Analyse fréquentielle régionale des précipitations journalières maximales annuelles au Québec,Canada / Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum daily precipitation in Quebec,Canada

Abstract

Abstract A complete regional analysis of daily precipitations is carried out in the southern half of the province of Quebec, Canada. The first step of the regional estimation procedure consists of delineating the homogeneous regions within the area of study and testing for homogeneity within each region. The delineation of homogeneous regions is based on using L-moment ratios. A simulation-based testing of statistical homogeneity allows one to verify the inter-site variability. The second step of the procedure deals with the identification of the regional distribution and the estimation of its parameters. The General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was identified as an appropriate parent distribution. This distribution has already been recommended by several previous research studies for regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes. The parameters of the GEV distribution are estimated based on the computation of the regional L-CV, L-C_S and the mean of annual maximal daily precipitations. The third step consists of the estimation of precipitation quantiles corresponding to various return periods. The final procedure allows for the estimation of these quantiles at sites where no precipitation information is available. The use of a jack-knife resampling procedure with data from the province of Quebec allows one to demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the regional estimation procedure. Values of the root mean square error were below 10% for a return period of 20 years, and 20% for a return period of 100 years.     

历史文献中气候信息的评价

本文对我国史料中所载气候信息进行了评价。结论是:①对于史料所载的某一气候事件,我们将其状态分辨取越细,所获取的信息越少;②在分析过程中,对误差要求低些,所获取的信息反而高些;③就已记录的气候事件而言,官方组织的记载所提供的气候信息最多,私人笔札次之,方志类书最次。     

Tectonics of the Scandian orogeny and the Western Gneiss Region in southern Norway

Two crust-forming events dominate the Precambrian history of the Western Gneiss Region (WGR) at about 1800–1600 Ma and 1550–1400 Ma. The influence of the Sveconorwegian orogeny (1200–900 Ma) is restricted to the region south of Moldefjord-Romsdalen. A series of anorthosites and related intrusives are present, possibly derived from the now-lost western margin of the Baltic craton that may have been emplaced in the WGR as an allochthonous unit before the Ordovician.The Caledonian development is split into two orogenic phases, the Finnmarkian (Cambrian — Early Ordovician) and the Scandian (Late Ordovician/Early Silurian — Devonian). The lower tectonic units west of the Trondheim Trough may be Finnmarkian nappes ; they were part of the lower plate during the Scandian continental collision. The Blåhö nappe is correlated with dismembered eclogite bodies along the coast. A regional change of nappe transport direction from 090 to 135 marks the initiation of an orogen-parallel sinistral shear component around 425 Ma. The change caused the development of a complex sinistral strike-slip system in the Trondheim region consisting of the Möre-Tröndelag Fault Zone and the Gränse contact. The latter cut the crust underneath the already emplaced Trondheim Nappe Complex, thus triggering the intrusion of the Fongen-Hyllingen igneous complex, and initiating subsidence of the Trondheim Trough, and was subsequently turned from a strike-slip zone into an extensional fault. Minor southward transport of the Trondheim Nappe Complex rejuvenated some thrusts between the Lower and the Middle Allochthon. A seismic reflector underneath the WGR is interpreted to be a blind thrust which subcrops into the Faltungsgraben. During Middle Devonian orogenic collapse, detachment faulting brought higher units, now eroded elsewhere, down to the present outcrop level, such as the Bergen and Dalsfjord nappe and the Old Red basins.     

A simplified computational approach for prediction of transient climatic conditions in underground mine airways

Summary A simplified approach for prediction of transient climatic conditions in an underground airway os presented. The dry surface temperature of the airway is calculated using a finite difference scheme, whereas the wet surface temperature is determined following the concept of pseudo-base-temperature of air and using the value of thermal gradient at the dry surface as obtained from the finite difference solution of the temperature profile in the dry rock. The air-current temperatures are regularly evaluated after a suitable time span so as to simulate a real-case situation, and the re-evaluated air-current temperatures are used for further calculations. For increasing age of the airway the wet surface temperature obtained by the finite difference scheme, with an appropriate value of thermal diffusivity, is compared with its value determined by the pseudo-base-temperature approach.     

多层递推平稳模型

通过对小概率事件历史样本作多层递推迭代，逐次改变引入样本数求取权函数，建立一种平稳统计模式。模式信息容量大，收敛快，克服了常规统计模式的局限性，在灾害性天气客观预报模型应用中取得了明显效果。     

局地云量变化气候效应的数值模拟

本文用统计得到的东半球夏季平均云量资料，利用改进的云－辐射计算模式，在三维有限区域模式中模拟局地云量变化的气候效应。模拟结果表明，高原地区和热带辐合带云量变化造成的气候效应都主要表现在青藏高原地区。在低反照率时，高原地区云量减少使该地区地表加热，引起高低空气压系统加强；高反照率时结果相反。热带辐合带云量减少会引起青藏高原地区降温和气压系统减弱。     

广州市蔬菜生产布局与“渡淡”问题探讨

本文分析了广州市蔬菜供应出现淡季的主要原因，指出现行蔬菜生产布局的不合理性，并提出合理调整生产布局，改善淡季蔬菜供应的基本设想。     

中国西部积雪对我国汛期降水的影响

本文利用台站及卫星资料建立了中国西部积雪３０年逐月时间序列。该序列是目前资料时间最长、最好的序列，为研究该区积雪月际和年际变化及其影响提供了较可靠的依据。中国西部冬春积雪对我国汛期降水的影响平均为负相关趋势，与６月降水的相关分布较有规律，冬春多（少），其它地区６月降水偏多（少）。我国西部多（少）雪对６月从份５００ｈＰａ高度的变化是：高原北边高纬高度降低（升高）及副热地区升高（降低），有（不）利于高     

模拟人类活动影响气候变化的新进展

文章给出近几年国内外研究人类活动影响全球气候变化的数值模拟的新进展。     

山西地震带历史地震序列的统计分析

在工程地震工作中需要知道某地震带或某地区未来100年内的地震活动水平,以便适当选择历史地震的统计时段,从而得到和地震活动水平相适应的不同潜在震源区的各级地震的年平均发生率。 本文利用极值理论、最大熵原理、马尔可夫模型的方法、莫尔纳方法和伯努里模型方法计算了山西地震带未来100年内中强震的年平均发生率、平均重现期大于等于某级地震的个数和发震概率,计算结果表明,山西地震带未来百年内将发生≥6.0级地震3次,发震概率为0.94左右;将发生≥6.5级地震1—2次,发震概率为0.84左右;有可能发生≥7.0级地震,发震概率为0.53左右;发生≥7.5级地震的可能性不大,发震概率为0.32左右;发生≥8.0级地震的可能性很小,发震概率为0.15左右。