On the morphology of radial sand ridges

We use a hydrodynamic model applied to an idealized fan-shaped basin to explore the morphology and dynamics of radial sand ridges in a convergent coastal system. A positive morphological feedback between channel incision and flow redistribution is responsible for the formation of the channel-ridge pattern. The selection mechanism of bottom wavelength is associated with flow concentration in the deeper part of the channels. Our results are compared to sediment and hydraulic dynamics in the radial sand ridges (RSRs) in China. In a convergent, sloping basin the tangentially averaged tidal velocity peaks at 47 km from the apex. This distance is similar to the arc distance, 62 km, where the RSRs are most incised. An offshore shift in tidal phase results in stronger flows near the north coastline, explaining the presence of asymmetric channel patterns. A numerical stability analysis indicates that small radial oscillations with a wavelength of 10° to 15° maximize the velocity in the troughs. This oscillation wavelength also emerges in the RSRs, which display a peak in spectral energy at a radial wavelength between 25° to 37.5°. High-resolution numerical simulations in the RSRs confirm that flow concentration occurs in the deeper part of the channels, keeping them flushed. We therefore conclude that the RSRs display morphometric characteristics similar to other tidal incisions, like tidal inlets and intertidal channels. This result further supports the dominant role of tidal prism and related peak velocities in incising coastal landscapes. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

云南云龙天池枝角类群落演替对1950s以来人类活动影响信号的识别

从1950s开始, 云南地区部分湖泊受到了水文调控(如筑坝)和鱼类引入等流域开发活动的直接影响, 湖泊水环境与生态系统结构已出现明显改变. 开展浮游动物群落的长期生态响应评价有助于认识气候波动和人为胁迫的影响模式. 本文选取云龙天池进行了沉积物记录分析, 在重建过去100年环境变化历史的基础上开展了枝角类群落的多指标分析(物种组成、个体大小、生物量等), 进一步结合多变量分析识别了枝角类群落构建的关键驱动因子. 结果显示, 云龙天池在过去100年间经历了明显的水位波动, 约1962年以前水位较低, 1950s起的水文调控(筑坝)导致湖泊水位波动上升, 2006年以来略有下降. 枝角类群落随水位波动呈现由底栖种向浮游种占优转变的模式, 并在2006年以来底栖种略有增加. 总体上, 低水位时期底栖枝角类占优, 高水位时期浮游枝角类占优. 水体营养水平也对枝角类群落产生了较为显著的影响. 在沉积物总氮和有机质通量上升时, 长额象鼻溞(Bosmina longirostris)相对丰度和枝角类浓度都明显上升. 枝角类象鼻溞个体大小表明, 1969年鱼类引入后象鼻溞的壳长、壳刺长度、触角长度显著减小, 反映了鱼类捕食压力上升的影响. 本研究进一步揭示了水文调控和鱼类引入对湖泊环境和生物群落结构的驱动影响. 其中, 1960s以前云龙天池处于自然波动的状态, 湖泊环境和枝角类群落变化主要受气候(如降水、气温)的影响; 1960s以来人类活动的影响强度已经掩盖了气候变化的信号, 成为影响湖泊生态演化轨迹的主要因素. 为了开展有效的湖泊保护与生态治理, 有必要综合评估水文调控、鱼类引入等人类活动对湖泊生态健康的长期影响.     

