Studying the impacts of groundwater evolution on the environment,west Qena city,Egypt

The current research has been conducted to evaluate groundwater aquifers qualitatively in the area located in the Western side of Qena city. The Quaternary aquifer represents the main groundwater source in the study area. It exists under unconfined to semiconfined conditions at depths varying between 4 m due North and 80 m in the South. The chemical analyses of the groundwater samples indicate that 77% of the total samples are fresh and 20% are brackish, while only 3% are saline. In addition, the iso-salinity contour map indicates that the salinity increases towards the central and northern parts of the study area. The total and permanent hardness increase as water salinity increases and vice versa in case of temporary hardness in the groundwater samples. The chemical water types and the ion ratios indicate meteoric origin of groundwater as well as the dissolution of terrestrial and marine salts. The contribution of recent recharge from the River Nile to a few groundwater wells in the study area varies from low to high. In addition, the most recharge sources are from the precipitation. Nitrate concentrations in groundwater increase towards the central and Northern areas significantly elevated in response to increasing anthropogenic land uses. Much of the solutes and physicochemical parameters in these waters are under the undesirable limits of World Health Organization (WHO) for drinking purpose, and a plot of sodium adsorption ratio versus EC shows that about 23% of the groundwater samples are good water quality, about 45% of groundwater samples are moderate quality, and 23% of the groundwater samples are intermediate water class, while the rest of samples (9%) are out of the range.     

An isolation system for limited seismic gaps in near‐fault zones

The ability of a recently proposed seismic isolation system, with inherent self‐stopping mechanism, to mitigate or even eliminate seismic pounding of adjacent structures is investigated under severe near‐fault earthquakes. The isolation system is referred to as roll‐in‐cage (RNC) isolator. It is a rolling‐based isolator that provides in one unit the necessary functions of vertical rigid support, horizontal flexibility with enhanced stability, hysteretic energy dissipation, and resistance to minor vibration loads. In addition, the RNC isolator is distinguished by a self‐stopping (buffer) mechanism to limit the bearing displacement under excitations stronger than a design earthquake or at limited seismic gaps, and a linear gravity‐based self‐recentering mechanism to prevent permanent bearing displacement without causing vertical fluctuation of the isolated structure. A previously developed multifeature SAP2000 model of the RNC isolator is improved in this paper to account for the inherent buffer mechanism's damping. Then, the effectiveness of the isolator's buffer mechanism in limiting peak bearing displacements is studied together with its possibly arising negative influence on the isolation efficiency. After that, the study investigates how to alleviate or even eliminate those possibly arising drawbacks, due to the developed RNC isolator's inner pounding as a result of its buffer activation, to achieve efficient seismic isolation with no direct structure‐to‐structure pounding, considering limited seismic gaps with adjacent structures and near‐fault earthquakes. The results show that the RNC isolator could be an efficient solution for aseismic design in near‐fault zones considering limited seismic gaps. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

3D Gravity Inversion of Northern Sinai Peninsula: A Case Study

The Sinai Peninsula has attracted the attention of many geological and geophysical studies as it is influenced and bounded by major tectonic events. Those are (1) the Mesozoic to Early Cenozoic tectonically active opening of the Tethys, (2) the Late Cretaceous to Early Tertiary (Laramide) Syrian arc system, due to closing of the Tethys (3) the Oligo-Miocene Gulf of Suez rifted basin, and (4) the Late Miocene to Recent transform Dead Sea–Gulf of Aqaba rift. Additionally, the shear zones inside Sinai such as the Ragabet El-Naam and Minsherah-Abu Kandu Shear Zones. Each of these major tectonic events has affected dramatically the structure evolution of the northern Sinai area. The present paper estimates the 3D density contrast model using the gravity data of northern Sinai. The estimated 3D density contrast model elucidated the peculiarities of the main structural elements in the region. The estimated 3D density contrast model showed the high and low gravity anomalies that form the main mountains and main valleys in northern Sinai. The estimated low density zones are in agreement with the inferred faults resulting from the first horizontal derivative. Comparing the 3D model with the tectonic history of the region and the results of the first horizontal derivative and least square separation increased the reliability of the model.     

Prediction of magnitude of the largest potentially induced seismic event

We propose a method for determining the possible magnitude of a potentially largest induced seismic event derived from the Gutenberg–Richter law and an estimate of total released seismic moment. We emphasize that the presented relationship is valid for induced (not triggered) seismicity, as the total seismic moment of triggered seismicity is not bound by the injection. The ratio of the moment released by the largest event and weaker events is determined by the constants a and b of the Gutenberg–Richter law. We show that for a total released seismic moment, it is possible to estimate number of events greater than a given magnitude. We determine the formula for the moment magnitude of a probable largest seismic event with one occurrence within the recurrence interval (given by one volumetric change caused by mining or injecting). Finally, we compare theoretical and measured values of the moment magnitudes of the largest induced seismic events for selected geothermal and hydraulic fracturing projects.     

