Regional-scale surface air temperature and East Asian summer monsoon changes during the last millennium simulated by the FGOALS-gl climate system model

The spatial patterns and regional-scale surface air temperature （SAT） changes during the last millennium,as well as the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） were simulated with a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice （FGOALS-gl） model.The model was driven by both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents.Major features of the simulated past millennial Northern Hemisphere （NH） mean SAT variations,including the Medieval Climate Anomaly （MCA）,the Little Ice Age （LIA） and the 20th Century Warming （20CW）,were generally consistent with the reconstructions.The simulated MCA showed a global cooling pattern with reference to the 1961-90 mean conditions,indicating the 20CW to be unprecedented over the last millennium in the simulation.The LIA was characterized by pronounced coldness over the continental extratropical NH in both the reconstruction and the simulation.The simulated global mean SAT difference between the MCA and LIA was 0.14°C,with enhanced warming over high-latitude NH continental regions.Consistencies between the simulation and the reconstruction on regional scales were lower than those on hemispheric scales.The major features agreed well between the simulated and reconstructed SAT variations over the Chinese domain,despite some inconsistency in details among different reconstructions.The EASM circulation during the MCA was stronger than that during the LIA The corresponding rainfall anomalies exhibited excessive rainfall in the north but deficient rainfall in the south.Both the zonal and meridional thermal contrast were enhanced during the MCA.This temperature anomaly pattern favored a stronger monsoon circulation.     

广域滑坡灾害隐患InSAR显著性形变区深度学习识别技术

全面识别和发现地质灾害隐患,已成为我国地质灾害防治的重大实际需求。目前,基于InSAR技术和深度学习相结合用于广域尺度下地质灾害隐患智能识别应用效果与适用性还需要进一步探索与研究。本文基于Stacking InSAR技术获得地表形变相位数据,利用深度学习检测识别正在变形的滑坡隐患位置与分布,确定显著性形变区边界,探索将上述技术方法推广到一定的广域范围和动态更新数据集。结果显示,测试数据集显著性形变区平均识别精度为0.69,召回率为0.67,F₁ score为0.67,动态更新数据集识别精度为0.85,召回率为0.58,F₁ score为0.68。研究表明,本文方法在广域地灾隐患识别中具有应用可行性,可为地质灾害监测预警提供理论基础与技术支撑。     

Role of Invasive Green Crabs in the Food Web of an Intertidal Sand Flat Determined from Field Observations and a Dynamic Simulation Model

A benthic focussed food web model of intermediate complexity was developed for the intertidal sand flat in the Kejimkujik National Park Seaside, NS, Canada. The goal was to understand the role of invasive green crabs and to investigate potential effects of its removal on the ecosystem. Inputs of biomass, production, consumption and diet composition for each model compartment were obtained through targeted field collections in summers 2008–2010. Simulation (via Ecosim) was used to develop a data-driven baseline steady-state food web of summer conditions and to evaluate effects of ecosystem perturbations that included moderate and extreme removal of crab biomass, in the presence and absence of migrating shorebirds. In the baseline model, green crabs were important benthic predators and also prey for fishes and birds. Ecosystem properties (e.g. size, energetics, organisation) suggested a stable ecosystem. Scenario analyses predicted that crab removal caused only slight perturbations to overall ecosystem properties, but affected some trophic components. Predators that consumed mainly crabs (e.g. gulls) decreased in biomass with crab removal because diet changes could not compensate for lost crab prey. Predators that consumed crabs and also other prey (e.g. plovers) increased in biomass with crab removal because shared benthic prey increased. Migrating shorebirds had a greater impact on the food web than crab removal. Our study suggests that removal of invasive green crabs will likely not drastically change food web biomass and productivity. This study illustrates how field data can be synthesised with food web models for effective management of coastal ecosystems.     

沁水盆地煤层气成藏主控因素与成藏模式分析

沁水盆地石炭-二叠系煤层厚度大、分布稳定、演化程度高,具有良好的煤层气勘探潜力,是目前国内首个成功商业化开发的煤层气盆地。基于研究区已有地质成果,对影响沁水盆地煤层气富集成藏的主控地质因素与成藏模式进行分析,认为构造运动、水动力条件、煤层埋深、煤岩组成及热演化程度是控制沁水盆地煤层气成藏的主要地质因素,高镜质组含量、高热演化程度、弱水动力条件和较大的埋深是煤层气成藏的有利条件,向斜是煤层气富集成藏的有利部位。     

川南地区龙马溪组页岩有机质特征及其对页岩含气量的影响

四川盆地南部地区广泛发育下古生界寒武系、志留系等多套海相页岩层,其中龙马溪组是该区页岩气勘探开发的重点目标层。根据钻井岩心资料,通过有机碳、热解、碳同位素、等温吸附等地球化学实验分析,对川南地区下志留统龙马溪组页岩的有机质特征及其对页岩含气量的影响进行了研究。结果表明,川南地区龙马溪组页岩有机碳含量较高(平均1.53%),有机质类型较好(Ⅰ型和Ⅱ1型),热演化程度高(Ro为1.94%~2.42%),且页岩含气量较高(平均1.85m3/t)。页岩有机质特征是影响页岩含气量的主要因素,有机质丰度、有机质类型和热演化程度三者共同决定了川南地区龙马溪组页岩的含气量。     