基于眼部图像特征的肝肾疾病病证比较研究

目的：基于五轮学说及眼部图像特征提取技术,探讨不同证候（湿热内蕴证、肝郁脾虚证、肝肾阴虚证）的肝硬化及慢性肾脏疾病患者眼部图像特征及其差异性,以期从眼部图像特征上为肝硬化临床诊断及证候辨识提供数据支持。方法：选取2017年10月至2018年3月在上海中医药大学附属曙光医院肝硬化科住院的湿热内蕴证、肝郁脾虚证及肝肾阴虚证3种证候的肝硬化患者118 例为研究对象,运用眼科裂隙灯采集受试者的眼部图像,并以年龄、性别、体质量指数匹配的非肝病（慢性肾脏疾病）患者115 例及健康志愿者112 例眼部图像特征为对照进行比较研究。剔除因受到各种因素干扰眼部图像不符合要求的患者,最终3组各纳入60 例进行眼部图像分析。基于图像局部二值模式（LBP）特征提取法,将彩色图像转化为共生矩阵,计算图像LBP特征面积百分比。通过方差分析、秩和检验等统计学方法对相关指标进行比较分析,找出组间差异性。结果：肝硬化患者、慢性肾脏疾病患者与健康人3组眼部图像LBP特征面积百分比差异均有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。与健康人组相比,在255层面积百分比中,肝硬化组有245层差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）,慢性肾脏疾病组有246层差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。肝硬化组与慢性肾脏疾病组相比,2组共有15层面积百分比差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。对2种疾病间不同证候的LBP特征频数面积百分比进行比较,慢性肾脏疾病患者湿热内蕴证、肝郁脾虚证及肝肾阴虚证3组证候间共19层差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）,而肝硬化组患者3组证候间差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）。比较3种证候不同疾病间的LBP特征频数面积百分比,湿热内蕴证中,肝硬化与慢性肾脏疾病组患者间有54层差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）;肝肾阴虚证中共有46层差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）;而肝郁脾虚证的2种疾病间差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）。比较湿热内蕴证、肝郁脾虚证与肝肾阴虚证3种证候间频数面积百分比,发现有2层差异存在统计学意义（P＜0.05）。结论：基于眼部图像LBP特征发现,肝硬化及慢性肾脏疾病2种疾病间存在明显差异,且2种疾病的相同证候间比较亦有显著性差异,但同一疾病的3种不同证候间比较,仅肾脏病患者在一定程度上有差异,而肝硬化患者各证候间区分不明显。提示运用眼部图像LBP特征提取技术对不同疾病区分的敏感性优于对证候的区分。     

江苏省海岸侵蚀现状遥感监测与防治对策

文章利用卫星遥感解译、潮汐数值模拟、GIS空间拓扑分析等技术手段,对水边线进行水位订正,推算出2019年度江苏沿海的遥感海岸线,对江苏省海岸侵蚀现状进行了遥感监测与评估。研究结果表明:2019年江苏省共有侵蚀岸线长58.55 km,占全省大陆海岸线的7.39%。废黄河三角洲侵蚀型海岸的侵蚀岸段平均年侵蚀后退 59.24 m,主要表现为盐养围堤的冲刷水毁;辐射沙洲北翼淤长型海岸的侵蚀岸段年平均侵蚀后退152.28 m,表现为潮间带上部坡度变缓,海岸线持续内移。全省海岸带侵蚀总面积为 7.244 8 hm2,强侵蚀岸段主要分布在南八滩闸北侧,新洋河口两侧以及斗龙港南侧区域。文章同时结合江苏海域动态监管工作经验,提出了5点海岸侵蚀灾害防治对策:①加强天-空-地一体化多手段联合监测,精确监控海岸侵蚀灾害发生范围与程度,了解海岸侵蚀强度与等级;②联合多平台海洋观测,深入开展致灾因素分析,了解海岸侵蚀灾害的发展与变化趋势,逐步完善灾害预警机制;③根据不同的海岸类型与海岸侵蚀特征,有效开展多策略的海岸防护整治,减少海岸侵蚀灾害损失;④加快海岸带保护修复,明确海岸带开发活动的适宜空间与适宜程度,优化海岸带空间布局;⑤强化海岸责任管理,明确监管职责。     

Extreme learning machine for the displacement prediction of landslide under rainfall and reservoir level

Landslide prediction is always the emphasis of landslide research. Using global positioning system GPS technologies to monitor the superficial displacements of landslide is a very useful and direct method in landslide evolution analysis. In this paper, an EEMD–ELM model [ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) based extreme learning machine (ELM) ensemble learning paradigm] is proposed to analysis the monitoring data for landslide displacement prediction. The rainfall data and reservoir level fluctuation data are also integrated into the study. The rainfall series, reservoir level fluctuation series and landslide accumulative displacement series are all decomposed into the residual series and a limited number of intrinsic mode functions with different frequencies from high to low using EEMD technique. A novel neural network technique, ELM, is employed to study the interactions of these sub-series at different frequency affecting landslide occurrence. Each sub-series extracted from accumulative displacement of landslide is forecasted respectively by establishing appropriate ELM model. The final prediction result is obtained by summing up the calculated predictive displacement value of each sub. The EEMD–ELM model shows the best accuracy comparing with basic artificial neural network models through forecasting the displacement of Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area of China.     

