Data assimilation in a system with two scales—combining two initialization techniques

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used to assimilate data onto a non-linear chaotic model, coupling two kinds of variables. The first kind of variables of the system is characterized as large amplitude, slow, large scale, distributed in eight equally spaced locations around a circle. The second kind of variables are small amplitude, fast, and short scale, distributed in 256 equally spaced locations. Synthetic observations are obtained from the model and the observational error is proportional to their respective amplitudes. The performance of the EnKF is affected by differences in the spatial correlation scales of the variables being assimilated. This method allows the simultaneous assimilation of all the variables. The ensemble filter also allows assimilating only the large-scale variables, letting the small-scale variables to freely evolve. Assimilation of the large-scale variables together with a few small-scale variables significantly degrades the filter. These results are explained by the spurious correlations that arise from the sampled ensemble covariances. An alternative approach is to combine two different initialization techniques for the slow and fast variables. Here, the fast variables are initialized by restraining the evolution of the ensemble members, using a Newtonian relaxation toward the observed fast variables. Then, the usual ensemble analysis is used to assimilate the large-scale observations.     

An analysis of regional climate model performance over the tropical Americas. Part I: simulating seasonal variability of precipitation associated with ENSO forcing

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) constitute a major source of predictability in the tropics. We evaluate the ability of a regional climate model (the Rossby Centre Atmospheric Model; RCA) to downscale SST and large-scale atmospheric anomalies associated with ENSO. RCA is configured over the tropical east Pacific and tropical Americas and runs for the period 1979–2005, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) lateral and surface boundary conditions. We study the ability of RCA to represent regional patterns of precipitation, with respect to both the climatology and interannual variability associated with ENSO. The latter is achieved by grouping the simulations into El Niño and La Niña composites and studying the delayed response of precipitation to SST forcing in four regions of Central and South America.
In this paper, we concentrate on seasonal mean timescales. We find that RCA accurately simulates the main features of the precipitation climatology over the four regions and also reproduces the majority of the documented regional responses to ENSO forcing. Furthermore, the model captures the variability in precipitation anomalies between different ENSO events. The model exhibits a wet bias over the northern Amazon and slightly overestimates the magnitude of ENSO anomalies over Central America.     

The maximum likelihood ensemble filter performances in chaotic systems

The performance of the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF), is investigated in the context of generic systems featuring the essential ingredients of unstable dynamics and on a spatially extended system displaying chaos. The main objective is to clarify the response of the filter to different regimes of motion and highlighting features which may help its optimization in more realistic applications. It is found that, in view of the minimization procedure involved in the filter analysis update, the algorithm provides accurate estimates even in the presence of prominent non-linearities. Most importantly, the filter ensemble size can be designed in connection to the properties of the system attractor (Kaplan–Yorke dimension), thus facilitating the filter setup and limiting the computational cost by using an optimal ensemble. As a corollary, this latter finding indicates that the ensemble perturbations in the MLEF reflect the intrinsic system error dynamics rather than a sampling of realizations of an unknown error covariance.     

In situ measurements of optical properties at Tinfou (Morocco) during the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment SAMUM 2006

In situ measurements of optical and physical properties of mineral dust were performed at the outskirts of the Saharan Desert in the framework of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment part 1 (SAMUM-1). Goals of the field study were to achieve information on the extent and composition of the dust particle size distribution and the optical properties of dust at the ground. For the particle number size distribution, measured with a DMPS/APS, a size dependent dynamic shape factor was considered. The mean refractive index of the particles in this field study is  1.53–4.1 × 10⁻³ i   at 537 nm wavelength and  1.53–3.1 × 10⁻³ i   at 637 nm wavelength derived from measurements of scattering and absorption coefficients, as well as the particle size distribution. Whereas the real part of the refractive index is rather constant, the imaginary part varies depending on the mineral dust concentrations. For high dust concentration the single scattering albedo is primarily influenced by iron oxide and is  0.96 ± 0.02  and  0.98 ± 0.01  at 537 nm and 637 nm wavelength, respectively. During low dust concentration the single scattering albedo is more influenced by a soot-type absorber and is  0.89 ± 0.02  and  0.93 ± 0.01  for the same wavelengths.     

Spring initiation and autumn cessation of boreal coniferous forest CO2 exchange assessed by meteorological and biological variables

We studied the commencement and finishing of the growing season using different air temperature indices, the surface albedo, the chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) and the carbon dioxide (CO₂) tropospheric concentration, together with eddy covariance measurements of CO₂ flux. We used CO₂ flux data from four boreal coniferous forest sites covering a wide latitudinal range, and CO₂ concentration measurements from Sammaltunturi in Pallas. The CO₂ gas exchange was taken as the primary determinant for the growing season to which other methods were compared.
Indices based on the cumulative temperature sum and the variation in daily mean temperature were successfully used for approximating the start and cessation of the growing season. The beginning of snow melt was a successful predictor of the onset of the growing season. The chlorophyll fluorescence parameter Fv/Fm and the CO₂ concentration were good indicators of both the commencement and cessation of the growing season. By a derivative estimation method for the CO₂ concentration, we were also able to capture the larger-scale spring recovery. The trends of the CO₂ concentration and temperature indices at Pallas/Sammaltunturi were studied over an 11-yr time period, and a significant tendency towards an earlier spring was observed. This tendency was not observed at the other sites.     

