因素。1960年开始农业打井灌溉、党河水库和渠系的修建导致地下水补、排失衡,到2001年月牙泉湖水位下降9. 98 m,年均下降0. 24 m,致使区域性地下水位的下降是造成月牙泉湖水位下降的主要原因,气温的升高加大蒸发量是月牙泉湖水位动态变化的次要原因。通过月牙泉人工补水工程,2018~2019年月牙泉湖水位上升1. 58 m,湖水域面积由9472. 59 m2逐渐扩大到13334. 75 m2,昔日古人心中美丽的月牙泉面貌再次展现在我们的眼前。     

Numerical simulation and environmental impact prediction of karst groundwater in Sangu Spring Basin,China

The changes of development and utilization of karst groundwater in Sangu Spring Basin have made the original groundwater resource evaluation unable to meet the needs of future economic development. Based on analysis of existing data, combined with the characteristics of supplement, runoff and draining of regional karst groundwater, the Visual Modelflow software was used to build a numerical simulation model of Sangu spring Basin. The amount of karst groundwater resource and groundwater environment of the Basin were evaluated under different exploitation schemes, and the changes of karst groundwater environment in the future ten years were also predicted. The fitting error which is less than 0.5 m between the calculated value and measured value of the water level in the fitted borehole accounts for 93%. For the lithologically and structurally complex Sangu Spring Basin, the fitting effect of numerical simulation model was ideal. On the basis of the current mining amount of 111.80 million m³/a, the total redistributed exploited amount in the spring region was 61.79 million m³/a. Under the condition that the quantity of recoverable resources reached 173.59 million m³/a and under different precipitation schemes, all constraint conditions were satisfied, such as regional water level drawdown, maximum allowable water level drawdown in every simulated water source area and the flow rate of Guobi Spring. The results will provide a scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of karst groundwater in Sangu Spring Basin.     

黄海南部春季蓝点马鲛(Scomberomorus niphonius)渔场海洋学特征与渔期渔场分布

以国家"973"项目资料和历史资料为基础,研究了黄海南部水域渔业海洋学特征、蓝点马鲛洄游行为及与渔场形成、渔期更迭关系.侧重分析2006和2007年春季水温年际变化对蓝点马鲛渔场、渔期分布的影响.结果表明,相对于2006年冷春,2007年黄海南部水域升温较早,渔汛盛期出现于4月25日,较2006年的5月1日左右明显提前,10℃等温线分布是早春南黄海蓝点马鲛鱼群分布与形成渔场的重要因子,而密集中心渔场往往出现于5月初;文中还讨论了南黄海大沙和吕泗渔场的性质特征,以期为蓝点马鲛渔情预报提供基础资料.     

山西省春播期降水时空变化及环流异常特征

利用山西省72个国家气象站1961—2020年4—5月的降水量资料、NECP/NCAR月平均再分析资料和UKMO HADISST1海表温度资料，采用EOF、气候倾向率、滑动平均、小波分析、合成分析等方法，对春播期降水的时空变化及环流异常特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）山西省春播期降水量场主要有全省一致型，南北差异型以及南北和中部差异型这3种主要模态，分别占总年数的63.3%，25%和11.7%。（2）春播期降水量的增多趋势不显著，共经历了5个气候变化阶段，并存在 2～3年和12～13年的振荡周期。（3）在春播期异常多雨年期间，500 hPa高度场上呈“东高、西低”等分布特征，850 hPa风场上我国中东部地区盛行偏南气流，海平面气压场呈北高南低分布型，前冬赤道中东太平洋呈El Nino分布型，印度洋呈偶极子分布型，大西洋呈三极子分布型；而在异常少雨年期间，环流及海温特征则基本相反。     

春节期间气象条件对南京大气环境(污染/清洁)的影响

利用1981—2015年南京常规气象观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了南京市春节前后主要的天气形势及其对大气环境的可能影响。结果表明:(1)1981—2015年,南京地区春节前共出现冷空气过程19次,春节期间出现21次;春节前共出现降水天气过程27次,而春节期间共出现25次,降水持续时间均为2 d左右。春节前和春节期间,既没有冷空气又无降水天气过程的年份均为8 a。(2)影响的冷空气过程以中西路为主,春节前冷中心位于贝加尔湖以西,春节期间冷空气中心位置略偏南,强度略偏大;500 hPa以两脊一槽型分布,南京处于槽区,槽后冷空气不断南下影响南京;在冷空气影响下,南京以偏北风为主,且南京都处于大风速区;冷空气过程有利于污染物的清除和扩散。(3)降水过程期间,冷暖气流交汇于南京地区,南京处于南北气流交汇的鞍型场中,同时湿度大,且处于风场辐合区内,有利于降水天气的发生,进而对于大气污染物也起到了稀释和清除的作用。(4)南京市处于海平面气压的均压场中,地面风速较小,这样的天气条件不利于污染扩散;同时近地层相对湿度适中,有利于污染物半径吸湿扩大,进而增加大气污染物浓度;从温度层结来看,南京地区上空700～1 000 hPa气温基本一致,这样的中性层对污染物的向上扩散也起到一定的一致作用;上述这些气象条件都有利于大气污染浓度增加。春节期间的稳定天气形势会加剧污染天气的发生。