PREDICTING RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION WITH 2D MODEL FLOODSIM

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RIVER MORPHOLOGY AND CHANNEL STABILIZATION OF THE BRAHMAPUTRA RIVER IN BANGLADESH

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大型天然水体的环境效应研究

结合典型实例,论述大型天然水体－－堰塞湖从形成到消亡过程中产生的灾害链和环境效应链,包括堰塞湖的淹没、边岸再造、堰塞沉积物、次生洪水、永久性不良地质环境的灾害和环境效应对人民生命财产的威胁,以及对水利水电、航运、公路和铁路工程的不良影响。     

Using regional regression within index flood procedures and an empirical Bayesian estimator

Studies have illustrated the performance of at-site and regional flood quantile estimators. For realistic generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and short records, a simple index-flood quantile estimator performs better than two-parameter (2P) GEV quantile estimators with probability weighted moment (PWM) estimation using a regional shape parameter and at-site mean and L-coefficient of variation (L-CV), and full three-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimators. However, as regional heterogeneity or record lengths increase, the 2P-estimator quickly dominates. This paper generalizes the index flood procedure by employing regression with physiographic information to refine a normalized T-year flood estimator. A linear empirical Bayes estimator uses the normalized quantile regression estimator to define a prior distribution which is employed with the normalized 2P-quantile estimator. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that this empirical Bayes estimator does essentially as well as or better than the simpler normalized quantile regression estimator at sites with short records, and performs as well as or better than the 2P-estimator at sites with longer records or smaller L-CV.     

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.     

Role of hypsometry and planform in basin hydrologic response

The effects of variations of drainage basin morphometry and relief characteristics on flood peak magnitude and time-to-peak are investigated using simulated stream networks. The networks are produced by three models: headward growth, systematic capture, and minimum power relaxation. Translational and kinematic wave flood routing were used to generate synthetic hydrographs. Peak discharge and time-to-peak are predictable to a high degree by five different sets of morphometric-relief parameters. In order of decreasing order of importance in predictive ability the parameters characterize basin size, relative relief, basin concavity, and basin shape. Both simulated and natural stream networks exhibit strong dependence of planimetric morphometry upon basin concavity. The effect of this dependency is to increase the effect of basin concavity upon flood hydrographs.     

湖南盛夏两次连续性暴雨过程对比分析

利用常规气象观测资料和NECP的1°×1°再分析资料,从暴雨特征、天气背景和暴雨发生的动力、水汽、热力条件及非地转湿Q矢量等方面对2010年7月8—13日和2012年7月12—19日湖南两次大范围暴雨天气过程进行对比分析,并对暴雨造成的洪涝灾害成因进行阐述。结果表明：湖南两次暴雨过程的环流形势和水汽输送路径均存在一定程度的相似性;东北低涡和低层切变线是造成两次持续性暴雨过程的主要影响系统;850 hPa的θse高值区、垂直上升速度中心及湿Q矢量负值区与暴雨落区有较好的对应关系,对暴雨预报有一定的指示作用。第二次暴雨过程冷空气势力比第一次暴雨过程更强,低层切变线在湘北及湘中偏南地区摆动,使较强水汽辐合在中低层维持了5 d,因此第二次暴雨过程影响范围更广且持续时间更长。而第一次暴雨过程副热带高压更强盛,高、低空急流耦合作用更明显,垂直上升气流更强,高能高湿更易触发短时强降水;同时由于第一次暴雨过程开始前湖南全省降雨已经明显偏多,且强降雨带集中在湘北地区,加之受灾最严重的地区又属于地质灾害多发区,从而更易导致滑坡、崩塌和泥石流的发生。     

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios

At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios.This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20–40 B€ in 2050 and 30–100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth.     

改进的AHP在县域尺度暴雨洪涝风险评价的应用

以淮河流域为例,选取降水、土地利用、经济、人口等指标作为淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险指标,利用信息熵改进的层次分析法确定淮河流域暴雨洪涝的风险评估指标权重,并应用于县域尺度淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价。结果表明:(1)淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险空间分布整体呈现南部高、北部低,东西高、中部次之的形态。(2)改进的层次分析法得到的高风险区比传统方法的面积减少,市县个数下降,而次高风险区、中风险区、次低以及低风险区面积比之传统方法均有增加。同时风险平均值升高,导致受灾程度可能加大。(3)改进方法得到的岳西县风险等级由高风险区降为次高风险区,低于金寨县风险等级。宿州市风险等级由次高风险区降为中风险区,较灵璧、泗县风险低,与实际情况更为相符,提高了淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价精度。     

The Deccan Trap – Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary connection; new 40Ar/39Ar ages and critical assessment of existing argon data pertinent to this hypothesis

The Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary (KPgB) was dated by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method herein from the western interior of North America at 65.48 ± 0.12 Ma (1σ), in good agreement with other recent published estimates. For the Deccan Traps, India, new argon ages as well as others available in the literature, are assessed for reliability based on (a) statistical reliability of plateau/isochron sections and (b) freshness of material dated utilizing the alteration index method. From tholeiitic lavas from the Composite Western Ghats Section (CWGS), only six ages are found to be reliable estimates of the time of crystallization. These ages along with the magnetic polarity of the lavas agree with the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS) at ∼67–64 Ma. Alkaline rocks from the Anjar area of Kutch, provide three reliable ages that suggest a hiatus in lava extrusion around KPgB. For the Rajahmundry basalts, the upper flow’s age defines its formation during chron 29n; a single age from the lower reversed polarity flow appears somewhat dichotomous when plotted against the GPTS. The reliable lava ages indicate the most voluminous (reversed polarity) sections of the CWGS were extruded at a time statistically indistinguishable from that of the KPgB. The Deccan Trap – KPgB faunal extinction hypothesis remains plausible, but must compete with the latest report, favoring a very close temporal connection (∼0.03 m.y.) between the Chixculub (Impact) Crater and the KPgB.