Estimated supply of RED credits 2011–2035

Previous attempts to estimate the supply of greenhouse gas emission reductions from reduced emissions from deforestation (RED) have generally failed to incorporate policy developments, country-specific abilities and political willingness to supply offsets for developed countries’ emissions. To address this, we estimate policy-appropriate projections of creditable emission reductions from RED. Two global forest carbon models are used to examine major assumptions affecting the generation of credits. The results show that the estimated feasible supply of RED credits is significantly below the biophysical mitigation potential from deforestation. A literature review identified an annual RED emission reduction potential between 1.6 and 4.3 Gt CO₂e. Feasible RED supply estimates applying the OSIRIS model were 1.74 Gt CO₂e annually between 2011 and 2020, with a cumulative supply of 17.4 Gt CO₂e under an ‘own-efforts’ scenario. Estimates from the Forest Carbon Index were very low at $5/t CO₂e with 8 million tonne CO₂e annually, rising to 1.8 Gt CO₂e at $20/t CO₂e. Cumulative abatement between 2011 and 2020 was 9 billion Gt CO₂e ($20/t CO₂e). These volumes were lower, sometimes dramatically, at prices of $5/t CO₂e suggesting a non-linear supply of credits in relation to price at a low payment level. For policy makers, the results suggest that inclusion of RED in a climate framework increases abatement potential, although significant constraints are imposed by political and technical issues.     

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Education and Outreach (E/PO) Program: Changing Perceptions One Program at a Time

We outline the context and overall philosophy for the combined Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) program, present a brief overview of all SDO E/PO programs along with more detailed highlights of a few key programs, followed by a review of our results to date, conclude a summary of the successes, failures, and lessons learned, which future missions can use as a guide, while incorporating their own content to enhance the public’s knowledge and appreciation of science and technology as well as its benefit to society.     

STREAM MORPHOLOGIC IMPACT OF AND RECOVERY FROM MAJOR FLOODING IN NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA

Major floods cause channel changes ranging from complete cross-sectional change to small fluctuations in pool area. We used stream cross-section data on 30 heavily grazed rangeland streams in north-central Nevada to assess changes over a climatically variable 14-year period. There was an insufficient range in ungulate damage to consider differences caused by grazing. Flooding with return intervals exceeding 50 years caused major change on approximately 25% of the surveyed streams regardless of initial stream type. One-quarter of the changed streams continued to experience cross-sectional change during a six- to eight-year period of low-to-normal flows. On these streams, upper banks either receded to expose a new, lower floodplain or flattened to a less vertical slope. On streams that did not change type, flooding substantially reduced pool area, which did not recover during the succeeding period, presumably because energy was insufficient to form pools. High flows flushed fine sediment from the streams that did not change type, but fines returned in six years of low flows. Stream classification did not usefully predict major changes, channel evolution after the change, or differences in the effect of flooding on pools among streams that did not change.     

Searching for neutrinos from WIMP annihilations in the Galactic stellar disc

Weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) are a viable candidate for the relic abundance of dark matter (DM) produced in the early universe. So far, WIMPs have eluded direct detection through interactions with baryonic matter. Neutrino emission from accumulated WIMP annihilations in the solar core has been proposed as a signature of DM, but has not yet been detected. These null results may be due to small-scale DM density fluctuations in the halo with the density of our local region being lower than the average  (∼0.3 GeV cm⁻³)  . However, the accumulated neutrino signal from WIMP annihilations in the Galactic stellar disc would be insensitive to local density variations. Inside the disc, DM can be captured by stars causing an enhanced annihilation rate and therefore a potentially higher neutrino flux than what would be observed from elsewhere in the halo. We estimate a neutrino flux from the WIMP annihilations in the stellar disc to be enhanced by more than an order of magnitude compared to the neutrino fluxes from the halo. We offer a conservative estimate for this enhanced flux, based on the WIMP–nucleon cross-sections obtained from direct-detection experiments by assuming a density of  ∼0.3 GeV cm⁻³  for the local DM. We also compare the detectability of these fluxes with a signal of diffuse high-energy neutrinos produced in the Milky Way by the interaction of cosmic rays with the interstellar medium. These comparative signals should be observable by large neutrino detectors.     

A finite element sea ice model of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is a complex area formed by narrow straits and islands in the Arctic. It is an important pathway for freshwater and sea-ice transport from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The narrow straits are often crudely represented in coupled sea-ice–ocean models, leading to a misrepresentation of transports through these straits. Unstructured meshes are an alternative in modelling this complex region, since they are able to capture the complex geometry of the CAA. This provides higher resolution in the flow field and allows for more accurate transports (but not necessarily better modelling). In this paper, a finite element sea-ice model of the Arctic region is described and used to estimate the sea-ice fluxes through the CAA. The model is a dynamic–thermodynamic sea-ice model with elastic–viscous–plastic rheology and is coupled to a slab ocean, where the temperature and salinity are restored to climatology, with no velocities and surface elevation. The model is spun-up from 1973 to 1978 with NCEP/NARR reanalysis data. From 1979 to 2007, the model is forced by NCEP/DoE reanalysis data. The large scale sea-ice characteristics show good agreement with observations. The total sea-ice area agrees very well with observations and shows a sensitivity to the Arctic oscillation (AO). For 1998–2002, we find estimates for the sea-ice volume and area fluxes through Admunsen Gulf, McClure Strait and the Queen Elizabeth Islands that compare well with observation and are slightly better than estimates from other models. For Nares Strait, we find that the fluxes are much lower than observed, due to the missing effect of topographic steering on the atmospheric forcing fields. The 1979–2007 fluxes show large seasonal and interannual variability driven primarily by variability in the ice velocity field and a sensitivity to the AO and other large-scale atmospheric variability, which suggests that accurate atmospheric forcing might be crucial to modelling the CAA.     

