Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.     

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.     

RTG与GPS相对定位联合作业的可行性分析

近年来,RTG(Real Time Gipsy)技术的发展比较迅速,并且在一些行业中得到应用。本文阐述了GPS相对定位与RTG定位原理,并就GPS相对定位与RTG进行误差对比分析。根据行业标准与精度,对GPS相对定位与RTG在控制测量中联合作业的可行性进行探讨,提出联合作业的概念,主要为测绘人员布设控制网时提供参考,从而提高了工作效率,降低了项目成本。     

应用电子探针-扫描电镜研究陕西华阳川铀稀有多金属矿床稀土矿物特征

陕西华阳川铀稀有多金属矿床伴生大量的稀土资源,其矿石类型独特、组分复杂,系统的稀土矿物学工作将揭示矿石主要稀土矿物类型、稀土元素赋存状态,进而对矿床开发中稀土元素综合利用及选冶技术提供重要参考。本文在岩相学基础上,利用电子探针、扫描电镜对陕西华阳川铀稀有多金属矿床矿石中的稀土独立矿物与含稀土矿物进行系统研究,在矿石中发现了褐帘石（La₂O₃ 6.49%～7.61%,Ce₂O₃ 11.50%～14.00%）、磷铈镧矿（La₂O₃ 16.30%～21.21%,Ce₂O₃ 32.06%～39.18%）、磷钇矿（La₂O₃ 2.29%～3.58%,Ce₂O₃ 1.89%～2.37%,Y₂O₃ 39.77%～42.80%）、氟碳铈镧矿（La₂O₃ 12.86%～14.20%,Ce₂O₃ 36.67%～39.90%）、褐钇铌矿（La₂O₃ 1.19%～2.11%,Ce₂O₃ 1.29%～2.30%,Y₂O₃ 22.67%～25.88%）等5种稀土独立矿物;同时发现磷灰石、贝塔石、榍石等矿物中稀土元素含量较高。研究表明,该矿床稀土元素以独立矿物（褐帘石、磷铈镧矿、磷钇矿、氟碳铈镧矿、褐钇铌矿）与类质同象（磷灰石、贝塔石、榍石等矿物）两种形式存在,稀土资源以La、Ce轻稀土元素为主,并富含重稀土元素Y。     

川西北中二叠统栖霞组沉积特征及古地貌响应

川西北中二叠统栖霞组发育厚层白云岩储层,成为近年来四川盆地油气勘探开发的重点领域,但栖霞组有利相带分布和储层发育的主控因素并不明朗,制约了该地区油气勘探进展。根据野外露头、岩心、薄片、测井和地震资料,结合区域地质演化,对川西北栖霞组沉积特征、沉积格局以及古地貌进行研究发现:川西北栖霞组主要为碳酸盐岩台地沉积,自西北向东南方向依次发育盆地—斜坡相、台地边缘相和开阔台地相,并发育台缘滩或台内滩等若干亚相类型。其中栖一期沉积水体较深,为弱镶边碳酸盐岩台地形成期,台缘滩厚度薄,展布范围有限;栖二期为栖霞组主要成滩期,滩体厚度大,展布范围广,具典型镶边碳酸盐岩台地特征。栖霞组白云岩主要为台地边缘高能滩相沉积背景,栖霞组沉积期,研究区具西北高、东南低,西南高、东北低的古地貌格局,其不仅控制着台地边缘高能滩相的沉积分布,并进一步为该区白云岩储层发育奠定了基础,白云岩具有西北向东南、西南向东北逐渐减薄的特点。结合沉积演化和古地貌分析结果,认为古地貌为栖霞组白云岩发育的主要控制因素,西北及西南方向等古地貌高地为研究区栖霞组白云岩储层发育的有利沉积相带。     

最近十多年来冰冻圈加速萎缩——IPCC第六次评估报告之冰冻圈变化解读

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2021年8月发布了第六次评估报告第一工作组报告《气候变化2021：自然科学基础》。该报告基于最新的观测和模拟研究,评估了冰冻圈变化的现状,并采用CMIP6模式对未来变化进行了预估。报告明确指出,近十多年来冰冻圈呈现加速萎缩状态：北极海冰面积显著减小、厚度减薄、冰量迅速减少;格陵兰冰盖、南极冰盖和全球山地冰川物质亏损加剧;多年冻土温度升高、活动层增厚,海底多年冻土范围减少;北半球积雪范围也在明显变小,但积雪量有较大空间差异。冰冻圈的快速萎缩加速海平面的上升。未来人类活动对冰冻圈萎缩的影响将愈加显著,从而导致北极海冰面积继续减少乃至消失,冰盖和冰川物质将持续亏损,多年冻土和积雪的范围继续缩减。报告也提出,目前冰冻圈研究仍存在观测资料稀缺、模型对各影响因素的敏感性参数和过程描述亟需提升、对吸光性杂质的变化机制认知不足等问题,从而影响了对冰冻圈变化预估的准确性,未来需要重点关注。     

