基于多尺度时空聚类的共享单车潮汐特征挖掘与需求预测研究

当前,我国政府和单车企业多以划定电子围栏停车点的方式进行共享单车的规范化管理,由于单个电子围栏内部单车流入流出的随机性和不确定性较大,以单个围栏为单位进行单车管理的工作量大且不具现实意义。因此,有必要对电子围栏停车点进行聚类划分,实行区域化的管理与调度。基于此,本文提出一种基于时空约束的网络图聚类算法,该算法综合考虑空间因素（地理位置、地理环境特征）和时间因素（历史订单）,只需通过距离阈值设定即可实现电子围栏的多尺度聚类划分,实验分别在3000 m和700 m距离阈值条件下对厦门岛和乌石浦地区电子围栏进行聚类,结果显示该算法不仅能够将具有相似时空特征的电子围栏聚到同一社区簇内,而且能够使得单车流动主要集中在划分后的社区内部;随后,在社区划分基础上进行单车潮汐特征挖掘,能够有效识别和定位单车使用的热点地区;最后,利用长短时记忆神经网络（Long-Short Time Memory network, LSTM）进行单车订单需求预测,结果显示有84%以上社区的预测准确率在85%以上,平均预测准确率为91.301%,预测效果较好,可有效满足单车调度需求。本文研究成果可服务于电子围栏停车点规划与共享单车的区域化管理与调度工作。     

Effects of Doubled Carbon Dioxide on Rainfall Responses to Radiative Processes of Water Clouds

The effects of doubled carbon dioxide on rainfall responses to radiative processes of water clouds are investigated in this study.Two groups of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments with regard to pre-summer heavy rainfall around the summer solstice and tropical rainfall around the winter solstice are conducted and their five-day averages over the model domain are analyzed.In the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds,doubled carbon dioxide changes pre-summer rainfall from the decrease associated with the enhanced atmospheric cooling to the increase associated with the enhanced infrared cooling as a result of the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds.Doubled carbon dioxide leads to the reduction in tropical rainfall,caused by the removal of radiative effects of water clouds through the suppressed infrared cooling.In the absence of radiative effects of ice clouds,doubled carbon dioxide changes pre-summer rainfall from the increase associated with the strengthened atmospheric warming to the decrease associated with the weakened release of latent heat caused by the elimination of radiative effects of water clouds.The exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds increases tropical rainfall through the strengthened infrared cooling,which is insensitive to the change in carbon dioxide.     

Simulated Impacts of Sulfate and Nitrate Aerosol Formation on Surface-Layer Ozone Concentrations in China

The authors quantify the impacts of sulfate and nitrate aerosol formation on surface-layer 03 concentrations over China using the one-way nested-grid capa- bility of the global three-dimensional Goddard Earth Ob- serving System chemical transport model （GEOS-Chem）. Chemical reactions associated with sulfate formation are simulated to generally increase 03 concentrations in China. Over the North China Plain （NCP） and the Si- chuan Basin （SCB）, where simulated sulfate concentra- tions are the largest, ozone concentrations show maximum increases in spring by 1.8 ppbv （3.2%） in the NCP and by 2.6 ppbv （3.7%） in the SCB. On the contrary, nitrate formation is simulated to reduce 03 concentrations by up to 1.0 ppbv in eastern China, with the largest reduc- tions of 1.0 ppbv （1.4%） in summer over the NCE Ac- counting for the formation of both sulfate and nitrate, the surface-layer O3 concentrations over a large fraction of eastern China are simulated to increase in winter, spring, and autumn, dominated by the impact of sulfate forma- tion, but to decrease in summer because of the dominant contribution from nitrate formation.     

基于一维扩散方程反演温度垂直扩散系数的变分方法

Diapycnal mixing is important in oceanic circulation. An inverse method in which a semi-explicit scheme is applied to discretize the one-dimensional temperature diffusion equation is established to estimate the vertical temperature diffusion coefficient based on the observed temperature profiles. The sensitivity of the inverse model in the idealized and actual conditions is tested in detail. It can be found that this inverse model has high feasibility under multiple situations ensuring the stability of the inverse model, and can be considered as an efficient way to estimate the temperature diffusion coefficient in the weak current regions of the ocean. Here, the hydrographic profiles from Argo floats are used to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of the vertical mixing in the north central Pacific based on this inverse method. It is further found that the vertical mixing in the upper ocean displays a distinct seasonal variation with the amplitude decreasing with depth, and the vertical mixing over rough topography is stronger than that over smooth topography It is suggested that the high-resolution profiles from Argo floats and a more reasonable design of the inverse scheme will serve to understand mixing processes.     