Estimating the Asian radon flux density and its latitudinal gradient in winter using ground-based radon observations at Sado Island

Terrestrial radon-222 flux density for the Asian continent, integrated over distances of 4500 km, is estimated in two 20° latitudinal bands centred on 48.8°N and 63.2°N. The evaluation is based on three years of wintertime radon measurements at Sado Island, Japan, together with meteorological and trajectory information. A selection of 18% of observations are suitable for evaluation of an analytical expression for the continental surface flux. Various meteorological assumptions are discussed; it is found that there is a substantial effect of increased complexity of the formulation on the flux estimates obtained. The distribution of spatially integrated radon flux over the Asian landmass is reported for the first time. Expressed as geometric means and 1σ-ranges, estimated fluxes are 14.1 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹ (1σ-range: 18 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹) and 8.4 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹ (1σ-range: 10 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹) for the lower and higher latitude bands. These results constitute an annual minimum in flux densities for these regions, and are higher than previously reported. The existence of a latitudinal gradient in the continental radon source function is confirmed; the present estimate for Asia (−0.39 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹ per degree of latitude) is in agreement with the northern hemisphere terrestrial radon flux gradient proposed previously.     

A national landfill methane budget for Sweden based on field measurements, and an evaluation of IPCC models

Seven Swedish landfills were investigated from 2001 to 2003. On each landfill, a measure of the total methane production was calculated from data on: (1) methane emissions (leakage); (2) methane oxidation and (3) from gas recovery.
Methane emissions were determined via a tracer gas (N₂O) release-based remote sensing method. N₂O and CH₄ were measured with an Fourier Transform infrared detector at a distance of more than 1 km downwind from the landfills. Methane oxidation in the landfill covers was measured with the stable carbon isotope method. The efficiency in gas recovery systems proved to be highly variable, but on an average, 51% of the produced landfill gas was captured.
A first-order decay model, based on four fractions (waste from households and parks, sludges and industrial waste), showed that the use of a degradable organic carbon fraction (DOCf) value of 0.54, in accordance with the default value for DOCf of 0.50 in the latest IPCC model, gave an emission estimate similar to the official national reports.     

Solar dimming and brightening over Thessaloniki, Greece, and Beijing, China

This work presents evidence that ultraviolet (UV)-A solar irradiances show increasing trends at Thessaloniki, Greece, where air quality has been improving because of air pollution abatement strategies. In contrast, over Beijing, China, where air quality measures were taken later, solar brightening was delayed. It is shown that until the early 1990s, UV-A irradiances over Thessaloniki show a downward trend of –0.5% yr⁻¹, which reverses sign and becomes positive in the last decade (+0.8% yr⁻¹). This brightening is related to a decreasing trend in local aerosol amounts. Both the negative rate of change (dimming) and the positive rate of change (brightening) are amplified in the UV-A solar irradiances, compared with the total solar irradiance, by a factor of 2.6. Satellite derived short-wave radiation over Beijing showed negative changes of –0.4% (1984–1991) and –0.1% yr⁻¹ during 1994–2006. The negative trend in solar radiation continued even during 2000–2006. Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) increased by +1.0% yr⁻¹ during 2000–2006, in agreement with in situ measurements of increasing AOD. Therefore, a statistically significant change from dimming to brightening in Beijing could not be seen in the last decade, but it is expected to occur in the near future.     

Role of a simplified hydrological cycle and clouds in regulating the climate–biota system of Daisyworld

The role of a simplified hydrological cycle and a physical representation of clouds is investigated in the Daisyworld model, subject to constant and variable solar forcing and varying cloud albedo and height. Under constant forcing, properties of the cloudy hydrologic cycle control the long-term system dynamics to non-oscillatory, oscillatory, abiotic or biotic states. In case of oscillatory solutions, their amplitude and periodicity are controlled by the net cooling or warming effects from clouds. Two conditions are considered under variable forcing—active or neutral—depending on the existence or not of biota–environment feedbacks. Temperature, cloudiness and hydrological variables are self-regulated in the active condition, whereas non-regulated in the neutral condition. Self-regulation is quantified through two measurements (luminosity range and total life), both of which can be larger in our model than in several other variants of Daisyworld, depending on cloud characteristics. The hydrological cycle and clouds can make the planet more habitable for life, independent of the capacity of the system for biological adaptation. Two hypotheses are put forward: (1) beneficial effects for life emerge from biota–clouds interactions, enhancing the global amount of life and extending the life span; and (ii) the existence of a maximum self-regulation capacity principle.