Quantifying the failure probability of a canal levee

Polders in the Netherlands are protected from flooding by flood defence systems along main water bodies such as rivers, lakes or the sea. Inside polders, canal levees provide protection from smaller water bodies. Canal levees are mainly earthen levees along drainage canals that drain excess water from polders to the main water bodies. The water levels in these canals are regulated. During the last decades, probabilistic approaches have been developed to quantify the probability of failure of flood defences along the main water bodies. This paper proposes several extensions to this method to quantify the probability of failure of canal levees. These extensions include a method to account for (i) water-level regulation in canals, (ii) the effect of maintenance dredging on the geohydrological response of the canal levee and (iii) survival of loads in the past. The results of a case study demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of quantifying the probability of failure of canal levees and is useful for exploring the relative benefit of risk mitigating measures for canal levees.     

Explosive erosion during the Phoenix landing exposes subsurface water on Mars

While steady thruster jets caused only modest surface erosion during previous spacecraft landings on the Moon and Mars, the pulsed jets from the Phoenix spacecraft led to extensive alteration of its landing site on the martian arctic, exposed a large fraction of the subsurface water ice under the lander, and led to the discovery of evidence for liquid saline water on Mars. Here we report the discovery of the ‘explosive erosion’ process that led to this extensive erosion. We show that the impingement of supersonic pulsed jets fluidizes porous soils and forms cyclic shock waves which propagate through the soil and produce erosion rates more than an order of magnitude larger than that of other jet-induced processes. The understanding of ‘explosive erosion’ allows the calculation of bulk physical properties of the soils altered by it, provides insight into a new behavior of granular flow at extreme conditions and explains the rapid alteration of the Phoenix landing site’s ground morphology at the northern arctic plains of Mars.     

Eelgrass beds and bare substrata – sparid and mugilid composition in contrasting littoral estuarine habitats

Seagrass beds serve as nursery grounds for many fish species and often play an important role in the juvenile stages of economically and recreationally important fishes. The eelgrass Zostera capensis is the dominant submerged macrophyte in permanently open South African estuaries and occupies large intertidal and subtidal areas within the Knysna system. The primary objective of this study was to compare the occurrence of sparids and mugilids in eelgrass and nearby bare sediment areas using sampling with seine nets. The hypothesis that was tested is that mugilids are dominant in unvegetated areas of the Knysna Estuary littoral whereas sparids predominate within eelgrass beds located in the same zone. The results indicate that the family Mugilidae is better represented at unvegetated sites when compared to members of the family Sparidae, with the exception of Lithognathus lithognathus, but that the dominant three sparids and dominant two mugilids were most abundant in sparse eelgrass beds that included both bare and vegetated areas within this habitat type. The main fish species responsible for the separation of fish assemblages associated with unvegetated sites versus those associated with vegetated areas were Rhabdosargus holubi, Liza dumerili, Liza richardsonii, Lithognathus lithognathus, Sarpa salpa and Diplodus capensis, with R. holubi, S. salpa and D. capensis being mainly attracted to eelgrass habitats and L. dumerili, L. richardsonii and L. lithognathus having a stronger affinity for bare areas. This finding confirms a previous estuarine study in the nearby Swartvlei lake littoral, which found that sparids dominated areas where aquatic macrophytes were extensive and that mugilids became more prevalent at those same sites when the macrophytes underwent complete senescence. The length-frequency distributions of some sparid and mugilid species differed considerably between eelgrass and bare sediment areas, whereas those of other species showed little or no difference between these two habitat types.     

Migration from the city to the countryside in Hungary and Poland

After the changes of 1989, urban-to-rural migration in Poland and Hungary remained stable compared to rural-to-urban migration. This was connected to a growing importance of suburbanisation around major Hungarian and Polish cities. Suburban areas around these cities are attracting increasing numbers of migrants from the major cities. Pollution and higher crime rates, as well as rising living costs and increasing uncertainties make many people to decide to leave the city for the surrounding countryside. Not only upper middle-class people move to the suburbs, but also lower status people, for whom life in the big city became too difficult. Long-distance migration from the cities to the rural areas is declining. Economic problems together with low employment opportunities prevent people from making such a move. Though the overall level of urban-to-rural migration did not change too much, this article shows the rapidly increasing importance of suburbanisation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Changes in the saltation flux following a step‐change in macro‐roughness

The effect of a step change in macro‐roughness on the saltation process under sediment supply limited conditions was examined in the atmospheric boundary layer. For an array of roughness elements of roughness density λ = 0.045 (λ = total element frontal area/total surface area of the array) the horizontal saltation flux was reduced by 90% (±7%) at a distance of ≈150 roughness element heights into the array. This matches the value predicted using an empirical design model and provides confidence that it can be effectively used to engineer roughness arrays to meet sand flux reduction targets. Measurements of the saltation flux characteristics in the vertical dimension, including: saltation layer decay (e‐folding) height and particle size, revealed that with increasing distance into the array, the rate of mass flux change with increasing height decreased notably, and (geometric) mean particle diameter decreased. The distribution of the saltation mass flux in the vertical remains exponential in form with increasing distance into the roughness array, and the e‐folding height increases as well as increasing at a greater rate as particle diameter diminishes. The increase in e‐folding height suggests the height of saltating particles is increasing along with their mean speed. This apparent increase in mean speed is likely due to the preferential removal, or sequestration, of the slower moving particles across the size spectrum, as they travel through the roughness array. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bivariate simulation using copula and its application to probabilistic pile settlement analysis

