Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of mesoscale model downscaled hydro‐meteorological variables for discharge prediction

Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) are the most important variables for rainfall–runoff modelling. However, it is not always possible to get access to them from ground‐based measurements, particularly in ungauged catchments. This study explores the performance of rainfall and ETo data from the global European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA interim reanalysis data for the discharge prediction. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model coupled with the NOAH Land Surface Model is used for the retrieval of hydro‐meteorological variables by downscaling ECMWF datasets. The conceptual Probability Distribution Model (PDM) is chosen for this study for the discharge prediction. The input data and model parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimations are taken into account for the PDM calibration and prediction in the case study catchment in England following the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. The goodness of calibration and prediction uncertainty is judged on the basis of the p‐factor (observations bracketed by the prediction uncertainty) and the r‐factor (achievement of small uncertainty band). The overall analysis suggests that the uncertainty estimates using WRF downscaled ETo have slightly smaller p and r values (p= 0.65; r= 0.58) as compared to ground‐based observation datasets (p= 0.71; r= 0.65) during the validation and hence promising for discharge prediction. On the contrary, WRF precipitation has the worst performance, and further research is needed for its improvement (p= 0.04; r= 0.10). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic radar rainfall nowcasts using empirical and theoretical uncertainty models

Weather radar has a potential to provide accurate short‐term (0–3 h) forecasts of rainfall (i.e. radar nowcasts), which are of great importance in warnings and risk management for hydro‐meteorological events. However, radar nowcasts are affected by large uncertainties, which are not only linked to limitations in the forecast method but also because of errors in the radar rainfall measurement. The probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting approach attempts to quantify these uncertainties by delivering the forecasts in a probabilistic form. This study implements two forms of probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting for a hilly area in the south of Manchester, namely, the theoretically based scheme [ensemble rainfall forecasts (ERF)‐TN] and the empirically based scheme (ERF‐EM), and explores which one exhibits higher predictive skill. The ERF‐TN scheme generates ensemble forecasts of rainfall in which each ensemble member is determined by the stochastic realisation of a theoretical noise component. The so‐called ERF‐EM scheme proposed and applied for the first time in this study, aims to use an empirically based error model to measure and quantify the combined effect of all the error sources in the radar rainfall forecasts. The essence of the error model is formulated into an empirical relation between the radar rainfall forecasts and the corresponding ‘ground truth’ represented by the rainfall field from rain gauges measurements. The ensemble members generated by the two schemes have been compared with the rain gauge rainfall. The hit rate and the false alarm rate statistics have been computed and combined into relative operating characteristic curves. The comparison of the performance scores for the two schemes shows that the ERF‐EM achieves better performance than the ERF‐TN at 1‐h lead time. The predictive skills of both schemes are almost identical when the lead time increases to 2 h. In addition, the relation between uncertainty in the radar rainfall forecasts and lead time is also investigated by computing the dispersion of the generated ensemble members. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lateglacial and Holocene palaeohydrology in the western Mediterranean region: The Lake Estanya record (NE Spain)

The multi-proxy analysis of sediment cores recovered in karstic Lake Estanya (42°02′ N, 0°32′ E; 670 m a. s. l., NE Spain), located in the transitional area between the humid Pyrenees and the semi-arid Central Ebro Basin, provides the first high-resolution, continuous sedimentary record in the region, extending back the last 21 000 years. The integration of sedimentary facies, elemental and isotopical geochemistry and biogenic silica, together with a robust age model based on 17 AMS radiocarbon dates, enables precise reconstruction of the main hydrological and environmental changes in the region during the last deglaciation.Arid conditions, represented by shallow lake levels, predominantly saline waters and reduced organic productivity occurred throughout the last glacial maximum (21–18 cal kyrs BP) and the lateglacial, reaching their maximum intensity during the period 18–14.5 cal kyrs BP (including Heinrich event 1) and the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.6 cal kyrs BP). Less saline conditions characterized the 14.5–12.6 cal kyrs BP period, suggesting higher effective moisture during the Bölling/Allerød. The onset of more humid conditions started at 9.4 cal kyrs, indicating a delayed hydrological response to the onset of the Holocene which is also documented in several sites of the Mediterranean Basin. Higher, although fluctuating, Holocene lake levels were punctuated by a mid Holocene arid period between 4.8 and 4.0 cal kyrs BP. A major lake-level rise occurred at 1.2 cal kyrs BP, conducive to the establishment of conditions similar to the present and interrupted by a last major water level drop, occurring around 800 cal yrs BP, which coincides with the Medieval Climate Anomaly.The main hydrological stages in Lake Estanya are in phase with most Western Mediterranean and North Atlantic continental and marine records, but our results also show similarities with other Iberian and northern African reconstructions, emphasizing peculiarities of palaeohydrological evolution of the Iberian Peninsula during the last deglaciation.     

