华北区年高温日数区域平均方法及趋势分析

利用华北地区33个代表站1961—2002年间的年高温日数序列,采用均生函数和最优子集回归法,设计出具有较强拟合能力和未来趋势预测的数理统计模型。该模型能较好地拟合历史实况,其信度达到了99%;也使用该模型做出华北地区2003—2005年3年的高温日数趋势预测,对2003年和2004年做出的趋势预测效果较好。     

黄土高原降水量空间插值方法研究

为了研究黄土高原降水量的空间分布特征,利用ARCGIS软件分别采用多种空间内插方法对黄土高原108个气象站点1980-2009年30年间的平均年降水量进行空降插值。经过正交检验以及内插检验得到最优的插值方法为普通克里金法,最终对利用该方法获得的黄土高原降水量内插图进行分析,得出近30年来黄土高原区降水量分布呈现出明显的由东南向西北递减的态势。     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111001411

正Three-dimensional geological modeling(3DGM) assists geologists to quantitatively study in three-dimensional(3D) space structures that define temporal and spatial relationships between geological objects.The 3D property model can also be used to infer or deduce causes of geological objects.3DGM technology provides technical support for extraction of diverse geoscience information,3D modeling,and quantitative calculation of mineral resources.Based on metallogenic concepts and an ore deposit model, 3DGM technology is applied to analyze geological characteristics of the Tongshan Cu deposit in order to define a metallogenic model and develop a virtual borehole technology;a BP neural network and a 3D interpolation technique were combined to integrate multiple geoscience information in a 3D environment. The results indicate:(1) on basis of the concept of magmatic-hydrothermal Cu polymetallic mineralization and a porphyry Cu deposit model,a spatial relational database of multiple geoscience information for mineralization in the study area(geology,geophysics,geochemistry,borehole,and cross-section data) was established,and 3D metallogenic geological objects including mineralization stratum,granodiorite, alteration rock,and magnetic anomaly were constructed;(2) on basis of the 3D ore deposit model,23,800 effective surveys from 94 boreholes and 21 sections were applied to establish 3D orebody models with a kriging interpolation method;(3) combined 23,800 surveys involving 21 sections,using VC++ and OpenGL platform,virtual borehole and virtual section with BP network,and an improved inverse distance interpolation(IDW) method were used to predict and delineate mineralization potential targets (Cu-grade of cell not less than 0.1%);(4) comparison of 3D ore bodies,metallogenic geological objects of mineralization,and potential targets of mineralization models in the study area,delineated the 3D spatial and temporal relationship and causal processes among the ore bodies,alteration rock,metallogenic stratum,intrusive rock,and the Tongshan Fault.This study provides important technical support and a scientific basis for assessment of the Tongshan Cu deposit and surrounding exploration and mineral resources.     

用于强震记录仿真地动位移的高精度累积数值积分方法研究

针对传统梯形积分方法的低精度缺陷,提出了一套高精度累积数值积分方法.首先对被积数据进行分段三次Hermite插值,之后采用积分区间四等分的Newton-Cotes积分公式进行积分.误差分析表明,本方法精度远高于梯形积分方法精度.在对构建信号进行方法验证的前提下,采用2013年4月20日雅安芦山地震和2008年5月12日汶川地震的真实强震动加速度记录对本方法进行测试,测试结果表明,本方法适用于将强震动加速度记录积分为位移记录.     

An evaluation of void‐filling interpolation methods for SRTM data

The Digital Elevation Model that has been derived from the February 2000 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) has been one of the most important publicly available new spatial data sets in recent years. However, the ‘finished’ grade version of the data (also referred to as Version 2) still contains data voids (some 836,000 km²)—and other anomalies—that prevent immediate use in many applications. These voids can be filled using a range of interpolation algorithms in conjunction with other sources of elevation data, but there is little guidance on the most appropriate void‐filling method. This paper describes: (i) a method to fill voids using a variety of interpolators, (ii) a method to determine the most appropriate void‐filling algorithms using a classification of the voids based on their size and a typology of their surrounding terrain; and (iii) the classification of the most appropriate algorithm for each of the 3,339,913 voids in the SRTM data. Based on a sample of 1304 artificial but realistic voids across six terrain types and eight void size classes, we found that the choice of void‐filling algorithm is dependent on both the size and terrain type of the void. Contrary to some previous findings, the best methods can be generalised as: kriging or inverse distance weighting interpolation for small and medium size voids in relatively flat low‐lying areas; spline interpolation for small and medium‐sized voids in high‐altitude and dissected terrain; triangular irregular network or inverse distance weighting interpolation for large voids in very flat areas, and an advanced spline method (ANUDEM) for large voids in other terrains.     

Assessing housing growth when census boundaries change

The US Census provides the primary source of spatially explicit social data, but changing block boundaries complicate analyses of housing growth over time. We compared procedures for reconciling housing density data between 1990 and 2000 census block boundaries in order to assess the sensitivity of analytical methods to estimates of housing growth in Oregon. Estimates of housing growth varied substantially and were sensitive to the method of interpolation. With no processing and areal‐weighted interpolation, more than 35% of the landscape changed; 75–80% of this change was due to decline in housing density. This decline was implausible, however, because housing structures generally persist over time. Based on aggregated boundaries, 11% of the landscape changed, but only 4% experienced a decline in housing density. Nevertheless, the housing density change map was almost twice as coarse spatially as the 2000 housing density data. We also applied a dasymetric approach to redistribute 1990 housing data into 2000 census boundaries under the assumption that the distribution of housing in 2000 reflected the same distribution as in 1990. The dasymetric approach resulted in conservative change estimates at a fine resolution. All methods involved some type of trade‐off (e.g. analytical difficulty, data resolution, magnitude or bias in direction of change). However, our dasymetric procedure is a novel approach for assessing housing growth over changing census boundaries that may be particularly useful because it accounts for the uniquely persistent nature of housing over time.     

