The depletion of oil

The trend of previous estimates of the world's ultimate recovery of oil suggests a figure of 1650 BBO, of which 1438 BBO have been discovered and 978 BBO remain to be produced. Some large reported reserve figures are questioned. Importance is attached to the mid-point of depletion when rising production tends to give way to decline. The share of the world's supply coming from six Middle East countries is set to continue to rise from its 1986 low of 16% to as much as 50% by 2010, with the likely consequence of higher oil prices and serious political implications. The world is rapidly approaching a turning point when it has to face the consequences of an irreversible decline in oil production.     

Probabilistic Models for the Probability of Wave Breaking and Whitecap Coverage Based on Kinematic Breaking Criterion

More and more researches show that neither the critical downward acceleration nor the critical slope of water waves is a universal constant. On the contrary, they vary with particular wave conditions. This fact moders the models either for the probability of wave breaking B or for the whitecap coverage W based on these criteria difficult to apply. In this paper and the one which follows we seek to develop models for the prediction of both B and W based on the kinematical criterion. First, several joint probabihstic distribution functions (PDFs) of wave characteristics are derived, based on which the breaking properties B and W are estimated. The estimation is made on the assumption that a wave breaks ff the horizontal velocity of water particles at its crest exceeds the local wave celerity, and whitecapping occurs in regions of fluid where water particles travel faster than the waves. The consequent B and W depend on wave spectral moments of orders 0 to 4.Then the JONSWAP spectrum is used to represent the fetch-limited sea waves in deep water, so as to relate the probahility of wave breaking and the whitecap coverage with wind parameters. To this end, the time-averaging technique proposed by Glazman (1986) is applied to the estimation of the spectral moments involved, and furthermore, the theoretical models are compared with available observations collected from published literature. From the comparison, the averaging time scale is determined. The final models show that the probability of wave breaking as well as the whitecap coverage depends on the dimensionless fetch. The agreement between these models and the database is reasonable.     

Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of jack-up platforms

This paper is concerned with the models appropriate for the dynamic assessment of jack-ups, concentrating particularly on the long-term response due to random ocean waves and on work-hardening plasticity models used for spud-can response. A methodology for scaling of short-term statistics, calculated using a Constrained NewWave technique, is shown in a numerical experiment for an example jack-up and central North Sea location. The difference in long-term extreme response statistics due to various footing assumptions is emphasised. Results for two environmental load conditions are described (one excluding and one including wind and current effects) and the role of sea-state severity in the variation of short-term extreme response statistics is also highlighted.     

深圳大鹏湾表层沉积物碎屑矿物空间分布特征

立足样品测试数据,利用空间分析、空间插值、地质统计以及景观生态学方法,深入分析了深圳大鹏湾表层沉积物碎屑矿物的空间分布特征,并使用球状模型对相应半变异函数进行理论建模。结果表明,碎屑矿物分布的Hurst分维数为0.28～0.97,空间几何分维数为1.03～1.72;Moran Ⅰ型空间自相关系数-0.15～0.53。在此基础上,以等值线分布所包围范围作为划分尺度,以Shannon-Wiener信息指数作为度量,得到的矿物分布所反映出的信息量或者富集程度指数为0.88～1.85。     

用Gumbel极值分布推算气候极值的方法

介绍了用Gumbel极值分布理论推算气候极值的矩法、Thomas曲线公式和最小二乘法。并计算多年一遇的年最高气温、年最大均风速、年最大日降雨量和年最大波高。指出,变率小的要素极值再现期短;变率大的要素极值再现期长;Thomas曲线公式的计算结果较其它两种方法接近历史实况,且计算简便。     

运用德尔菲调查—灰色统计法确立水库鱼产力综合评价中的指标权重体系

本文运用德尔菲方法对水库鱼产力综合评价中指标权重的合理分配问题作了专家调查,并采用灰色统计法对调查结果进行归纳处理,从而确立了一个水库鱼产力影响因素诸层次各方面的评价指标权重体系,可供今后的评价工作参考使用。     

渤海中、南部表层沉积硅藻的定量分析

对取自渤海中、南部海底表层的44个沉积物样品进行了硅藻分析。样品中共含硅藻20属41种,主要是潮间带、沿岸性底栖或浮游种类,其中尤以具槽直链藻Melosira sulc-ata和小环藻Cyclotella最多见。对本区的表层沉积硅藻用多元统计方法进行分区,共划分出三区、两亚区,井与其他海区进行了比较。