利用SVM与ARIMA组合模型进行大坝变形预测

由于大坝位移时间序列数据受各种复杂因素的影响,具有非平稳和非线性等特征,因此,利用传统、单一的时间序列预测模型较难准确地描述大坝位移变形的复杂规律。综合考虑大坝位移时间序列非线性和线性特征,本文提出了一种SVM和ARIMA相结合的时间序列预测模型。将大坝变形的时间序列分为非线性部分和线性部分。针对非线性部分,利用SVM进行滚动预测,并与NAR动态神经网络进行对比,试验表明SVM处理非线性问题具有相对的优势;针对线性部分,通过ARIMA模型对其进行单步滚动预测,综合两项预测结果得到组合模型的预测值。结合大坝实测资料对组合模型进行检验,试验结果表明,SVM-ARIMA组合模型的预测精度高,能更好地描述大坝位移的变化趋势,具有一定的实用价值。     

基于InSAR技术的城市地面沉降信息统计分析研究

随着InSAR技术的日益成熟和不断地应用于工程,对利用InSAR技术获取地面沉降信息的统计分析需求也在不断增加.本文以哈尔滨市和鹤岗市为例,基于城市主城区InSAR沉降监测成果,结合地理国情监测数据,从地面沉降整体分布、沉降发展趋势、沉降影响等方面,研究城市地面沉降情况及沉降影响的统计分析的内容和关键技术,并形成基于InSAR技术的城市地面沉降评估体系.     

一种RANSAC多模型拟合的隧道点云滤波算法

针对目前大多数点云滤波方法的不足,提出基于随机抽样一致(random sample consensus,RANSAC)多模型拟合的隧道点云滤波算法.与单模型拟合滤波方法不同,该算法在每个隧道横断面上使用多个圆模型进行分段拟合,多个模型具有不同的模型参数,将远离所拟合的各圆模型的点作为噪声点进行剔除.实验结果表明,相较于单模型拟合滤波方法,所提出的多模型法具有更低的一类误差和相近的二类误差,对隧道三维激光点云的滤波效果更好.     

南京市降水化学特征及其来源研究

为了解南京江北地区降水化学特征,分析了2011年3—6月共25个降水日的109个降水样品中的主要水溶性离子,并利用后向轨迹模式探讨了降水气团来源.结果表明:1)南京地区3—6月降水主要受南、北2种气团影响,北方气团降水的主要离子浓度高于南方气团降水.2)海盐示踪法和相关性分析显示,降水中NO₃^-和SO₄^2-主要来自燃煤、工业排放和汽车尾气;Ca²⁺主要来自地壳源;Cl^-主要来自海洋;海洋源和陆源对Mg²⁺和K⁺都有贡献,Mg²⁺的陆源贡献大于海洋源贡献,K⁺受海洋源的影响程度要低于Mg²⁺.3)南、北气团初期降水的各离子浓度高于总降水的各离子浓度,且初期降水的主要离子的富集系数高于总降水.这说明在降水初始阶段,雨水对南京大气中污染物(气态污染物和颗粒物)的云下冲刷去除作用较强,降水的离子浓度最高,局地源对降水离子的贡献较明显.     

STATISTICAL AND COMPOSITE ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE CORES AND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TBB WITHIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION AND ITS INTENSITY

Based on the data(including radius of maximum winds) from the JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center),the tropical cyclones(TCs) radii of the outermost closed isobar, TCs best tracks from Shanghai Typhoon Institute and the Black Body Temperature(TBB) of the Japanese geostationary meteorological satellite M1 TR IR1, and combining13 tropical cyclones which landed in China again after visiting the island of Taiwan during the period from 2001 to2010, we analyzed the relationship between the number of convective cores within TC circulation and the intensity of TC with the method of convective-stratiform technique(CST) and statistical and composite analysis. The results are shown as follows:(1) The number of convective cores in the entire TC circulation is well corresponding with the outer spiral rainbands and the density of convective cores in the inner core area increases(decreases) generally with increasing(decreasing) TC intensity. At the same time, the number of convective cores within the outer spiral rainbands is more than that within the inner core and does not change much with the TC intensity. However, the density of convective cores within the outer spiral rainbands is lower than that within the inner core.(2) The relationship described above is sensitive to landing location to some extent but not sensitive to the structure of TC.(3) The average value of TBB in the inner core area increases(decreases) generally with increasing(decreasing) of TC intensity, which is also sensitive to landing situation to some extent. At the same time, the average value of TBB within the outer spiral rainbands is close to that within the entire TC circulation, and both of them are more than that within the inner core. However, they do not reflect TC intensity change significantly.(4) The results of statistical composite based on convective cores and TBB are complementary with each other, so a combination of both can reflect the relationship between TC rainbands and TC intensity much better.     

