Deconvolving the δO seawater component from subseasonal coral δO and Sr/Ca at Rarotonga in the southwestern subtropical Pacific for the period 1726 to 1997

To reconstruct oceanographic variations in the subtropical South Pacific, 271-year long subseasonal time series of Sr/Ca and δ¹⁸O were generated from a coral growing at Rarotonga (21.5°S, 159.5°W). In this case, coral Sr/Ca appears to be an excellent proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) and coral δ¹⁸O is a function of both SST and seawater δ¹⁸O composition (δ¹⁸O_sw). Here, we focus on extracting the δ¹⁸O_sw signal from these proxy records. A method is presented assuming that coral Sr/Ca is solely a function of SST and that coral δ¹⁸O is a function of both SST and δ¹⁸O_sw. This method separates the effects of δ¹⁸O_sw from SST by breaking the instantaneous changes of coral δ¹⁸O into separate contributions by instantaneous SST and δ¹⁸O_sw changes, respectively. The results show that on average δ¹⁸O_sw at Rarotonga explains ∼39% of the variance in δ¹⁸O and that variations in SST explains the remaining ∼61% of δ¹⁸O variance. Reconstructed δ¹⁸O_sw shows systematic increases in summer months (December-February) consistent with the regional pattern of variations in precipitation and evaporation. The δ¹⁸O_sw also shows a positive linear correlation with satellite-derived estimated salinity for the period 1980 to 1997 (r = 0.72). This linear correlation between reconstructed δ¹⁸O_sw and salinity makes it possible to use the reconstructed δ¹⁸O_sw to estimate the past interannual and decadal salinity changes in this region. Comparisons of coral δ¹⁸O and δ¹⁸O_sw at Rarotonga with the Pacific decadal oscillation index suggest that the decadal and interdecadal salinity and SST variability at Rarotonga appears to be related to basin-scale decadal variability in the Pacific.     

河西走廊东部强雷暴天气分析与预报

根据1961～2000年武威站雷暴天气实况资料分析了河西走廊东部40年强雷暴天气发生的气候规律，并研究了河西走廊东部强雷暴天气发生的4种环流背景及4种主要天气条件，归纳总结出其短期预报着眼点，为雷暴天气预报业务系统的研制奠定了基础。     

泰山顶部近地层风的方差与谱分析

风在速度与方向上的不稳定性可引发结构振动并可导致损坏。山顶风较少受局地作用影响, 流场较稳定，作为典型风况对山顶风湍流脉动情形进行的观测和分析，对于研究建筑结构风载振动情形有着重要意义。在不同风况下对泰山气象站近地层风的风速和风向进行了同时、逐秒测记，所得样本经检验符合正态分布。计算表明，风向样本方差显著大于风速样本方差。绘制了各风速、风向样本自、互谱密度曲线图。谱图显示诸样本具有红噪声序列特征，不同样本自、互谱密度曲线具有相近形状，而以风速自谱曲线吻合程度最好，谱密度曲线在周期为4秒及2秒处有峰值。此后的研究应结合记录仪器的改进增加采样频率，对周期为2秒以下谱曲线作进一步分析。     

天气形势调整过程中连续暴雨的个例分析

本文在分析了天气尺度背景及形成连续暴雨的物理量条件的基础上，找出连续三天暴雨的成因：由于大范围形势调整过程中同一低压系统在不同的环流形势配置下造成的，是天气形势调整过程中产生的，而不是通常概念上由于大范围环流形势稳定、有利降雨的系统得以持续影响造成的。     

中国西南低空急流活动的统计分析

参照北美研究低空急流气候特征的方法，对中国低空急流进行重新定义，实现了低空急流定义的统一，并在此基础上对低空急流活动特征进行了分析。结果表明：中国低空急流主要有两个活动中心，分别位于江南地区和东北地区；江南地区的低空急流活动主要有两个活跃期，分别为1-4月和6-7月；东北地区的低空急流活动主要表现为2月、8-9月两个活动较弱期；江南地区的低空急流主要在6-8月表现出独立的急流轴，东北地区则主要在8月份；汛期低空急流活动与长江流域区域性暴雨有伴随性，多雨年急流次数很多，少雨年则很少；长江中下游及两湖盆地附近急流活动有明显的日变化。     

Southeastern U.S. Vegetation Response to ENSO Events (1989–1999)

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is considered one of the most powerful forces driving anomalous global weather patterns. Large-scale seasonal precipitation and temperature changes influenced by ENSO have been examined in many areas of the world. The southeastern United States is one of the regions affected by ENSO events. In this study, remote sensing detection of vegetation response to ENSO phases is demonstrated with one-kilometer biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data (1989–1999) derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR). The impacts of three ENSO phases, cold, warm and neutral, on vegetation were analyzed with a focus on two vegetation cover types, two seasons and two geographic regions within the southeastern U.S. Significant ENSO effects on vegetation were found in cropland and forest vegetation cover types based on image and statistical analysis of the NDVI data. The results indicate that vegetation condition was optimal during the ENSO neutral phase for both agricultural and natural vegetation.     

中国三峡地区汛期降水量的正态性研究

为了分析三峡地区降水量序列的正态性和谱结构,对降水量的常见各种变换进行试验性研究。试验包括单站降水量、降水量的平方根、立方根和Γ分布概率值等非线性变换,以及级别变换。研究区域多站平均降水量、区域降水量的主分量、区域降水量的非线性变换后的主分量和区域降水量的级别变换后的主分量等序列。研究发现三峡地区单站降水量的各种变换不改变序列原始谱结构,仅影响概率分布的偏度和峰度,使其较好地遵从正态分布,其中以Γ分布的变换以及级别变换在分布的偏度上为最好。 区域降水量的各种变换的综合指数(区域平均值和主分量)正态性及谱结构分析表明,除区域平均值变换后不改变原单站序列的谱结构外,主分量的综合指数能改变原单站序列的谱结构,同时也影响概率分布的偏度和峰度,使其能较好地遵从正态分布。其中以降水量的立方根和Γ分布概率变换以及级别变换,在分布的偏度上有较好的效果。     

云南地区近期强震重复发生时地震学的动态演化特征

通过地强震重复发生的滇西北、滇东北、滇西南澜沧江以西３个地震区多项地震活动性和地震波参数的动态追踪，发现在同一地震区重复发生的强震，震前的异常形态可以具有相惟性，反向变化的特征。如滇东北地区中小地震在１９８５年禄劝强震前的活跃和１９９５年武定强震前的平静；澜沧地震叶波速比月均值在１９８８年澜沧－－耿马大震前的低值异常和１９９５年孟连西中缅边境大震前的高值异常。本同时以ｂ值和波速比为例，讨论了强震     

室内土工模型试验的新方法——桩基渗水力土工模型试验

本文通过桩基渗水力工模型试验实例，介绍了一种新的室内土工模型试验方法－渗水力土工模型试验。它利用水在土体中的渗流来提供土工模型试验中必须的体积力，因而克服了常规模型试验和离心模型试验中一些缺陷。该方法在桩基研究及工程实际中具有良好的应用前景。     

现代区域开发的矿产资源需求生命周期研究及意义

矿产资源是社会经济发展的重要物质基础，受社会经济和科学技术发展的限制，各类矿产资源的需求存在着从初始，增长，停滞和衰落的周期性变化以及明显的空间分嘏差异。