An analytical model of a deformable cantilever structure rocking on a rigid surface: development and verification

This paper extends previously developed models to account for the influence of the column and the foundation masses on the behavior of top‐heavy deformable elastic cantilever columns rocking on a rigid support surface. Several models for energy dissipation at impact are examined and compared. A novel Vertical Velocity Energy Loss model is introduced. Rocking uplift and overturning spectra for the deformable elastic cantilever model excited by sinusoidal ground motions are constructed. The effects of non‐dimensional model parameter variations on the rocking spectra and the overturning stability of the model are presented. It is shown that the remarkable overturning stability of dynamically excited large cantilever columns is not jeopardized by their deformability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analytical model of a deformable cantilever structure rocking on a rigid surface: experimental validation

This paper describes an experimental program to examine the dynamic response of deformable cantilevers rocking on a rigid surface. The primary goal of the tests is to verify and validate a dynamic rocking model that describes the behavior of these structures. The benchmark response data was obtained from shaking‐table tests on deformable rocking specimens with different natural vibration frequencies and different aspect ratios excited by analytical pulses and recorded ground motions. The responses computed using the model are found to be in good agreement with the benchmark test results. Widely used impact, restitution and damping assumptions are revisited based on the experiment results and the analytical model findings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetic parameters reflecting pedogenesis in Pleistocene loess deposits of Argentina

Quaternary loess sequences of Argentina, with interbedded loess and buried soils (palaeosols), provide terrestrial records of past climates and environmental conditions. Study of rock magnetic parameters measured over a large area of the Pampean loess seems to indicate that the existing magnetoclimatological models cannot adequately account for the complexities of the Pampean loess.The Chinese loess has been considered as typical, where magnetic properties are largely controlled by pedogenesis. On the other hand, the Siberian loess is an alternative magnetoclimatological model in which palaeosols appear as magnetic lows and the intercalated loess as magnetic highs. Argentine loess is apparently closer to the Siberian model. However, considering the data obtained in Argentina, the situation seems to be more complicated. The higest magnetic values (SIRM and susceptibiliy values) in silty and sandy loess indicate a more efficient entrainment of dense iron oxides particles during stormy dry (glacial) intervals.The parent material shows the highest susceptibility values (>100 × 10⁻⁸ m³/kg) while the waterlogged horizons show the lowest ones (below 20 × 10⁻⁸ m³/kg). Pedogenesis resulting in the development of BC and B soil horizons of palaeosols in the parent loess produced decreases in susceptibility values and increases in the F factor. This phenomenon occurs at some degree of humidity in which the process of gleying caused the total depletion of both susceptibility and frequency factor. The magnentic data allows consideration of the relevance of major cycles (arid/humid) separated by discontinuities as the main factor favoring one particular behavior of the magnetic parameters. The B horizons of palaeosols developed during an arid cycle will not show a notable difference in the magnetic records from the parent material. In contrast, during humid climate condition the pristine loess can be progresively obliterated by pedogensis through to the extreme situation of gleying.     

SN 2005cs in M51 – I. The first month of evolution of a subluminous SN II plateau

Early-time optical observations of supernova (SN) 2005cs in the Whirlpool Galaxy (M51) are reported. Photometric data suggest that SN 2005cs is a moderately underluminous Type II plateau SN (SN IIP). The SN was unusually blue at early epochs (   U − B ≈−0.9  about three days after explosion) which indicates very high continuum temperatures. The spectra show relatively narrow P Cygni features, suggesting ejecta velocities lower than observed in more typical SNe IIP. The earliest spectra show weak absorption features in the blue wing of the He  i 5876-Å absorption component and, less clearly, of Hβ and Hα. Based on spectral modelling, two different interpretations can be proposed: these features may either be due to high-velocity H and He  i components, or (more likely) be produced by different ions (N  ii , Si  ii ). Analogies with the low-luminosity, ⁵⁶Ni-poor, low-velocity SNe IIP are also discussed. While a more extended spectral coverage is necessary in order to determine accurately the properties of the progenitor star, published estimates of the progenitor mass seem not to be consistent with stellar evolution models.     

