不同参数化方案对安徽一次暴雨过程模拟的影响分析

使用WRF v3.4模式对2012年7月12—14日安徽的一次暴雨进行模拟。保持其他参数如辐射、陆面过程等不变, 将不同微物理过程(Eta、Kessler、Lin方案)与积云参数方案(KF、BMJ、GD方案)进行组合成9个试验。将试验模拟结果与实况进行对比分析, 发现:微物理方案的选取对于降水的雨强、位置、雨区范围的模拟都有一定的影响。积云参数化方案对于降水的范围, 雨带的位置模拟也都有影响, 但对于雨强的影响不大。将各试验模拟的逐小时降水与实况进行比较, 发现试验Eta-GD和Lin-GD模拟降水日变化与实况更接近。通过TS评分、ETS评分和系统偏差分析, 表明试验Eta-GD在此次暴雨过程的降水模拟中表现最好。

Impact of various parameterization schemes in WRF model on numerical simulation of a heavy rainfall in Anhui

With WRFV3.4 meso-scale numerical prediction model, three microphysical process schemes(Eta, Kessler, Lin) and convection parameterization schemes (KF, BMJ, GD) were selected to simulate the heavy rainfall in Anhui province on July 12-14, 2012. Comparion between simulation and observation found that the microphysical process scheme affects the intensity, position and range of the heavy rainfall, while the convection process scheme influences the range, position of raim belt of heavy rainfall. Comparison between the simulated and the observed hourly precipitation found that the diurnal variation of precipitation simulated by tests Eta-GD and Lin-GD are more similar to the observation. The results of TS score, ETS score and system bias analysis reveal that the Eta-GD scheme test is the best in the simulation of this precipitation process.