Comparative analysis of different techniques for spatial interpolation of rainfall data to create a serially complete monthly time series of precipitation for Sicily,Italy

The availability of good and reliable rainfall data is fundamental for most hydrological analyses and for the design and management of water resources systems. However, in practice, precipitation records often suffer from missing data values mainly due to malfunctioning of raingauge for specific time periods. This is an important issue in practical hydrology because it affects the continuity of rainfall data and ultimately influences the results of hydrologic studies which use rainfall as input. Many methods to estimate missing rainfall data have been proposed in literature and, among these, most are based on spatial interpolation algorithms.     

Evaluation of Diverse Geometric and Geostatistical Estimation Methods Applied to Annual Precipitation in Asturias (NW Spain)

Several alternative estimation and interpolation methods for making annual precipitation maps of Asturias are analysed. The data series in this study corresponds to the year 2003. There exists an evident relationship between precipitation and altitude, with a high correlation coefficient of 0.70, that reflects the hillside effect; that is, the increase in the amount of precipitation in more mountainous areas. The direct spatial variability of precipitation and of altitude and the cross variability of precipitation–altitude are defined by two exponential variogram models: one with a short-range structure (15–30 km) that reflects the control exerted by the lesser, local mountain ranges over the amount of precipitation; and another with a long-range structure (80 km) that supposes the influence over precipitation of the major mountainous alignments of the inland areas of the Cantabrian Mountain Range (Cordillera Cantábrica) situated between 60 and 90 km from the coastline. These variogram models had to be validated for coregionalization by the Pardo-Igúzquiza and Dowd method so as to be able to make the cokriging map. The geometric estimation methods employed were triangulation and inverse distance. The geostatistical estimation methods developed were simple kriging, ordinary kriging, kriging with a trend model (universal kriging), lognormal kriging, and cokriging. In all of these methods, a 3 × 3 km² grid was selected with a total of 2580 points to estimate, a circular search window of 60 km, and a relatively small number of samples with the aim of highlighting the local features and variations on isohyet maps. The kriging methods were implemented using the WinGslib software, incorporating two specific programs, Prog2 and Fichsurf, so as to be able then to make isohyet maps using the Surfer software. All the methods employed, apart from triangulation, rendered realistic maps with good fits to the values of the original data (precipitation) of the sample maps. The problem with triangulation lies not in the reliability of the estimates but in the fact that it gives rise to contrived maps because of the tendency of isohyets to present abundant triangular facets. The reliability of the methods was based on cross-validation analysis and on evaluation of the different types of errors, both in their values and in their graphical representations. Substantial differences were not found in the values of the errors that might discriminate some methods from others in an evident way. Bearing the aforesaid in mind, should we have to make an evaluation of the different estimation methods in decreasing order of acceptance, this would be: kriging with a trend model, inverse distance, cokriging, lognormal kriging, ordinary kriging, simple kriging, and triangulation. The application of other estimation methods such as colocated cokriging, kriging with an external drift, and kriging of variable local means (residual kriging) is dependent on the availability of a digital model of the terrain with an altitude grid of the region.     

关于一行《大衍历》的插值法

论证一行《大衍历》（Ａ．Ｄ．７２９）的二次不等间距插值法和刘焯《皇极历》（Ａ．Ｄ．６０４）的二次等间距插值法的实质完全相同，并没有一般所说的推广意义；否定了以往人们关于一行有意识地应用了三次插值法近似公式的说法．     

中岳嵩山高山站平均气温资料插补及其变化趋势分析

为明确近60 a来在近对流层自由大气底部这一特定高度上河南省中岳嵩山气温变化特征,在对河南省登封气象站月平均气温数据均一化的基础上,采用该站均一化数据构建嵩山站月平均气温模拟模型,对1990—2002年缺测数据插补,建立中岳嵩山高山国家基准气候站1956—2017年时间序列连续的月平均气温资料,采用线性回归对其进行气温变化趋势分析。结果表明：均一化处理对登封站月平均气温因台站迁移的非自然因素引起的非均一性取得了明显的校正效果。均一化后,1969—2017年登封站年平均气温由显著上升速率0.218℃/10 a增至0.310℃/10 a。利用独立数据对模型进行验证表明,总体上,嵩山站各月平均气温推算模型模拟值与实测值的线性相关系数和斜率分别为0.999和0.989(n=204,P < 0.01);1—12月各月模型验证检验参数的平均值相关系数为0.958、均方根误差为11.7%、平均绝对偏差为0.3℃、平均偏差为0.1℃、拟合指数为0.973、模拟效率为0.900,模型具有较好的模拟效果。1956—2017年嵩山站年平均气温增温显著,其速率为0.223℃/10 a。四季之间,以春季增温速率最大,为0.350℃/10 a;冬季和秋季次之;夏季增温不显著。各月之间,以2月增温速率最大,达0.445℃/10 a。