Fluvial channels on Titan: Initial Cassini RADAR observations

Cassini radar images show a variety of fluvial channels on Titan's surface, often several hundreds of kilometers in length. Some (predominantly at low- and mid-latitude) are radar-bright and braided, resembling desert washes where fines have been removed by energetic surface liquid flow, presumably from methane rainstorms. Others (predominantly at high latitudes) are radar-dark and meandering and drain into or connect polar lakes, suggesting slower-moving flow depositing fine-grained sediments. A third type, seen predominantly at mid- and high latitudes, have radar brightness patterns indicating topographic incision, with valley widths of up to 3 km across and depth of several hundred meters. These observations show that fluvial activity occurs at least occasionally at all latitudes, not only at the Huygens landing site, and can produce channels much larger in scale than those observed there. The areas in which channels are prominent so far amount to about 1% of Titan's surface, of which only a fraction is actually occupied by channels. The corresponding global sediment volume inferred is not enough to account for the extensive sand seas. Channels observed so far have a consistent large-scale flow pattern, tending to flow polewards and eastwards.     

Multivariate Correlation in the Framework of Support and Spatial Scales of Variability

This paper extends the concept of dispersion variance to the multivariate case where the change of support affects dispersion covariances and the matrix of correlation between attributes. This leads to a concept of correlation between attributes as a function of sample supports and size of the physical domain. Decomposition of dispersion covariances into the spatial scales of variability provides a tool for computing the contribution to variability from different spatial components. Coregionalized dispersion covariances and elementary dispersion variances are defined for each multivariate spatial scale of variability. This allows the computation of dispersion covariances and correlation between attributes without integrating the cross-variograms. A correlation matrix, for a second-order stationary field with point support and infinite domain, converges toward constant correlation coefficients. The regionalized correlation coefficients for each spatial scale of variability, and the cases where the intrinsic correlation hypothesis holds are found independent of support and size of domain. This approach opens possibilities for multivariate geostatistics with data taken at different support. Two numerical examples from soil textural data demonstrate the change of correlation matrix with the size of the domain. In general, correlation between attributes is extended from the classic Pearson correlation coefficient based on independent samples to a most general approach for dependent samples taken with different support in a limited domain.     

Analysis of nonlinear associations between prenatal methylmercury exposure from fish consumption and neurodevelopmental outcomes in the Seychelles Main Cohort at 17 years

The Seychelles Child Development Study has been examining the relationship between prenatal methylmercury (MeHg) exposure from consuming fish during pregnancy and child development. This study re-analyzes seven outcomes in the 17 year Main Cohort data to determine if there are nonlinear or non-homogeneous (subgroup) associations that were not identified in the linear analysis. We adopted two statistical approaches. First, we carried out an additive nonlinear analysis assuming homogeneous prenatal MeHg-outcome relationships to explore overall associations. Second, we applied the regression tree to the Woodcock–Johnson Calculation subtest (it was significantly associated in earlier analyses) and identified 4 clusters based on covariates. Then we used additive models to assess the prenatal MeHg association in each of the four clusters for all seven outcomes. This approach assumes nonlinear associations in each cluster and non-homogeneous associations between clusters. The additive nonlinear analysis yielded prenatal MeHg curves similar to the linear analysis. For the regression tree analysis, the curves relating prenatal MeHg to outcomes between the 4 clusters differed and some crossed at higher prenatal MeHg levels, suggesting non-homogeneity in the upper range of exposure. Additionally, some of the curves suggested a possible non-linear relationship within the range of exposure we studied. This non-linear analysis supports the findings from the linear analysis. It shows little evidence to support an adverse association of prenatal MeHg exposure through maternal consumption of fish contaminated with natural background levels. However, the tree analysis suggests that the prenatal exposure/outcome relationship may not be homogeneous across all individuals and that some subpopulations may have an adverse association in the upper range of the exposures studied. More robust data in the higher levels of exposure in this cohort are needed to confirm this finding.     

Variance as a function of sample support size

The effect of sample support size on variance is examined and evaluated. Results based on variograms and geostatistics are compared to the classical relationship developed by H. F. Smith in 1938; that is, that the variance is reduced fromV ₁ toV ₁ /n ^b as the support area increases from I ton plots for uniformity trials. The exponentb is between zero and one. Theoretical results are based on use of auxiliary functions and account for the size and shape of the sample support and the overall field geometry. Results are given in terms of approximations by rational functions for ease of calculation. Experimental results for uniformity trials, infiltration measurements, and spectral data from satellites are compared to theoretical and empirical results. Applications include not only uniformity trials, but also measurement theory.     

A statistical-mechanics model of ordering in aluminosilicate solid solutions

A statistical-thermodynamic approximation for order-disorder phase transitions in aluminosilicate solid solutions is presented. The approximation involves estimating the number of configurations with long range order parameter Q and short range order parameter σ, using an approximation to the probability that a configuration with the correct amount of long range order will also have the correct amount of short range order. This estimate is then used to give a free energy F(Q, σ, x, T), where x is the concentration of Al in the structure, and hence quantities such as T _c (x) are estimated. The predictions of the model for T _c (x) and the critical concentration x _c at which T _c falls to zero are shown to be in good agreement with the results of Monte Carlo simulations. Received: 14 May 1997 / Revised, accepted: 2 June 1997