地球深部包体与成矿关系——一个有意义的研究方向

结合在实际工作中的体会,提出和讨论了“地球深部包体与成矿关系”这一有意义的研究方向及其先导性科学问题。地球深部包体中镍、金、钼、钨等成矿元素的含量是不均一的,镍和金在地幔岩包体中含量最高,钼在玄武岩及镁铁质麻粒岩包体中最高,而钨在长英质麻粒岩和花岗岩类包体中含量最高。这些反映岩石圈和软流圈以及岩石圈的不同层次中镍、金、钼、钨等成矿元素的含量不均一,分别提供了地壳中镍、金、钼、钨矿床的初始物质来源。这一认识可能给镍、金、钼、钨等金属矿床和矿床集中区的战略预测提供一些新思路。     

海底冷泉在旁扫声纳图像上的识别

海底冷泉是指来自海底沉积地层(或更深)的气体以喷涌或渗漏的方式注入海洋中的一种海洋地质现象,它普遍发育于主动大陆边缘和被动大陆边缘。海底冷泉研究在天然气水合物、全球气候变化、极端生物群落等研究方面都具有重要意义。利用实测的海上资料,通过分析水体声学剖面上的冷泉气柱、旁扫声纳图像上的亮斑异常以及柱状沉积物样品中天然气水合物等的对应关系,指出旁扫声纳图像上出现的亮斑异常是海底冷泉喷逸的指示。海底冷泉逸出的大量气泡遮蔽海底,从而形成一个强波阻抗界面,这个强波阻抗界面在旁扫声纳图像上形成亮斑异常。通过亮斑异常,可以判定海底冷泉的存在。旁扫声纳可以成为海底冷泉探测的有力方法。     

石油钻杆接头水基淬火的研究

对石油钻杆接头水淬热处理技术进行了研究分析。介绍了水基淬火和油基淬火后石油钻杆接头的硬度、硬度均匀性的对比试验;不同条件下的淬火液对钻杆接头冷却速度的影响。研究表明,水基淬火方式能更好地提高钻杆接头马氏体化程度,从而提高淬火质量。     

Geothermal occurrence analysis of Dongying Formation in Tanggu area of Tianjin

Based on introducing geological structure of Tanggu area, the authors analyzed the sedimentary environment of Paleogene Dongying Formation, and further analyzed its geothermal occurrence. The studied area spans two grade IV tectonic units which are Beitang depression and Banqiao depression. The studied area is mainly located in the Tanggu nose-like structure which is the secondary structure of Beitang depression. Its existence affects the sedimentary distribution of the part strata of Paleogene. The depositions of Dongying Ⅲ （ SQEd3 ） and Dongying Ⅱ （ SQEd2 ） are mainly delta front facies and lake sand bars which are propitious to the geothermal fluid enrichment. The favorable enrichment region of geothermal fluid is located in south Hetou- Tanggu. Most of Dongying Ⅰ （ SQEd1 ） changes into swamp plain deposition, only the northeast part of this area is the distributary riverway facies with developed sand layers. There is the favorable enrichment region of geothermal fluid. The hydraulic connection is weak among the geothermal reservoirs of Dongying Formation and its overlying Guantao and Minghuazhen formations. The underlying Shahejie Formation geothermal reservoir pro- vides a steady stream of fluid supply and ground pressure protection for Dongying Formation geothermal reservoir.     

莺歌海盆地前新生代基底特征

结合盆缘露头、盆地基底钻井及重磁震资料,综合研究莺歌海盆地前新生代基底特征。基于盆地西北缘Song Da带18个剖面点地层序列、166件岩石样品密度和2800套磁化率测量结果,建立密度--磁化率交汇图版,约束盆内地震剖面和重磁异常解释,通过海陆结合的方法填制出盆地基底地质图。其前新生界由前震旦系、寒武系-上三叠统下部、上三叠统上部-白垩系三个构造层构成,它们沿红河断裂呈北西向分布,中间老,为前震旦纪中-高级变质岩;两侧新,向西为中生代沉积岩,向东为古生代浅变质岩、灰岩。