The first dinosaur tracksite from Xinjiang, NW China (Middle Jurassic Sanjianfang Formation, Turpan Basin)——a preliminary report

A new dinosaur tracksite was discovered in a steeply inclined sandstone layer of the Middle Jurassic Sanjianfang Formation in the Shanshan area of the Turpan Basin. The site is the first record of dinosaur footprints from Xinjiang Province in northwestern China. More than 150 tridactyl theropod dinosaur footprints are preserved as positive hyporeliefs on the lower bedding plane of a fine-grained sandstone body. Most of the footprints are isolated and appear to be randomly distributed. Some show well defined phalangeal pads, heels and rarely indistinct impressions of the distal part of the metatarsus. Two distinct morphotypes are present: a larger type with relatively broad pads shows similarities to Changpeipus and Megalosauripus, and a slightly smaller, slender and gracile type which is similar to Grallator, Eubrontes and Anchisauripus. In both morphotypes, digit III is the longest with a length between 11.4 and 33.6 cm. A single imprint shows prominent scratches, probably formed during slipping of the track maker.     

Hydrological response of a dryland ephemeral river to southern African climatic variability during the last millennium

A long-term flood record from the Buffels River, the largest ephemeral river of NW South Africa (9250 km²), was reconstructed based on interpretation of palaeoflood, documentary and instrumental rainfall data. Palaeoflood data were obtained at three study reaches, with preserved sedimentary evidence indicating at least 25 large floods during the last 700 yr. Geochronological control for the palaeoflood record was provided by radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. Annual resolution was obtained since the 19th century using the overlapping documentary and instrumental records. Large floods coincided in the past within three main hydroclimatic settings: (1) periods of regular large flood occurrence (1 large flood/~30 yr) under wetter and cooler prevailing climatic conditions (AD 1600–1800), (2) decreasing occurrence of large floods (1 large flood/~100 yr) during warmer conditions (e.g., AD 1425–1600 and after 1925), and (3) periods of high frequency of large floods (~ 4–5 large floods in 20–30 yr) coinciding with wetter conditions of decadal duration, namely at AD 1390–1425, 1800–1825 and 1915–1925. These decadal-scale periods of the highest flood frequency seem to correspond in time with changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, as inferred when comparing their onset and distribution with temperature proxies in southern Africa.     

Variable effects of forest canopies on snow processes in a valley of the central Spanish Pyrenees

Snowpacks and forests have complex interactions throughout the large range of altitudes where they co-occur. However, there are no reliable data on the spatial and temporal interactions of forests with snowpacks, such as those that occur in nearby areas that have different environmental conditions and those that occur during different snow seasons. This study monitored the interactions of forests with snowpacks in four forest stands in a single valley of the central Spanish Pyrenees during three consecutive snow seasons (2015/2016, 2016/2017 and 2017/2018). Daily snow depth data from time-lapse cameras were compared with snow data from field surveys that were performed every 10–15 days. These data thus provided information on the spatial and temporal changes of snow–water equivalent (SWE). The results indicated that forest had the same general effects on snowpack in each forest stand and during each snow season. On average, forest cover reduced the duration of snowpack by 17 days, reduced the cumulative SWE of the snowpack by about 60% and increased the spatial heterogeneity of snowpack by 190%. Overall, forest cover reduced SWE total accumulation by 40% and the rate of SWE accumulation by 25%. The forest-mediated reduction of the accumulation rate, in combination with the occasional forest-mediated enhancement of melting rate, explained the reduced duration of snowpacks beneath forest canopies. However, the magnitude and timing of certain forest effects on snowpack had significant spatial and temporal variations. This variability must be considered when selecting the location of an experimental site in a mountainous area, because the study site should be representative of surrounding areas. The same considerations apply when selecting a time period for study.