影响韶关的热带气旋及其暴雨预报

统计1965年以来影响韶关的热带气旋发现，韶关出现暴雨不仅与热带气旋的路径、强度有关，而且与大气层结稳定度或冷空气的相互作用密切相关。由此结合实况、应用数值预报产品来制作热带气旋暴雨24小时预报。     

小清河滞洪区洪灾监测信息系统的研究与建立

应用机载合成孔径雷达监测洪水势态,离不开洪灾监测信息系统的支持,两者有机的结合,能充分发挥遥感和地理信息系统在防洪减灾应用中的优越性。本文以小清河滞洪区为实验区,从系统目标、数据层及其来源、数据编码、分析模型等几个方面,介绍了该区洪灾监测信息系统的建立情况。     

基坑开挖与土钉支护的数值模拟

运用FLAC程序对深基坑土钉墙支护设计进行了数值模拟,分析了边壁土体的变形大小和土钉应力分布,并与现场实测结果对比,得出基坑顶的水平位移值与实测值相差不大,并对差值进行了分析。在应力方面,改善了土体内应力集中的现象,从而制约了土体的变形。剪应力在支护结构和坡角处有集中现象,在坡角处较为严重。     

博斯腾湖向塔里木河输水风险分析方法

为了拯救塔里木河下游生态环境，塔里木河流域管理局根据博斯腾湖从1999年到2003年处于丰水期，湖泊处于高水位的有利时机，从2000年5月到2003年6月实施5次向塔里木河下游生态应急输水，结束塔里木河下游300多km河道近30年的断流历史。现在的问题是“博斯腾湖向塔里木河生态输水能否持续?”，“保证可持续输水的风险有多大?”本文以解决此问题为实例，介绍一般水库调节计算和水库特征水位确定方法；主要探讨水库(湖泊)向下游输水可持续性风险分析问题，提出的方法称为“水库输水可持续性风险计算时历试算法”，简称为“试算法”(T＆E方法)；并将此方法应用于实例中，计算博斯腾湖向塔里木河下游输水的可持续风险。     

GIS数据辅助下的线状目标自动提取

首先介绍了遥感影像中线状目标骨架自动提取的意义和研究现状，然后结合老的GIS数据，提出了一种算法来实现遥感影像中线状目标骨架的自动提取，算法主要包括影像预处理、GIS数据与影像的配准、骨架跟踪、编组连接与数据简化等步骤。最后又利用遥感影像和相应的GIS数据进行了实验，实验证明了算法的可行性和有效性。     

黄沙坪铅锌银多金属矿床硫铅同位素地球化学特征

对黄沙坪矿床硫化物期矿物进行矿物包裹体温度和成分测定，并进行热力学计算，获得毒砂－闪锌矿阶段成矿温度为300°，logfCO2为0.4～1.4；logfCH4为－2.05～2.07logfH2O为1.67～1.93；logfO2为－32.87～－38.39。对矽卡岩期和硫化物期硫化物进行硫同位素测定，获得矽卡岩期黄铁矿的δ34S为4.1‰～4.6‰； 硫化物期硫化物的δ34S为6.2‰～17.5‰，并具有δ34SSp大于δ34SGn和两组δ34SΣs值。对长石、方铅矿和闪锌矿进行了铅同位素测定，获得长石的206Pb/204Pb比值为18.429～19.305，207Pb/204Pb比值为15.598～15.905；208Pb/204Pb比值为38.647～39.235。方铅矿和闪锌矿的206Pb/204Pb比值为18.00～18.772，207Pb/204Pb比值为15.580～16.045，208Pb/204Pb比值为38.490～41.560，并呈线性排列，显示矿床硫铅是两种以上的物质来源。     