HCW-90型全液压自动猫道钻杆支架起升同步性分析

本文针对HCW-90型全液压自动猫道的钻杆支架起升过程进行研究,采用多体动力学与液压控制系统联合仿真方法,分析了钻杆支架起升液压缸动作的同步性对钻杆从支架末端运动至平台档销限位处的动态过程的影响。重点讨论了起升液压缸同步性对管体空间位姿、动力学参数、管体运动至终了处与档销碰撞过程。进一步分析了管体受到限位后趋于稳定的动态过程和定位精度。此外,综合考虑管体运移的快速性、平稳性和定位准确性,对起升液压缸的液压控制系统的输入信号进行了合理调整,并在满足工作性能的前提下,提出了采用分流阀构建低成本液压控制系统的方案。     

广西大瑶山东南缘侏罗纪埃达克质花岗岩的特征、成因及构造意义

对钦杭结合带西南段大瑶山东南缘的中晚侏罗世埃达克质花岗岩（165~153 Ma）进行了岩石学、地球化学研究,并探讨了埃达克质和TTG岩类的特征属性。岩石SiO₂含量63.76%~72.13%,总体具高Al₂O₃（Al₂O₃≥15%）、低MgO （<3%）,亏损重稀土元素（HREE）、正Eu异常或弱的负Eu异常,低Y （≤18×10^-6）和Yb （≤1.9×10^-6）,高Sr （>300×10^-6）和Sr/Y值（>20）等埃达克岩独特的地球化学特征。结合区域构造演化分析认为,该侏罗纪埃达克质花岗岩形成于陆内伸展构造背景,为大陆板内加厚（隆起区）的下地壳底部岩石部分熔融的产物,属大陆板内环境I型花岗岩。具有类似于低镁安山岩/闪长岩系列（LMA）和镁安山岩/闪长岩系列（MA）两种高压型TTG亚类的属性,为古俯冲增生带下地壳弧型岩石熔融的继承性特征,与中生代古太平洋俯冲板片熔融过程无关,属非俯冲成因的埃达克/TTG岩类。其空间上与大瑶山东南缘早古生代俯冲增生带高度重合,且与早古生代TTG侵入岩组合紧密相邻,提示它们可能源自于早古生代洋壳俯冲带或大陆边缘弧下地壳玄武质岩石的部分熔融,因而具有洋俯冲成因的特征属性。     

新特提斯洋晚白垩世演化特点:来自泽当共国日二长花岗岩年代学、地球化学及Sr-Nd同位素证据

为加深对西藏泽当地区新特提斯洋演化的认识,对西藏泽当蛇绿混杂岩带内的共国日二长花岗岩进行了岩石学、岩石地球化学、同位素及年代学等研究,研究显示:共国日二长花岗岩岩体规模小、岩性稳定,LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄为(90.40±0.68)Ma,属晚白垩世;岩石地球化学具高硅、富铝、富钾、低钛和准铝质钙碱性花岗岩特征;轻稀土富集、重稀土亏损,具明显的负Eu异常,微量元素表现为相对富集Rb、K、Ba、Th、U等大离子亲石元素,显著亏损Nb、P、Ti等高场强元素;(⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i=0.705 708~0.706 284,(¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd)_i=0.512 689~0.512 716,ε_Nd(t)=2.00~2.51。以上特征表明,位于泽当蛇绿混杂岩带内的共国日二长花岗岩属于I型花岗岩,由正常岛弧岩浆形成,应为晚白垩世新特提斯洋向北俯冲形成的岛弧环境下俯冲带上部地壳部分熔融的产物,其不属于泽当蛇绿岩的组成部分,表明在90 Ma前泽当洋内弧已经消失。     

Reservoir Characteristics and Genetic Mechanisms of the Mesozoic Granite Buried Hills in the Deep‐water of the Qiongdongnan Basin,Northern South China Sea

Due to its structure,rock and mineral composition,fluid and other factors,the granite Buried Hill Reservoir is highly heterogeneous with a complex longitudinal structure and a reservoir space made up of a combination of dissolution pores and fractures.This paper is based on current understanding of tectonic evolution in the northern part of the South China Sea,in conjunction with the seismic phase characteristics.It is determined that the meshed fault system was formed by three stages of movement-tectonic compression orogeny during the Indochinese epoch,strike-slip compression-tension during the Yanshanian Period,early fracture extension activation during the Himalayan-which controlled the distribution of the Buried Hill Reservoir.Drilling revealed two types of buried hills,faulted anticline and fault horst,their longitudinal structure and the reservoir space type being significantly different.The mineral composition,reservoir space and diagenetic characteristics of the reservoir rocks and minerals were analyzed by lithogeochemistry,micro section and logging etc.,it thus being determined that the Mesozoic rocks of the Songnan Low Uplift in the Qiongdongnan Basin are mainly composed of syenogranite,granodiorite,monzogranite,which is the material basis for the development of the Buried Hill Reservoir.The content of felsic and other brittle minerals is more than 70%,making it easy for it to be transformed into fractures.At the same time,the weathering resistance of granodiorite and monzogranite is weaker than that of syenogranite,which is easily weathered and destroyed,forming a thick sand gravel weathering zone.With increasing depth of burial,weathering and dissolution gradually weaken,the deep acidic fluid improving the reservoir property of internal fractures and expanding the vertical distribution range of the reservoirs.The research results lay a foundation for the exploration of Buried Hill in the deep-water area of the Qiongdongnan Basin.