Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity |
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| Authors: | ZHONG Quan-ji LI Jian-ping LI Shu-wen WANG Yuan DING Rui-qiang and ZHANG Li-feng |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 China; 2. Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES)/ Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/ Academy of the Future Oceans, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong 266100 China; 3. Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Pilot Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong 266100 China; 4. Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 China; 5. College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211101 China; 6. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 China |
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| Abstract: | The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity. |
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| Keywords: | predictability nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent signal-to-noise ratios tropical cyclone intensity seasurface temperature |
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