基于地理信息系统的空间统计学方法在地震统计中的应用

传统的地震统计学多局限于规则的统计范围,或是需要较多的人工干预,本文引入了基于地理信息系统的空间统计学方法,将其应用于地震空间统计中,能够高效、快速地挖掘含有地理信息的各要素之间的相互联系。本文以川滇地区2019年发生的ML≥1.0地震数量的空间统计为例,详述了对地震数据进行空间统计的流程。统计结果表明,0.5°×0.5°是最适合该地震数据集空间统计的矩形范围,发生地震次数最多的区域位于四川盆地西南缘的威远?长宁地区,此外龙门山断裂带、龙门山断裂带与鲜水河?小江断裂系交汇处、丽江?小金河断裂沿线以及滇南地区均为地震发生次数较高的区域。此外,还利用该方法计算了2015—2019年全国各省地震能量释放情况。结果显示在该时间段内,释放地震能量总量最多的省份为四川省,新疆维吾尔自治区和西藏自治区次之,而台湾地区陆地区域、四川省、西藏自治区等地区具有较高的每万平方公里地震能量释放量和每万人地震能量承受量。并通过上述应用实例,探索了地理信息系统在地震统计领域的初步应用。     

地震应急协同移动互联应用软件的设计与实现

应急协同是应急管理体系中的关键环节,重特大地震等突发事件往往需要多部门协同实施应急救援服务。本文利用Netty、OkHttp及高德地图API等主流技术,构建基于Android智能手机的移动应用系统。该系统融合了应急协同、应急基础数据查询、灾情实时上报等功能,为地震应急决策服务提供移动端应用支持,提升地震应急工作的联动性和协同性。     

基于地形的海底热液区沉积物分布趋势预测方法研究

热液区沉积物接受了大量热液物质的输入,其矿物组成及地球化学空间分布特征是多金属硫化物勘探的有效指标。由于重力作用,洋中脊区域沉积物主要分布于低洼和平坦地形区。为了探索地形因素对热液区沉积物分布的影响规律,本文通过ArcGIS提出了一种基于地形数据的海底热液区沉积物分布趋势预测方法,并对西南印度洋中脊龙角区地形数据进行了分析,包括沉积物重力搬运方向提取、沉积物汇集量估算、海底沟谷提取和沉积物源区划分。通过与研究区底质解译结果进行对比验证发现,预测结果与研究区内沉积物的实际分布范围较为吻合,表明本方法在一定程度上可以有效地指示地形影响下海底热液区沉积物的分布情况。本方法对海底硫化物矿产勘探工作具有一定指导意义,可为海底沉积物取样站位设置与海底硫化物成矿远景区圈定提供参考依据。     

气候变化背景下灾害移民的政策响应——从“亚太气候(灾害)移民政策响应地区会议”看灾害移民政策的调整

简要介绍了2011年9月15～16日在菲律宾马尼拉召开的"亚太气候(灾害)移民政策响应"地区会议,并着重阐述了当前国际灾害移民领域的重要进展和发展趋向,结合气候变化背景下中国重特大自然灾害移民案例,初步提出了气候变化背景下灾害移民的政策响应。区分渐发性、突发性灾害,综合"自上而下"与"自下而上"的工作方式,建立"政府—企业—社区/个人"协同合作机制,形成区域内—外合作,统筹短期安置与长远发展的灾害移民政策。所提的灾害移民响应政策综合多时空、多方法、多要素,可为气候变化背景下提升中国综合灾害风险防范能力,最大限度地降低灾害损失提供重要参考。     

南堡凹陷东营组巨厚堆积的关键控制要素及其油气地质意义

以南堡凹陷东营组为研究对象,采取时空演化与对比的方法,从东营组发育期构造活动的独特性出发,判别出凹陷边缘断裂的活动性在古近纪晚期进一步增大的同时,凹陷整体的坳陷作用也在进一步增强。在上述边界断层强烈活动和基底沉降强烈增速的"双强要素"联合作用下,南堡凹陷的沉降中心、沉积中心均远离边界断层而发育于凹陷中心,并导致了在东营组堆积期大面积深湖相沉积的发育;其内部堆积了厚层的深湖相泥岩和大量的深湖浊积体,同时在凹陷北部的断控陡坡部位发育了大量的扇三角洲体系,在南部缓坡部位则发育了辫状河三角洲沉积,从而使东营组内部储层非常发育,且类型齐全;新近系巨大的地层厚度导致了东营组的烃源岩进入生烃门限而生烃、排烃,从而构成了良好的"自生自储"组合。东营组堆积期及其后的新构造运动又导致了大量的同沉积断层活动和晚期的再活动,这些断层有效地将东营组储集体与下伏Es3+Es2+Es1的"烃源灶"沟通,并将下部油气垂向运移至东营组乃至更浅层位的储集体内聚集成藏,从而造就了东营组巨大的油气勘探潜力。     

综合超前地质预报在西南溶岩隧道施工中的应用

在分析铁路隧道建设中常用的超前地质预报方法的基础上,通过地质调查对云南省某在建铁路隧道进行风险定级,并采用与风险等级相应的综合预报方案,准确地预报了该隧道潜在的地质灾害.根据预报结果及时调整了施工和应急方案,有效地预防了施工事故,减少了工程损失,保证了施工安全.     