基于LAPS资料的一次冰雹过程数值催化模拟研究

基于3维冰雹云模式,采用局地分析预报系统高时空分辨率分析场作为初始场,对鄂西北地区2009年4月15日发生的一次降雹天气过程进行数值模拟,分析了强对流发展过程的流场、雷达回波、水成物粒子演变特征以及催化机制。研究表明:基于高时空分辨率资料的3维冰雹云模式,能够较好地模拟冰雹云的形成发展演变及人工催化后微物理过程响应。模式输出的雷达回波强度及回波顶高与雷达实测资料相近,最大反射率因子分别为70 dBz、65 dBz,强回波中心基本上位于6~7 km处。冰雹云发展过程中呈现典型的低层辐合、高层辐散特征,消亡过程流场相反;冰雹胚胎形成主要源于冻滴自动转化,碰并云水和雨水促进冰雹增长;不同时间、不同剂量的催化对于防雹效果差异显著,催化时间越早,催化剂量越大,效果越好。     

泰山云步桥景区崩塌灾害特征及防治

以实际调查、监测资料为依据,在分析云步桥景区崩塌地质灾害特征的基础上,提出了崩塌灾害治理方案,并依据治理方案对可能继续发生崩塌的悬空区进行了治理。治理方案针对地质灾害的具体情况,采用了国内先进的综合方法,实施成本较低,方法实用,效果良好。     

基于国产遥感数据的秭归县地质灾害区域危险性评价

以位于三峡库区的秭归县为研究区,选择国产2 m全色高分辨率遥感数据进行地质灾害范围信息提取,选用国产HJ-1A/B CCD数据提取NDVI、土地利用分类、土壤含水量等动态地质灾害致灾因子,结合坡度、坡向、降水量、沟壑密度等静态因子,采用单因素叠加的信息量模型进行了区域地质灾害危险性评价,对利用国产遥感数据进行区域地质灾害信息提取和评价进行了有效探索。     

不同参数化方案对安徽一次暴雨过程模拟的影响分析

使用WRF v3.4模式对2012年7月12—14日安徽的一次暴雨进行模拟。保持其他参数如辐射、陆面过程等不变, 将不同微物理过程(Eta、Kessler、Lin方案)与积云参数方案(KF、BMJ、GD方案)进行组合成9个试验。将试验模拟结果与实况进行对比分析, 发现:微物理方案的选取对于降水的雨强、位置、雨区范围的模拟都有一定的影响。积云参数化方案对于降水的范围, 雨带的位置模拟也都有影响, 但对于雨强的影响不大。将各试验模拟的逐小时降水与实况进行比较, 发现试验Eta-GD和Lin-GD模拟降水日变化与实况更接近。通过TS评分、ETS评分和系统偏差分析, 表明试验Eta-GD在此次暴雨过程的降水模拟中表现最好。     

中层涡旋诱生南海热带低压形成的位涡反演分析

利用NCEP 1°×1°最终分析资料FNL和位涡反演方法,对2006年8月下旬一次中层涡旋诱发南海热带低压的形成过程进行了分析。结果表明,在中层涡旋诱发南海热带低压形成时高层暖心结构经历了由上向下逐渐发展的过程,而中层气旋性环流经历了由上向下快速发展的过程。高层暖心结构的向下发展主要与中低层凝结潜热加热作用和干空气从高层侵入有关,而高层波动的影响不明显,暖心发展到达近海面需要有底层热力异常和中低层凝结潜热加热作用的共同配合。中层气旋性环流的向下发展主要与中低层凝结潜热加热作用有关,高层波动对中低层涡度的影响不明显,而底层热力异常主要在900 h Pa以下产生负涡度。综合分析表明,中低层凝结潜热加热对南海热带低压的生成和发展起关键作用。     

近50 a华东地区雨日及降水量的变化特征

利用1961-2010年华东地区88个气象站逐日降水资料,采用趋势分析和突变检测等方法,研究了华东地区年、季、月雨日和降水量的时空变化特征.结果表明,华东地区年雨日和年降水量的长期趋势变化几乎相反,年雨日普遍减少(区域平均气候倾向率为-2.3d/(10a)),而年降水量除山东省外却普遍增加,反映年平均的日降水强度增加.季雨日与季降水量的长期变化较一致,秋季最相似;春季、秋季雨日和降水量都是大范围负趋势,但雨日的负趋势比降水量的范围更广、强度更大;夏季、冬季降水量在山东省呈减少趋势,在其他地区呈增加趋势,其中长三角地区夏季及江淮流域冬季的降水增加显著,而雨日在山东和福建是负趋势,其他地区为正趋势.年雨日在山东中东部、福建北部减少最多,这些地区一年四季雨日都是减少趋势,平均每10a减少3～5d.山东半岛年雨日在20世纪70年代末期发生突变,此后年雨日明显减少.