This paper aims to propose a procedure for modeling the joint probability distribution of bivariate uncertain data with a nonlinear dependence structure. First, the concept of dependence measures is briefly introduced. Then, both the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion are adopted for identifying the best‐fit copula. Thereafter, simulation of copulas and bivariate distributions based on Monte Carlo simulation are presented. Practical application for serviceability limit state reliability analysis of piles is conducted. Finally, four load–test datasets of load–displacement curves of piles are used to illustrate the proposed procedure. The results indicate that the proposed copula‐based procedure can model and simulate the bivariate probability distribution of two curve‐fitting parameters underlying the load–displacement models of piles in a more general way. The simulated load–displacement curves using the proposed procedure are found to be in good agreement with the measured results. In most cases, the Gaussian copula, often adopted out of expedience without proper validation, is not the best‐fit copula for modeling the dependence structure underlying two curve‐fitting parameters. The conditional probability density functions obtained from the Gaussian copula differ considerably from those obtained from the best‐fit copula. The probabilities of failure associated with the Gaussian copula are significantly smaller than the reference solutions, which are very unconservative for pile safety assessment. If the strong negative correlation between the two curve‐fitting parameters is ignored, the scatter in the measured load–displacement curves cannot be simulated properly, and the probabilities of failure will be highly overestimated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

江西铜坑嶂钼矿和红山铜矿含矿斑岩锆石U-Pb定年及其地质意义

江西铜坑嶂钼矿和红山铜矿是在武夷山成矿带中最近发现的两个斑岩型矿床。本文利用LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年方法对铜坑嶂花岗斑岩和红山含矿花岗斑岩分别进行了年代学研究,获得铜坑嶂岩体中花岗斑岩的锆石年龄为138±1Ma,代表斑岩体侵位的年龄;红山矿区含矿斑岩的锆石年龄,分作两期,分别为99Ma和49Ma,两期不同的年龄可能代表了两期热事件。研究表明,铜坑嶂钼矿的成岩成矿时代均发生在白垩纪,其岩浆作用与成矿作用基本吻合。综合前人资料,认为铜坑嶂钼矿区的斑岩和红山铜矿区的斑岩可能分别形成于大陆弧后伸展带和岩石圈伸展环境。     

Optical constants of Titan’s stratospheric aerosols in the 70–1500 cm−1 spectral range constrained by Cassini/CIRS observations

We utilized aerosol extinction coefficient inferred from Cassini/CIRS spectra in the far and mid infrared region to derive the extinction cross-section near an altitude of 190 km at 15°S (from far-IR) and 20°S (from mid-IR). By comparing the extinction cross section that are derived from observations with theoretical calculations for a fractal aggregate of 3000 monomers, each having a radius of 0.05 μm, and a fractal dimension of 2, we are able to constrain the refractive index of Titan’s aerosol between 70 and 1500 cm^?1 (143 and 6.7 μm). As the real and imaginary parts of the refractive index are related by the Kramers–Kronig equation, we apply an iterative process to determine the optical constants in the thermal infrared. The resulting spectral dependence of the imaginary index displays several spectral signatures, some of which are also seen for some Titan’s aerosol analogues (tholins) produced in laboratory experiments. We find that Titan’s aerosols are less absorbent than tholins in the thermal infrared. The most prominent emission bands observed in the mid-infrared are due to CH bending vibrations in methyl and methylene groups. It appears that Titan’s aerosols predominantly display vibrations implying carbon and hydrogen atoms and perhaps marginally nitrogen. In the mid infrared, all the aerosol spectral signatures are observed at three additional latitudes (56°S, 5°N and 30°N) and in the 193–274 km altitude range, which implies that Titan’s aerosols exhibit the same chemical composition in all investigated latitude and altitude regions.     

Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use

Over the last 10 years a large set of global environmental assessment studies has been published that include scenario projections. Comparison of these studies shows that there is actually a limited set of scenario families that form the basis of many scenarios used in different environmental assessments. Mapping these scenario families allow a simpler comparison across the different assessments. The fact that many assessments can be positioned within these families gives some confidence of their relevance. It is also noticeable that several recent assessments have been focusing on more focussed policy-scenarios as variant to a single baseline. This is partly a response to a different stage in the policy-making process. While there are clear advantages of both categories of scenarios (explorative scenarios and baseline/policy variants), it might be important to test the robustness of scenario outcomes of the policy-scenario approach against the different storyline scenario-families identified in this paper.     

Diversity analysis of protistan microplankton in Sagami Bay by 18S rRNA gene clone analysis using newly designed PCR primers

The diversity of protistan microplankton in Sagami Bay was revealed by 18S rRNA gene clone analysis using newly designed PCR primers. PCR amplification consisted of a first reaction targeting the V3–V5 region of the 18S rRNA gene, followed by a nested reaction targeting the V3–V4 region. In total, 629 clones consisting of 108 phylotypes were affiliated with a variety of protistan groups including dinoflagellates, diatoms, prymnesiomonada, chlorophyta, ciliophora, cercozoa, and heterokonta. The dinoflagellate group was detected most frequently and shared approximately 74?% of the total clones. Within this group, approximately half of the clones belonged to the parasitic dinoflagellate Syndiniales group I, which was first reported from Sagami Bay. The genera Woloszynskia, Gonyaulax, Neoceratium, and Karlodinium have not been reported from this bay until now. The second most frequent group was diatoms, which shared approximately 22?% of the total clones. Within this group, highly diverse Thalassiosira phylotypes were detected, and they shared approximately 70?% of the diatom clones. Therefore, highly diverse protists including some candidate groups were successfully detected, indicating that the designed primers and PCR protocol will be useful for molecular diversity analyses of protistan microplankton communities in aquatic environments.