The Tuerkubantao ophiolite melange in Xinjiang, NW China： New evidence for the Erqis suture zone

The extension of the suture zone between the Siberian and Kazakhstan continents in China has been a matter of debate because few outcrops of ophiolitic melange have been found so far.The recently found Tuerkubantao ophiolitic melange,which is located east of the Kekesentao Mt.in the Buerjin County of the Chinese Altay,provides an important clue for this problem.This paper presents the results of field investigation,petrology,U-Pb isotope dating of zircons and bulk-rock geochemistry of the Tuerkubantao melange rocks.The melange consists of fault-contacted ultramafic rocks,gabbro, diabase,basalt,flysch and granitoids.The ultramafic-mafic rocks are Mg-rich（Mg^#=4.25—6.35） and w（SiO₂） spans 38.8%—46.8%.Basalt and gabbro are geochemically similar and are characterized by low w（FeO^t）（10.9%）,total alkali w（Na₂O+K₂O）=2.58%) and w（TiO₂）（1.17%） and affinity to the Mg-rich tholeiite series.The flat REE and trace-element patterns of the ultramafic-mafic rocks are indicative of their ophiolite origin,i.e.,formation in a mid-oceanic ridge setting.The fragments of low-K gneissic granite formed in suprasubduction or syn-collisional setting.Zircons from gabbro and gneissic granite yielded U-Pb ages of 363 and 355 Ma.respectively,suggesting Late Devonian mid-oceanic spreading and oceanic subduction accompanied by suprasubduction magmatism.The Tiierkubantao ophiolite together with the Qiaoxiahala and Buergen ophiolites of the Kekesentao belt define an ophiolitic melange belt extending along the Erqis fault.This belt probably belongs to the Ural-Zaisan -South Mongolian suture-shear zone formed during the subduction of the Paleo-Asian Ocean and subsequent collision of the Siberian and Kazakhstan continents.     

Influences of spatial distribution of soil thickness on shallow landslide prediction

Shallow landslides usually occur during hevy rainfall and result in casualties and property losses. Thus, the possible locations where landslides are likely to occur must be identified in advance in order to avoid or reduce the harm they cause. When performing a slope-instability analysis, soil thickness is an important factor; however, soil thickness information from landslide-prone areas is rarely obtained. The objective of this study is to realize the influences of spatial distribution of soil thickness on shallow landslide prediction. Three different spatial soil-thickness distributions were applied to perform a slope-instability analysis, and uniform-distributed soil thicknesses from 0.4 m to 2.0 m were also applied for comparison. Geomorphologic information and hydrological records from a landslide-prone area in southern Taiwan were collected. Results show that the spatial distribution of soil thickness related to wetness index provides a reasonable estimation in order to avoid an over-prediction for landslide-prone areas or an under-prediction for stable areas. The analytical procedure used in this study is a simple way for assessing hillslope instability for shallow landslide prediction.     

东洞庭湖区城市雷暴活动规律

基于19612013年岳阳国家气象观测站雷暴观测资料,采用核密度估计、线性倾向方法、Morlet小波分析和Mann-Kendall趋势检验分析东洞庭湖区城市雷暴基本规律与变化情况.结果表明:19612013年东洞庭湖区城市雷暴日数以夏季的最多,春季的次之,秋、冬季节的较少,呈现波动减少的趋势,尤其是春、夏季雷暴日减少速...     

Uncertainty Evaluation of the Surface Water’sHeavy Metal Health Risk in Baiyun Mountain

The water environmental health risk assessment relates environmental pollution with human health, taking its risk degree as evaluation index, quantitatively describing the risk that pollution does great harm to human body. To understand the surface water’s heavy metal health risk in Guangzhou Baiyun Mountain, this study measured the nine sampling points in Baiyun Mountain’s south mountain and north mountain, including these physical and chemical indicators, such as water temperature, pH value, Cd, As, Cr, Hg, Pb, Mn, Cu,Zn and Ni, constructing the uncertainty evaluation model of the surface water’s heavy metal health risk in Baiyun Mountain(heavy metal including radioactive substances, chemical carcinogens and body toxic substances, etc.), having a fuzzy classification of the health risk assessment standard of the surface water’s heavy metal, further determining the membership degree and the belonging of the risk grade. By comparing the evaluation results of the uncertainty model and the deterministic model, the study found that: the surface water’s heavy metal health risk level was higher in Guangzhou Baiyun Mountain in 2012, being of the high grade and above, even achieving the highest grade; the surface water’s heavy metal health risk level of the north mountain was higher than the south mountain; the uncertainty evaluation model of the surface water’s heavy metal health risk was more reasonable and comprehensive to reflect the real situation of the surface water’s heavy metal quality concentration than the deterministic model. Besides, in the relevant references these questions on the total score of the health risk of the uncertainty evaluation model, the membership degree formula of the risk grade, etc. need further discussion.