The seismic hazard assessment of the Dead Sea rift, Jordan

The Dead Sea fault system and its branching faults represent one of the most tectonically active regions in the Middle East. The aim of this study is to highlight the degree of hazards related to the earthquake activities associated with the Dead Sea rift, in terms of speculating the possible future earthquakes. The present investigation mainly is based on available data and vertical crustal modeling of Jordan and the Dead Sea model for the Dead Sea basin with particular emphasis of the recent earthquake activities, which occurred on December 31st, 2003 (Mc = 3.7), February 11th, 2004 (strongest Mc = 4.9 R), and March 15th, 2004 (Mc = 4). The present research examines the location of the strong events and correlates them with the various tectonic elements in the area. The source mechanism of the main shock and the aftershock events is also examined. The analyses were based on the available short period seismogram data, which was recorded at the Natural Resources Authority of Jordan, Seismological Observatory. The seismic energy appears to have migrated from the south to the north during the period from December 31st up to March 12th, where the released seismic energy showed a migration character to the southern block of the eastern side of the Dead Sea, which led the seismic event to occur on March 15th.     

Reservoir description using dynamic parameterisation selection with a combined stochastic and gradient search

There is a correspondence between flow in a reservoir and large scale permeability trends. This correspondence can be derived by constraining reservoir models using observed production data. One of the challenges in deriving the permeability distribution of a field using production data involves determination of the scale of resolution of the permeability. The Adaptive Multiscale Estimation (AME) seeks to overcome the problems related to choosing the resolution of the permeability field by a dynamic parameterisation selection. The standard AME uses a gradient algorithm in solving several optimisation problems with increasing permeability resolution. This paper presents a hybrid algorithm which combines a gradient search and a stochastic algorithm to improve the robustness of the dynamic parameterisation selection. At low dimension, we use the stochastic algorithm to generate several optimised models. We use information from all these produced models to find new optimal refinements, and start out new optimisations with several unequally suggested parameterisations. At higher dimensions we change to a gradient-type optimiser, where the initial solution is chosen from the ensemble of models suggested by the stochastic algorithm. The selection is based on a predefined criterion. We demonstrate the robustness of the hybrid algorithm on sample synthetic cases, which most of them were considered insolvable using the standard AME algorithm.     

Temporal behavior of the background seismicity rate in central Japan, 1998 to mid-2003

We studied the temporal behavior of the background shallow seismicity rate in 700 circular areas across inland Japan. To search for and test the significance of the possible rate changes in background seismicity, we developed an efficient computational method that applies the space–time ETAS model proposed by Ogata in 1998 to the areas. Also, we conducted Monte Carlo tests using a simulated catalog to validate the model we applied. Our first finding was that the activation anomalies were found so frequently that the constant background seismicity hypothesis may not be appropriate and/or the triggered event model with constraints on the parameters may not adequately describe the observed seismicity. However, quiescence occasionally occurs merely by chance. Another outcome of our study was that we could automatically find several anomalous background seismicity rate changes associated with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Very significant seismic activation was found before the M6.1 Mt. Iwate earthquake of 1998. Also, possible seismic quiescence was found in an area 150 km southwest of the focal region of the M7.3 Western Tottori earthquake of 2000. The seismicity rate in the area recovered after the mainshock.     

长沙某高边坡支护设计优化

结合长沙某高边坡支护工程实例，详细研究边坡岩土条件及环境条件，充分挖掘岩土参数潜力：≯耋翌睾；方綦建藉蓑术、经济对比分析，优选锚杆网格梁法进行边坡加固支护。实践表明，锚杆网格梁法是一种加固高边坡性价比很好的方法。     

Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

Effect of particles on the photodegradation of PAHs in natural waters-A case study for the Yellow River