中条山铜矿床同位素地球化学研究

笔者对中条山绛县群和中条群主要铜矿床进行铅、硫、碳、氢、氧同位素测定，获得：横岭关型矿床的206Pb/204Pb比值为17.746~19.270, 207Pb/204Pb比值为15.500~15.684，208 Pb/204Pb比值为37.236~39.931,硫化物的δ34S值为-8.1‰~+36.9‰, δ18OH2O值为+1.7‰~+5.7‰, δD值为-58. 4‰~-111.3‰；铜矿峪型矿床的206Pb/204Pb比值为18.040~46.243 207Pb/204Pb比值为15.565~18.765,208Pb/204Pb比值为37.682~69.623,硫化物的产δ34S值为-7.2‰～+10.2‰, δ18OH2O为+6.3‰～+10.5‰, δD值为-52.8‰~-123.3‰;落家河型矿床的206Pb/204Pb比值为17.591~19.270, 207Pb/204Pb比值为15.494~15.684,208Pb/204Pb比值为37.263~39.931,硫化物的δ34S值为-1‰~-21.9‰, δ18OH2O值为+3.6‰~+6.4‰, δD值为-35.8‰~-70‰;胡-蓖型矿床206 Pb/204 Pb比值为18.097~249.50, 207Pb/204Pb比值为15.578~44.230,208Pb/204Pb比值为35.379~51.480,硫化物的δ34S值为3.4‰~23.2‰, δ18OH2O值为+7.5‰~+12.5‰, δD值为-36.3‰~-72.2‰。     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using hybrid integration approaches of fractal dimension with index of entropy and support vector machine

The loess area in the northern part of Baoji City, Shaanxi Province, China is a region with frequently landslide occurrences. The main aim of this study is to quantitatively predict the extent of landslides using the index of entropy model(IOE), the support vector machine model(SVM) and two hybrid models namely the F-IOE model and the F-SVM model constructed by fractal dimension. First, a total of 179 landslides were identified and landslide inventory map was produced, with 70%(125) of the landslides which was optimized by 10-fold crossvalidation being used for training purpose and the remaining 30%(54) of landslides being used for validation purpose. Subsequently, slope angle, slope aspect, altitude, rainfall, plan curvature, distance to rivers, land use, distance to roads, distance to faults, normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), lithology, and profile curvature were considered as landslide conditioning factors and all factor layers were resampled to a uniform resolution. Then the information gain ratio of each conditioning factors was evaluated. Next, the fractal dimension for each conditioning factors was calculated and the training dataset was used to build four landslide susceptibility models. In the end, the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves and three statistical indexes involving positive predictive rate(PPR), negative predictive rate(NPR) and accuracy(ACC) were applied to validate and compare the performance of these four models. The results showed that the F-SVM model had the highest PPR, NPR, ACC and AUC values for training and validation datasets, respectively, followed by the F-IOE model.Finally, it is concluded that the F-SVM model performed best in all models, the hybrid model built by fractal dimension has advantages than original model, and can provide reference for local landslide prevention and decision making.     

基于剪切波速的深层砂土地震液化研究

阐述了剪切波速法判别饱和砂土液化的原理，结合武汉地区某工程实例，对场地内埋深超越“规范法”适用范围的砂层进行液化判别，确定场地的临界液化深度。通过与室内动三轴试验的对比得出，2种方法的液化判别结果及确定的临界液化深度均吻合较好，验证了以剪切波速为指标的液化评估方法的可行性。     

边带分离型超导SIS接收机本振耦合噪声研究

超导SIS (Superconductor-Insulator-Superconductor)接收机因极低的接收机噪声温度成为毫米波和亚毫米波段射电天文观测的首选.本振系统耦合噪声也是接收机噪声的一部分,在多年的天文观测中,发现本振耦合噪声无法完全忽略,对天文观测的灵敏度有一定影响.采用两个不同种类的信号发生器作为本振系统初级信号源,测试了超导SIS接收机的噪声温度,发现信号发生器输出的基底噪声能够耦合到接收机内部,从而增加接收机噪声强度.分析研究了本振系统热噪声和信号发生器基底噪声对接收机噪声的影响.通过在信号发生器输入端加入窄带滤波器滤除其基底噪声,消除了信号发生器基底噪声引入的接收机噪声,降低了接收机的整体噪声,提高了望远镜的灵敏度.