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Pourkerman Majid Marriner Nick Hamzeh Mohammad-Ali Lahijani Hamid Morhange Christophe Amjadi Sedigheh Vacchi Matteo Maghsoudi Mehran Shah-Hosseini Majid Afarin Mohammad 《Natural Hazards》2022,112(2):1823-1849
Natural Hazards - The western Makran subduction zone is capable of producing considerable tsunami run-up heights that penetrate up to 5 km inland. In this study, we show how climate change... 相似文献
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Federico Cervi Matteo Berti Lisa Borgatti Francesco Ronchetti Federica Manenti Alessandro Corsini 《Landslides》2010,7(4):433-444
Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km2 in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area. 相似文献
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Morphometric Analysis on the Size, Shape and Areal Distribution of Glacial Cirques in the Maritime Alps (Western French-Italian Alps) 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Paolo Roberto Federici Matteo Spagnolo 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2004,86(3):235-248
The morphometry of 432 glacial cirques in the Maritime Alps (Western French‐Italian Alps), studied over several years of fieldwork, was analysed with the use of a geographical information system. Some of the parameters automatically evaluated from digital elevation models required an objective and relatively new definition. In particular, cirque length was measured along a line that, from the threshold midpoint, splits the cirque into two equivalent surfaces; cirque width was automatically drawn as the longest line inscribed in the cirque and perpendicular to the length line. Significant correlations were found among the different factors and parameters analysed. In particular, cirque shape analysis showed that cirques develop allometrically in the three dimensions, i.e. more in length and width than in altitudinal range. Nevertheless cirques of the Maritime Alps have a regular, almost circular shape (mean L/W value = 1.07). The correlations among length, width and area are all very high (r2= 0.8–0.9). In terms of size, cirques show a wide range in area from 0.06 to 5.2 km2 with a mean value of 0.4 km2. The largest cirques are found on SSW‐facing slopes and at high elevations. Small cirques can be found at all altitudes but all those at high elevation are part of compound cirques at the main head valleys. Most cirques (37%) are characterized by a northern aspect; NE and SW are also frequent directions. 相似文献
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S. W. Allen T. Di Matteo A. C. Fabian 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,311(3):493-506
We report the detection of hard X-ray emission components in the spectra of six nearby, giant elliptical galaxies observed with the ASCA satellite. The systems studied, which exhibit strong dynamical evidence for supermassive black holes in their nuclei, are M87, NGC 1399 and NGC 4696 (the dominant galaxies of the Virgo, Fornax and Centaurus clusters, respectively) and NGC 4472, 4636 and 4649 (three further giant ellipticals in the Virgo cluster). The ASCA data for all six sources provide clear evidence for hard emission components, which can be parametrized by power-law models with photon indices in the range Γ=0.6–1.5 (mean value 1.2) and intrinsic 1–10 keV luminosities of 2×1040 –2×1042 erg s−1 . Our results imply the identification of a new class of accreting X-ray source, with X-ray spectra significantly harder than those of binary X-ray sources, Seyfert nuclei or low-luminosity active galactic nuclei, and bolometric luminosities relatively dominated by their X-ray emission. We discuss various possible origins for the hard X-ray emission and argue that it is most likely to be due to accretion on to the central supermassive black holes, via low radiative efficiency accretion flows coupled with strong outflows. In the case of M87, our detected power-law flux is in good agreement with a previously reported measurement from ROSAT High Resolution Imager observations, which were able to resolve the jet from the nuclear X-ray emission components. We confirm previous results showing that the use of multiphase models in the analysis of the ASCA data leads to determinations of approximately solar emission-weighted metallicities for the X-ray gas in the galaxies. We also present results on the individual element abundances in NGC 4636. 相似文献
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Matteo Willeit Andrey Ganopolski Daniela Dalmonech Aideen M. Foley Georg Feulner 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(7-8):1699-1713
Climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration are intimately coupled in the Earth system: CO2 influences climate through the greenhouse effect, but climate also affects CO2 through its impact on the amount of carbon stored on land and in the ocean. The change in atmospheric CO2 as a response to a change in temperature ( $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ ) is a useful measure to quantify the feedback between the carbon cycle and climate. Using an ensemble of experiments with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we show a pronounced time-scale dependence of $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ . A maximum is found on centennial scales with $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ values for the model ensemble in the range 5–12 ppm °C?1, while lower values are found on shorter and longer time scales. These results are consistent with estimates derived from past observations. Up to centennial scales, the land carbon response to climate dominates the CO2 signal in the atmosphere, while on longer time scales the ocean becomes important and eventually dominates on multi-millennial scales. In addition to the time-scale dependence, modeled $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ show a distinct dependence on the initial state of the system. In particular, on centennial time-scales, high $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ values are correlated with high initial land carbon content. A similar relation holds also for the CMIP5 models, although for $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ computed from a very different experimental setup. The emergence of common patterns like this could prove to usefully constrain the climate–carbon cycle feedback. 相似文献