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41.
42.
Using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) implemented at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season was evaluated. Because a finite ensemble size causes sampling error in the full forecast probability distribution function (PDF), ensemble size is closely related to the efficiency of the ensemble prediction system. Prediction capability according to doubling the ensemble size was evaluated by increasing the number of ensembles from 24 to 48 in MOGREPS implemented at the KMA. The initial analysis perturbations generated by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) were integrated for 10 days from 22 May to 23 June 2009. Several statistical verification scores were used to measure the accuracy, reliability, and resolution of ensemble probabilistic forecasts for 24 and 48 ensemble member forecasts. Even though the results were not significant, the accuracy of ensemble prediction improved slightly as ensemble size increased, especially for longer forecast times in the Northern Hemisphere. While increasing the number of ensemble members resulted in a slight improvement in resolution as forecast time increased, inconsistent results were obtained for the scores assessing the reliability of ensemble prediction. The overall performance of ensemble prediction in terms of accuracy, resolution, and reliability increased slightly with ensemble size, especially for longer forecast times. 相似文献
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44.
This is a first foray into the historical start and early years of chemometrics from about 1972 onwards.We have gathered interviews with three originators(Kowalski,Wold and Massart)as well as with aselected group of six other well-known chemometricians who gradually became active in the 1970s(Christie,Clementi,Hopke,Martens,Brown and Deming).The interviews include amongst a host ofsubjective recollections a succinct record of the key historical literature as highlighted by the interviewees'own rankings of‘earliest’and‘best’.A discussion of the most general commonalities in these interviews together with other historicalmaterial is presented in the second part of the paper. 相似文献
45.
Tsanyao?Frank?YangEmail author Gao-Hua?Yeh Ching-Chou?Fu Cheng-Chen?Wang Te-Fang?Lan Hsiao-Fen?Lee Cheng-Hong?Chen Vivek?Walia Quo-Cheng?Sung 《Environmental Geology》2004,46(8):1003-1011
Many mud volcanoes are distributed along the tectonic sutures in southern Taiwan and can be divided into five zones based on their relative positions in different tectonic domains. Most active mud volcanoes are exhaling methane-dominated gases. Nevertheless, some gases show unusual carbon dioxide-dominated and/or nitrogen-excess compositions. This implies that there are multiple sources for the gas compositions of mud volcanoes in Taiwan.For better understanding the total amount of exhalation gases and its flux, the gas flow and compositions were continuously measured in the interval of two minutes at Chung-lun (CL) bubbling mud pool for a few months. The major compositions of gases exhaling from this site were 75~90% of CO2 and 5~12% of CH4. The amount of gases exhaling from the mud pool can be estimated to be about 1.4 ton/year for CH4 and 28 ton/year for CO2, respectively. The preliminary results of exhaling gas flux from the major vents of representative active mud volcanoes, yielded an estimated total CH4 output of the mud volcanoes in Taiwan of ca. 29 ton/year during quiescent period. 相似文献
46.
积云参数化和微物理方案不同组合应用对台风路径模拟效果的影响 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
利用美国国家环境预测中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)和国家大气研究中心(NCAR)联合研发的天气研究和预报模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF),研究了不同积云对流参数化方案和微物理过程方案对0514号台风"彩蝶"路径的影响.结果表明,积云对流参数化方案对台风路径影响较大,KF方案比BM方案能更好地模拟出台风路径;使用KF方案时,选择微物理方案比不选微物理方案对于台风路径有更好的模拟结果,其中,Ferrier、WSM6和Lin非常接近于实况;KF方案较好地模拟出副热带高压(简称副高)的西伸和东退的变化以及台风环流的风场分布和强度. 相似文献
47.
Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation over 220 Years (1777-1997) 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
In this study, long-term (1777–1997) precipitation data for Seoul, Korea, wetness indices from eastern China, and modern observations are used to identify the interdecadal variability in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation over the last 220 years. In the East Asian monsoon region, two long-term timescales of dry–wet transitions for the interdecadal variability and quasi-40-and quasi-60-year timescales are dominant in the 220-year precipitation data of Seoul, as well as in the wetness indices over China.... 相似文献
48.
A Closure Study of Aerosol Hygroscopic Growth Factor during the 2006 Pearl River Delta Campaign 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
LIU Xingang ZHANG Yuanhang WEN Mengting WANG Jingli Jinsang JUNG CHANG Shih-yu HU Min ZENG Limin Young Joon KIM 《大气科学进展》2010,27(4):947-956
Measurements of aerosol physical, chemical and optical parameters
were carried out in Guangzhou, China from 1 July to 31 July 2006 during the
Pearl River Delta Campaign. The dry aerosol scattering coefficient was measured
using an integrating nephelometer and the aerosol scattering coefficient for
wet conditions was determined by subtracting the sum of the aerosol absorption
coefficient, gas scattering coefficient and gas absorption coefficient from the
atmospheric extinction coefficient. Following this, the aerosol hygroscopic
growth factor, f(RH), was calculated as the ratio of wet and dry aerosol
scattering coefficients. Measurements of size-resolved chemical composition,
relative humidity (RH), and published functional relationships between particle
chemical composition and water uptake were likewise used to find the aerosol
scattering coefficients in wet and dry conditions using Mie theory for
internally- or externally-mixed particle species [(NH4)2SO4, NH4NO3, NaCl, POM, EC and residue]. Closure was obtained by comparing
the measured f(RH) values from the nephelometer and other in situ optical
instruments with those computed from chemical composition and thermodynamics.
Results show that the model can represent the observed f(RH) and is
appropriate for use as a component in other higher-order models. 相似文献
49.
ANDERS LINDROTH FREDRIK LAGERGREN MIKA AURELA BRYNHILDUR BJARNADOTTIR TORBEN CHRISTENSEN EBBA DELLWIK ACHIM GRELLE REAS IBROM TORBJÖRN JOHANSSON HARRY LANKREIJER SAMULI LAUNIAINEN TUOMAS LAURILA MEELIS MÖLDER EERO NIKINMAA KIM PILEGAARD BJARNI D. SIGURDSSON TIMO VESALA 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2008,60(2):129-142
50.
Statistical relationship between two types of El Niño events and climate variation over the Korean Peninsula 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Jong-Seong Kug Min-Seop Ahn Mi-Kyung Sung Sang-Wook Yeh Hong-Sik Min Young-Ho Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2010,46(4):467-474
Recently, a new type of El Niño (Warm-Pool El Niño) is more often observed than the conventional El Niño (Cold-Tongue El Niño); each has a distinctive spatial pattern. The two types of El Niño have different teleconnections; therefore their impacts on a specific region can be considerably different. In this study, we focus on statistical relationship between climate variation in Korea and the two types of El Niño. When the two types of El Niño are not separately considered, the statistical relation between climate variables in Korea and the El Niño events is weak in general. When the two types of El Niño are separately considered, however, each type exhibits significant relationship with climate variation in Korea. Therefore, consideration of two types of El Niño separately can potentially improve climate prediction over the Korean Peninsula. 相似文献