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Predicting human mobility with activity changes

Human mobility patterns can provide valuable information in understanding the impact of human behavioral regularities in urban systems, usually with a specific focus on traffic prediction, public health or urban planning. While existing studies on human movement have placed huge emphasis on spatial location to predict where people go next, the time dimension component is usually being treated with oversimplification or even being neglected. Time dimension is crucial to understanding and detecting human activity changes, which play a negative role in prediction and thus may affect the predictive accuracy. This study aims to predict human movement from a spatio-temporal perspective by taking into account the impact of activity changes. We analyze and define changes of human activity and propose an algorithm to detect such changes, based on which a Markov chain model is used to predict human movement. The Microsoft GeoLife dataset is used to test our methodology, and the data of two selected users is used to evaluate the performance of the prediction. We compare the predictive accuracy (R²) derived from the data with and without implementing the activity change detection. The results show that the R² is improved from 0.295 to 0.762 for the user with obvious activity changes and from 0.965 to 0.971 for the user without obvious activity changes. The method proposed by this study improves the accuracy in analyzing and predicting human movement and lays the foundation for related urban studies.     

面向异构空间区域分片的3RM缝隙处理模型

针对分布式环境下区域分片片段间的各种原始缝隙,提出一种3RM(Three Relational Matrix)缝隙处理模型。该模型采用两阶段流程,第1步划分空间计算单元,对区域分片边界处的要素进行聚类分组;第2步对各个空间计算单元进行缝隙处理。模型研究区域分片边界处缝隙的描述和区分方法,依据要素拓扑关系、属性关系以及精度3种关系建立了3RM缝隙处理矩阵,发现线状和面状要素在分片数据边界处的38种潜在的缝隙,并建立了相应的缝隙处理方法。运用3RM模型对异构的土地利用分片数据进行缝隙处理试验,试验结果表明,本文提出的缝隙处理模型能够有效处理实际分片数据当中的各种缝隙。     

Long-term simulations of the sulfur concentrations over the China, Japan and Korea: A model comparison study

Three comprehensive acid deposition models were used to simulate the sulfur concentrations over northeast Asia over the period covering entire year of 2002, and discussed the aggregated uncertainties and discrepancies of the three models. The participating models are from the countries participating in the project of Longrange Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia (LTP): China, Japan and Korea. The Eulerian Model-3/CMAQ (by China), Regional Air Quality Model (RAQM, by Japan), and Comprehensive Acid Deposition Model (CADM, by Korea) were employed by each country with common emissions data established by the administrative agencies of China, Japan and Korea. The episodic simulation results between 1 to 15, March 2002 are also presented, during which aircraft measurements were carried out over the Yellow sea. The episodic results show both a wide short-term variability in simulations against measurements, and maximum concentration differences of 3～5 times among the three models, requiring that further attention before confidence among the three models can be claimed for short-term simulations. However, the year-long cumulative simulations showed almost the same general features, with lower aggregated uncertainties between the three models, produced by the long term integration over northeast Asia.     

Temperature trends in the skin/surface, mid-troposphere and low stratosphere near Korea from satellite and ground measurements

Various types of satellite (AIRS/AMSU, MODIS) and ground measurements are used to analyze temperature trends in the four vertical layers (skin/surface, mid-troposphere, and low stratosphere) around the Korean Peninsula (123–132°E, 33–44°N) during the period from September 2002 to August 2010. The ground-based observations include 72 Surface Meteorological Stations (SMSs), 6 radiosonde stations (RAOBs), 457 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) over the land, and 5 buoy stations over the ocean. A strong warming (0.052 K yr^?1) at the surface, and a weak warming (0.004～0.010 K yr^?1) in the mid-troposphere and low stratosphere have been found from satellite data, leading to an unstable atmospheric layer. The AIRS/AMSU warming trend over the ocean surface around the Korean Peninsula is about 2.5 times greater than that over the land surface. The ground measurements from both SMS and AWS over the land surface of South Korea also show a warming of 0.043～0.082 K yr^?1, consistent with the satellite observations. The correlation average (r = 0.80) between MODIS skin temperature and ground measurement is significant. The correlations between AMSU and RAOB are very high (0.91～0.95) in the anomaly time series, calculated from the spatial averages of monthly mean temperature values. However, the warming found in the AMSU data is stronger than that from the RAOB at the surface. The opposite feature is present above the mid-troposphere, indicating that there is a systematic difference. Warming phenomena (0.012～0.078 K yr^?1) are observed from all three data sets (SMS, AWS, MODIS), which have been corroborated by the coincident measurements at five ground stations. However, it should also be noted that the observed trends are subject to large uncertainty as the corresponding 95% confidence intervals tend to be larger than the observed signals due to large thermal variability and the relatively short periods of the satellitebased temperature records. The EOF analysis of monthly mean temperature anomalies indicates that the tropospheric temperature variability near Korea is primarily linked to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and secondarily to ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). However, the low stratospheric temperature variability is mainly associated with Southern Oscillation and then additionally with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Uncertainties from the different spatial resolutions between satellite data are discussed in the trends.     

索氏提取-液相色谱法测定土壤中邻苯二甲酸酯类物质

采用索氏提取-固相萃取柱净化分离、高效液相色谱测定土壤中6种邻苯二甲酸酯类物质。利用正交试验对影响加标回收率的3个主要因素(萃取溶剂比例、萃取时间和萃取温度)进行了优化。方法回收率为95.3%～108.0%,相对标准偏差为0.83%～3.53%。并对实际土壤样品进行了测定。     

滨海湿地咸水冲淡驱动机理

海陆界面水体相互作用研究是当代国际海岸带生态水文学的热点.滨海湿地的生态水文环境脆弱,浅层地下水及盐度梯度变化对其生长和发育起着控制作用.咸水冲淡驱动力主要是地下水动力作用、盐度驱动下的水化学运动作用和海洋潮汐作用的叠加效应.通过国内外学者近30年的研究成果分析了滨海湿地咸水冲淡研究程度及进展情况,认为掌握咸水冲淡驱动...     

Temporal and spatial variations in the discharge and dissolved organic carbon of drip waters in Beijing Shihua Cave,China

To detect the causal relationship between cave drip waters and stalagmite laminae, which have been used as a climate change proxy, three drip sites in Beijing Shihua Cave were monitored for discharge and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Drip discharges and DOC were determined at 0 to 14‐day intervals over the period 2004–2006. Drip discharges show two types of response to surface precipitation variations: (1) a rapid response; and (2) a time‐lagged response. Intra‐annual variability in drip discharge is significantly higher than inter‐annual variability. The content of DOC in all drip waters varies inter‐ and intra‐annually and has good correlation with drip water discharge at the rapid response sites. High DOC was observed in July and August in the three years observed. The flushing of soil organic matter is dependent upon the intensity of rain events. The DOC content of drip water increases sharply above a threshold rainfall intensity (>50 mm d^?1) and shows several pulses corresponding with intense rain events (>25 mm d^?1). The DOC content was lower and less variable during the dry period than during the rainy period. The shape of DOC peak also varies from year to year as it is influenced by the intensity and frequency of rainfall. The different drip sites show marked differences in DOC response, which are dominated by hydrological behaviour linked to the recharge of the soil and karst micro‐fissure/porosity network. The results explain why not all stalagmite laminae are consistent with climate changes and suggest that the structure of the rainy season events could be preserved in speleothems. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长输管道抗震研究的新进展

本文主要从以下4个方面:地震对长输管道的危害、长输管道震害的研究方法、管道抗震分析和管道抗震的措施,介绍了近几年长输管道抗震方面的研究进展,指出了今后长输管道的研究方向。