Uncertainty in recurrence rates of large magnitude events due to short historic catalogs

Seismic hazard analysis requires knowledge of the recurrence rates of large magnitude earthquakes that drive the hazard at low probabilities of interest for seismic design. Earthquake recurrence is usually determined through studies of the historic earthquake catalogue for a given region. Reliable historic catalogues generally span time periods of 100–200 years in North America, while large magnitude events (M?≥?7) have recurrence rates on the order of hundreds or thousands of years in many areas, resulting in large uncertainty in recurrence rates for large events. Using Monte Carlo techniques and assuming typical recurrence parameters, we simulate earthquake catalogues that span long periods of time. We then split these catalogues into smaller catalogues spanning 100–200 years that mimic the length of historic catalogues. For each of these simulated “historic” catalogues, a recurrence rate for large magnitude events is determined. By comparing recurrence rates from one historic-length catalogue to another, we quantify the uncertainty associated with determining recurrence rates from short historic catalogues. The use of simulations to explore the uncertainty (rather than analytical solutions) allows us flexibility to consider issues such as the relative contributions of aleatory versus epistemic uncertainty, and the influence of fitting method, as well as lending insight into extreme-event statistics. The uncertainty in recurrence rates of large (M?>?7) events is about a factor of two in regions of high seismicity, due to the shortness of historic catalogues. This uncertainty increases greatly with decreasing seismic activity. Uncertainty is dependent on the length of the catalogue as well as the fitting method used (least squares vs. maximum likelihood). Examination of 90th percentile recurrence rates reveals that epistemic uncertainty in the true parameters may cause recurrence rates determined from historic catalogues to be uncertain by a factor greater than 50.     

Offshore sand sources for beach replenishment: Potential borrows on the continental shelf of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico

Erosion of sandy beaches is a worldwide problem that elicits innovative geoengineer‐ing techniques to reduce adverse impacts of shoreline retreat. Beach replenishment has emerged as the “soft”; shore‐stabilization technique of choice for mitigating beach erosion. This method of shore protection involves the addition of sand to the littoral sediment budget for sacrificial purposes. Because inland sand sources are often uneconomical or impractical to use, and known nearshore sources are limited, finding adequate quantities of suitable sand on the inner continental shelf is often vital to beach replenishment projects. The technical studies of survey and materials analysis that identify and delineate usable sand sources are sometimes almost as expensive as small‐project dredging, pumping, and placing the sand on the beach as fill. Inadequate quantity or substandard quality of shelf sand, as well as often‐prohibitive overhead expenses, thus compel shoreline managers to seek suitable sand sources offshore.

In the study area off the central‐west coast of Florida, offshore potential borrow areas (PBAs) were identified on the basis of studies conducted in reconnoitory and detailed phases. Sophisticated state‐of‐the‐art equipment used in this investigation provided more detailed subbottom mapping information than is normally obtained with conventional seismic equipment. An example of sand exploration studies was incorporated in a 215‐km² survey of offshore areas by conducting bathymetric surveys and subbottom seismic profiling, collecting jet probes, grab samples, and vibrocores, and analyzing sediment grading in subsamples from vibrocores. These combined analyses indicated that at least 8.8 ×10⁶ m³ of sand is available in potential borrow areas from 7.0 to 12 km offshore in water depths of 8.0 to 11.5 m. In the PBAs, mean grain size of sand falls into the range 0.13–0.53 mm, sorting averages 0.65–1.31ø, and the overall silt content varies from 3.9–8.5%. High silt contents (13–19%) mapped in some areas make these sedimentary deposits unsuitable as fill for artificial beach renourishment.     

Optimization of slope angle and its seismic stability: A case study for the proposed open pit coalmine in Phulbari, NW Bangladesh

The present study reflects upon the results of substantial program of two-dimensional Finite Element Method （FEM） numerical analyses of the open pit that links to slope angle optimization associated with the safety factor of the pit slope of a coal mine in Bangladesh. In the present analyses, two types of models have been presented. The first model estimates safety factor without seismic effect on the overall pit slope of the model; the second model incorporates safety factor with seismic stability of the model. The calculated optimum slope angle of the first model is 31% with a rational safety factor of 1.51, prior to the seismic effect. However, the value is reduced to 0.93, 0.82, and 0.72, after we applies the seismic effect in the second model with M6, M6.5, and M7, respectively. Finally, our modeling results emphasize that for the case of the proposed Phulbari coalmine, there is extremely high prospect for causing massive slope failure along the optimum pit slope angle with 31% if the mine area felt seismic shaking, like the Sikkim （in northern India） earthquake with M6.9 on September 18, 2011.     

Time series analysis of water quality parameters at Stillaguamish River using order series method

This study applied the time series analysis approach to model and predict univariate dissolved oxygen and temperature time series for four water quality assessment stations at Stillaguamish River located in the state of Washington. The order series method was applied to fulfill the normality assumption for modeling the univariate time series. Then, the AR(I)MA models were applied to study the stationary and nonstationary time series, the Auto-Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average model was applied to study the time series with long memory. The results showed there existed three different structures for the univariate water quality time series at Stillaguamish River watershed. The identified time series model for each univariate water quality time series was found to be capable of predicting future values with reasonable accuracy. Overall, the time series modeling approach may be an efficient tool in assessment of the water quality in the river system.