基于集成综合评价法的气象服务满意度分析

气象服务满意度分析在公众气象服务满意度评价业务上起着非常关键的作用。针对我国31个省市的气象服务满意度现状,采用2010年全国公众气象服务评估调查数据,分别运用主成分分析法和熵值法进行分析,得到两种关于城市气象服务满意度的排序结果。但主成分分析法侧重考虑变量的相关性以及熵值法侧重考虑变量的不确定性,故将两种排序结果在通过一致性检验的基础上,运用集成综合评价法得到另外一种新的排序结果,介于以上两种结果之间。因此得到一个关于城市气象服务满意度的新认识,并给出提高气象服务满意度的建议。     

黄土高原地区乡村性空间特征及其与可达性格局关系

在乡村转型重构的关键时期以及城乡融合背景下,可达性作为驱动乡村地域特征改变的直接媒介,对乡村减贫及可持续发展产生重要影响。以县域为基本空间单元,构建了刻画乡村性和可达性的指标体系,定量测度了1990年、2000年、2010年、2015年黄土高原地区243个县域乡村性与可达性指数,探索黄土高原地区县域乡村性和可达性的时空演变特征,采用探索性空间数据方法,引入空间计量经济模型,对乡村性与可达性的集聚特征及关系进行计量分析。结果显示：① 研究区乡村性整体呈减弱态势、差异不断增大,呈现“西高东低”分布格局;可达性整体呈增强趋势、差异不断缩小,“东高西低”的分布格局基本不变。② 乡村性与可达性空间分布均呈较强的正空间自相关,以“榆林-庆阳”一线为界分布,但集聚态势总体不断减弱;其次,可达性的提升对乡村性呈负向影响且波动增强,低可达性-高乡村性类型主要分布在西北的青海、甘肃、宁夏境内,高可达性-低乡村性类型主要分布在东部经济发展水平较高的地级市周边县市。③ 乡村性的空间溢出效应显著,表现出显著的空间滞后和空间误差溢出效应,区域乡村性会受到周边地区乡村性的显著影响;可达性的提升会使得乡村人口变化率、一产产值比重降低;使农业劳动生产率、农村人均纯收入、农业土地生产率提高,且可达性对农业土地生产率的影响最大,而对农村居民人均纯收入的影响提升最大。     

Spatial and Temporal Changes of Wetlands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from the 1970s to 2010s

Wetlands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) perform a dazzling array of vital ecological functions and are one of the most fragile ecosystems in the world. Timely and accurate information describing wetland resources and their changes over time is becoming more important in their protection and conservation. By using remote sensing data, this study intended to investigate spatial distribution and temporal variations of wetlands on the QTP at different watershed scales from 1970s to 2010s. Results show that wetlands on the QTP have undergone widespread degradation from 1970s to 2010s, with nearly 6.4% of their area being lost. Areas of freshwater marsh, salt marsh and wet meadow declined by 46.6%, 53.9% and 15.6%, respectively, while lake area increased by 14.6%. The most extensive losses of natural wetlands have occurred in endorheic basins, such as in the Kunlun-Altun-Qilian Drainage Basin and Qiangtang Basin, which shrank by 44.5% and 33.1%, respectively. A pronounced increase in temperature tends to facilitate the evaporation process and reduce water availability for wetlands. One-third of the wetlands on the QTP are under threat of being submerged due to lakes rising in recent years. More research is needed to gain insight into the interaction mechanisms behind observed variations and potential impacts from further warming in the future.     

基于卫星通信的海洋气象数据采集系统设计

根据我国海洋综合气象监测装备建设网点不继扩大和加密的现状,依靠现有的卫星通信网络,利用其覆盖范围广、通信稳定、实时在线和维持经费等优势,设计一种基于卫星通信网络的海洋气象数据采集系统.介绍该系统的数据采集结构和功能,智能处理终端的硬件组成,硬件电路芯片选型与使用;介绍系统软件的控制和编制方法,简述在可视化编程语言Microsoft Visual Studi0 6.0集成包环境下开发海洋气象数据采集系统软件的步骤;讨论基于我国北斗卫星通信网络的海洋气象数据采集系统的实际应用情况.     

台风“灿鸿”、“莲花”和“浪卡”共存期间路径、强度及相互作用分析

利用NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,对2015年7月西太平洋洋面上台风"莲花""灿鸿""浪卡"三者共存期间的路径特征、强度变化及相互作用进行了分析。结果表明:1)台风"莲花"与"灿鸿"发生互旋,导致强度较弱的"莲花"路径发生逆时针转向;"灿鸿"与"浪卡"发生明显的相互作用。2)"莲花"的低层水汽通道在互旋过程中被"灿鸿"夺走,后者产生反馈气流补充前者;"浪卡"与"灿鸿"在对流层高层通过水汽"连体"通道进行水汽交换。3)与"莲花"互旋过程中"灿鸿"产生的反馈气流远比相互作用过程中"浪卡"对"灿鸿"的补充气流强,因此相互作用过程结束后"莲花"暖心与涡度继续维持,而"灿鸿"迅速衰弱。4)两个台风相互作用过程的水汽"连体"通道高度不同,台风"莲花"与"灿鸿"相互作用位于对流层低层,而台风"灿鸿"与"浪卡"相互作用发生在对流层高层。     