Photodegradation of chrysene, benzo （a） pyrene and benzo （g, h, i） perylene in natural water of the Yellow River was studied using simulation sunlight. The effects of particulates on the photodegradation were explored. Several results arose from this study. （1） The photodegradation of PAHs can be fitted with first-order kinetics when no particulate exists in water system, and the first-order constant increases with decreasing of initial concentration of PAHs. The photodegradation rates of the three PAHs are related to their molecule absorption spectrum. （2） The existence of loess exerts two kinds of effects on the photodegradation of PAHs, including the inner filter effects and the photosensitizing effects of humic substance in loess. These two contrary effects lead to the difference of net effects among different contents of loess. When the loess contents are 0.1 and 5.0 g/L, the existence of loess stimulates the photodegradation of chrysene, benzo （a） pyrene. When the loess content is 5.0 g/L, the existence of loess stimulates the photodegradation of benzo （g, h, i） perylene. In addition, the photodegradation of PAHs can be fitted with the second-order kinetics when there is loess in the water system. （3） The soluble humic substances in loess can accelerate the photodegradation of PAHs while the in soluble part cannot. （4） Since the soluble humic substances in the suspended solids of the river have been dissolved in water,     

川中丘陵区土壤颗粒分形特征

分析了27个紫色土丘陵区土壤样品的机械组成，运用分形模型计算出土壤颗粒分形维数D（D=2．817—3．030），探讨了分形维数D与土壤粒度组成、土壤抗蚀性之间的关系，并分析了不同土地利用方式下土壤颗粒分形维数D与土壤有机质含量（O．M）、土壤容重（B.D）的相关关系。研究表明：土壤颗粒分形维数D能够很好的表征土壤质地，重点反映〈0．05mm的细颗粒物质，尤其是粘粒，其次是粉粒；与土壤有机质含量（O．M）、土壤容重（B．D）均达到极显著水平；其次分形维数D还能作为评价土壤水土流失和土壤生态恢复的指标。     

大气CO2浓度升高对土壤中不同粒级碳的影响

不同粒级土壤中的碳有着不同的周转规律，在高CO2浓度条件下，它们含量的变化将在一定程度上反映土壤碳是累积还是减少，对明确土壤碳的变化趋势有重要意义．采用田间培养试验初步模拟研究在高CO2浓度条件下土壤不同粒级碳的分布．结果表明，加入秸秆培养1年，由于CO2浓度升高的原因导致在低氮（LN）、常规氮（NN）和高氮（HN）水平下土壤中碳分别增加0．01、1．10、1．22g／kg，表现为粒级〈53μm土壤颗粒中碳分别增加1．53、2．19、2．70g／kg．粒级〈53μmm土壤颗粒碳量的增加，主要是由于其重量分配百分数显著增加36．2％，碳浓度增加5．4％；粒级〉250μm和250～53μm土壤颗粒部分虽然其碳浓度分别增加20．8％和17．3％（P〈0．05），怛由于重量分配百分数分别显著降低22．8％和36．1％，结果碳量降低．试验表明高CO2浓度导致不同粒级土壤的分配及碳浓度的变化；高氮施肥水平下有增加土壤碳量特别是小粒级土壤碳量的趋势．     

Optimization of SAGD Well Elevation

The application of steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) to recover heavy oil sands is becoming increasingly important in the northern Alberta McMurray Formation because of the vast resources/reserves accessible with this mechanism. Selecting the stratigraphic elevations of SAGD well pairs is a vital decision for reservoir evaluation and planning. The inherent uncertainty in the distribution of geological variables significantly influences this decision. Geostatistical simulation is used to capture geological uncertainty, which is used can be transformed into a distribution of the best possible well pair elevations. A simple exhaustive calculation scheme is used to determine the optimum stratigraphic location of a SAGD well pair where the recovery R is maximized. There are three basic steps to the methodology: (1) model the uncertainty in the top continuous bitumen (TCB) and bottom continuous bitumen (BCB) surfaces, (2) calculate the recovery at all possible elevation increments within the TCB and BCB interval, and (3) identify the elevation that maximizes R. This is repeated for multiple TCB/BCB pairs of surfaces to assess uncertainty. The methodology is described and implemented on a subset of data from the Athabasca Oilsands in Fort McMurray, Alberta.