中国城市流动人口心理融入的地区差异与影响因素

基于2017年流动人口动态监测调查数据,分析了中国城市流动人口心理融入的区域差异和影响因素。结果表明：① 流动人口心理融入处于较高水平;② 流动人口心理融入区域差异显著。东南沿海及少数西部城市心理融入低于全国平均水平,东北、山东和川渝等地区心理融入高于全国平均水平;③ 流动人口心理融入存在空间集聚效应。除川渝地区外,热点区集中于北方地区,冷点区集中于东南地区。④ 拥有房产、雇主身份和较高受教育水平加快流动人口的心理融入;工资收入的增加不利于心理融入,这与相对剥夺感有关;参与“新农合”对流动人口心理融入具有约束效应;暂住证/居住证及基本公共服务均等化是实现心理融入的重要途径。城市经济快速发展利于流动人口心理融入。跨省流动存在抑制作用,经济发展水平、家庭规模和本地居留时间的作用不显著。     

PM2.5污染对中国人口死亡率的影响——基于346个城市面板数据的实证分析

中国生态文明建设和“健康中国”战略强调切实治理影响人口健康的环境问题,建设健康人居环境。论文基于2000年和2010年中国人口普查资料以及2005年和2015年各省级行政单元1%人口抽样调查等数据资料,论文使用探索性空间分析方法刻画中国城市人口死亡率的时空变化特征,并采用空间回归方法,揭示城市PM_2.5的平均浓度对人口死亡率的影响及其空间溢出效应,以及社会经济因素对PM_2.5—人口死亡率关联的调节效应。结果表明：① 中国城市人口死亡率的空间分布特征呈现明显的异质性,高死亡率地区早期集聚分布于西南地区,2005年后在西南地区、华北地区、华东地区和华中地区呈现逐渐集聚分布态势。低死亡率地区长期集中分布于西北地区、东北地区、长三角地区、珠三角地区和京津两市。② 人口死亡率的分布存在空间关联性,高—高类型地区早期集中分布于西南地区,后期向东扩展;低—低类型地区主要分布于北疆、内蒙古西部和广东省及其周边地区。③ 城市PM_2.5浓度对人口死亡率具有显著的正向影响,并且对邻近地区的人口死亡率具有显著的空间溢出效应。④ 中国城市PM_2.5浓度对人口死亡率的影响存在学历差异和城乡差异,地区高学历人群集聚可降低PM_2.5的健康风险,城镇化发展进程缓慢则会加重PM_2.5的健康风险。研究旨在为防范空气污染暴露导致的健康风险、建设健康人居环境提供科学依据。     

DOGRAFS温度和风场的预报检验

利用新疆2012年11月1日至2013年10月31日的地面2米温度和10米风场资料,对应用改进后的新疆快速更新循环数值预报同化系统(XJ-RUC)的预报效果进行检验。结果表明：XJ-RUC系统对地面2米温度和10米风场的预报均方根误差和偏差随起报时次和预报时效的不同存在差异,在温度预报方面存在“低温偏高,高温偏低”的趋势,夏、秋、冬三季对18UTC预报最好,春季则对00UTC的预报接近实况;10米风场的预报偏差在冬季随时效推进逐渐增大,春、夏、秋三季则在06UTC出现1.0m/s左右的风速偏差极小值。不论是温度还是风速预报,均在冬季效果最差。     

A comparison of the atmospheres of Jupiter and Saturn: deep atmospheric composition, cloud structure, vertical mixing, and origin.

We present our current understanding of the composition, vertical mixing, cloud structure and the origin of the atmospheres of Jupiter and Saturn. Available observations point to a much more vigorous vertical mixing in Saturn's middle-upper atmosphere than in Jupiter's. The nearly cloud-free nature of the Galileo probe entry site, a 5-micron hotspot, is consistent with the depletion of condensable volatiles to great depths, which is attributed to local meteorology. Somewhat similar depletion of water may be present in the 5-micron bright regions of Saturn also. The supersolar abundances of heavy elements, particularly C and S in Jupiter's atmosphere and C in Saturn's, as well as the progressive increase of C from Jupiter to Saturn and beyond, tend to support the icy planetesimal model of the formation of the giant planets and their atmospheres. However, much work remains to be done, especially in the area of laboratory studies, including identification of possible new microwave absorbers, and modelling, in order to resolve the controversy surrounding the large discrepancy between Jupiter's global ammonia abundance, hence the nitrogen elemental ratio, derived from the earth-based microwave observations and that inferred from the analysis of the Galileo probe-orbiter radio attenuation data for the hotspot. We look forward to the observations from Cassini-Huygens spacecraft which are expected to result not only in a rich harvest of information for Saturn, but a better understanding of the formation of the giant planets and their atmospheres when these data are combined with those that exist for Jupiter.     

The hail sensor intercomparison experiment

Abstract

The results of a calibration and intercomparison of hailpads performed at the Workshop is presented, and recommendations are made on future calibration work and on international cooperation for obtaining comparable measurements of hailfall characteristics.