基于SPEI的1961—2015年淮北地区干旱时空分布特征

基于标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）,利用淮北地区108个气象站逐月气温、降水观测资料,采用线性趋势、M K突变检验等方法,从不同时间尺度（年、季）和干旱程度（轻旱、中旱、重旱和特旱）分析了淮北地区1961—2015年干旱频率和时空变化特征。结果表明：淮北地区1961—2015年总体呈干旱略加强趋势,其中1998—2001年干旱发生最频繁,干旱强度、极端干旱及中等干旱的频次均呈增加趋势。2011年淮北地区干旱程度发生了突变性增强;20世纪90年代起淮北地区夏季经历了先湿后干的转变,2013年是夏季转向干旱化的突变点。秋冬两季是淮北地区发生干旱频率较高的季节。秋季干旱分布广、旱情最为严重,淮北地区北部是秋季干旱的高发区;冬季发生中旱以上干旱的地区分布较广,主要位于淮北地区内的安徽片西部和江苏片中部。春夏季发生高频率干旱的区域相对较小。     

基于小波去噪的灰色Verhulst模型在高铁路基沉降预测的应用

高铁路基需严格控制工后不均匀沉降。鉴于高铁路基沉降预测值精度受观测噪声和预测拟合函数的影响,本文提出了基于小波函数去噪,对去噪数据进行灰色Verhulst模型预测的方法,并阐述了高铁路基沉降预测评价方法。通过工程实例对比分析了去噪灰色Verhulst模型、GM(1,1)模型、双曲线模型在沉降数据处理中的拟合精度和预测精度。结果表明:GM(1,1)模型拟合精度高,预测精度低,不适用于长期预测;双曲线法预测精度最低,预测曲线不包含路基饱和发展过程;小波去噪灰色Verhulst模型符合高铁路基沉降规律,预测精度高,可以广泛用于路基沉降预测。     

The spatial configuration of innovation networks in China

China is rising and gradually developing into an innovation-oriented economy. This transition is fueled by public and private investment in education and by increasing inputs into science and technology. Little attention, however, has been paid to the great differences in China-specific context peculiarity. Hence, the paper assesses Chinese innovation networks using a comprehensive analytical model that includes network configuration, regional environment, government interference and firm attributes. The empirical analysis examines China’s machinery manufacturing industry to test the determinants of the spatial character of Chinese innovation networks based on questionnaire surveys and illustrative cases. Our study finds that Chinese innovation networks are affected not only by innovation resource endowments and firm attributes, but also by government interference and regional culture. Regarding the influence of regional culture, the typical Northern culture with the importance of guanxi plays an important role in the process of searching for partners and makes the innovation network and interpersonal network interwoven. Firms’ ownership and innovation ability are the two essential variables to determine whether any of the regional elements are of significance.     

新疆西准噶尔宏远钼矿地质特征与成矿流体

宏远钼矿为新疆西准噶尔地区近年新发现的斑岩型矿床,发育细脉状和浸染状矿化,矿石矿物以辉钼矿为主,其次为黄铜矿、黄铁矿、磁黄铁矿等,热液蚀变发育。本文通过流体包裹体研究,发现宏远钼矿与大多数斑岩钼矿不同,成矿流体含甲烷,属于Na Cl-H2O-CO2-CH4体系,具有还原性。黑云母电子探针研究表明,花岗岩结晶阶段氧逸度较高。成矿流体中甲烷的C同位素值分布于-31.08‰~-26.44‰之间,表明CH4主要是来自地壳有机碳。成矿早阶段流体均一温度集中于340~360℃,此阶段存在中高温-高盐度流体和低盐度流体的不混溶,流体呈弱氧化性,Mo、Cu等金属矿物倾向于向出溶流体中富集,Mo、Cu矿化沉淀较少,发育白云母化围岩蚀变;成矿主阶段均一温度集中于280~300℃,低盐度,在沸腾作用、大气水加入以及还原性增强条件下,Mo、Cu等金属矿物大量沉淀,形成主矿体,伴随绢云母化蚀变;成矿晚阶段均一温度降低为160~180℃,流体演化为低温低盐度流体,成矿作用减弱,围岩蚀变主要为碳酸盐化。     

Apodized Lyot coronagraph for SPHERE/VLT

SPHERE (which stands for Spectro-Polarimetric High-contrast Exoplanet REsearch) is a second-generation Very Large Telescope (VLT) instrument dedicated to high-contrast direct imaging of exoplanets which first-light is scheduled for 2011. Within this complex instrument one of the central components is the apodized Lyot coronagraph (ALC). The present paper reports on the most interesting aspects and results of the whole numerical study made during the design of the ALC for SPHERE/VLT. The method followed for this study is purely numerical, but with an end-to-end approach which is largely fed by a number of instrumental feedbacks. The results obtained and presented in this paper firstly permit to finalize the optical design before laboratory performance testing of the ALC being built for SPHERE/VLT (see paper II ??Laboratory tests and performances??), but will also hopefully help conceiving future other instruments alike, for example within the very promising extremely large telescope perspective.