黑石礁海域生物碳、氮稳定同位素组成的研究

稳定同位素技术是研究生态系统中物质循环与能量流动的有效技术。利用稳定同位素技术研究了黑石礁海域浮游植物和6种海洋生物的δ13 C和δ15组成、营养位置、空间分布和月份变化。结果显示:浮游植物的δ15 C远低于其他物种,不同物种的δ13 C和δ15 N存在明显的差异,且有交叉现象,表明他们同化了不同的碳源;物种的δ15 N值空间差异较大而δ13 C值空间差异不明显,且δ15 N值与距离排污口的远近有关系,越靠近排污口δ15 N越大,与人类活动营养物质的输入有关系,可以用δ15 N监测人类活动对海洋生物的影响;孔石莼的δ15 N月平均变化很大,浮游植物δ15 N值基本没有变化,其他物种没有发生很大的变化;孔石莼是适合短期监测人类活动对海洋影响的物种。     

中国能源消费碳排放强度及其影响因素的空间计量

碳排放所引起的全球气候变化对人类经济社会发展带来了严峻的挑战。中国政府承诺到2020 年GDP碳排放强度较2005 年降低40%~45%,这一目标的实现有赖于全国层面社会经济和产业结构的实质性转型,更有赖于省区层面节能减排的具体行动。基于联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC) 提供的方法,本文估算了全国30 个省区1997-2010 年碳排放强度,采用空间自相关分析方法和空间面板计量模型,探讨了中国省级尺度碳排放强度的时空格局特征及其主要影响因素,旨在为政府制定差异化节能减排的政策和发展低碳经济提供科学依据。研究结果表明:① 1997-2010 年,中国能能源消费CO₂排放总量从4.16 Gt 增加到11.29Gt,年均增长率为7.15%,而同期GDP年均增长率达11.72%,碳排放强度总体上呈逐年下降的态势;② 1997-2010 年,碳排放强度的Moran's I 指数呈波动型增长,说明中国能源消费碳排放强度在省区尺度上具有明显的空间集聚特征,且集聚程度有不断增强的态势,同时,碳排放强度高值集聚区和低值集聚区表现出一定程度的路径依赖或空间锁定;③ 空间面板计量模型分析结果表明,能源强度、能源结构、产业结构和城市化率对中国能源消费碳排放强度时空格局演变具有重要影响;④ 提高能源利用效率,优化能源结构和产业结构,走低碳城市化道路,以及实行节能减排省区联动策略是推动中国实现节能减排目标的重要途径。     

Challenges to the representation of suspended sediment transfer using a depth‐averaged flux

The sediment saturation recovery process (i.e. the adaptation of suspended sediment concentration [SSC] to local forcing) is the main feature of the non‐equilibrium suspended sediment transport (SST) frequently occurring in fluvial, estuarine and coastal waters. In order to quantitatively describe this phenomenon, a series solution is analytically derived, including the evolution of both vertical SSC profile and near‐bed sediment flux (NBSF), and is verified by net erosion and net deposition experiments, respectively. The results suggest that the sediment saturation recovery process involves vertically varying fluxes that are not represented correctly by depth‐averaging. Consequently, a vertical two‐dimensional (2D) combined scheme is established and applied respectively in to a dredged trench and to a sand wave feature to demonstrate this argument. By analyzing the variations of the calculated depth‐averaged SSC and NBSF we reveal that the equilibrium state presented by the sediment carrying capacity (SCC) form of the NBSF, which is usually applied in depth‐integrated SST models, lags behind the actual dynamic bed equilibrium state. Moreover, the key factor α, the so‐called saturation recovery coefficient within this form, is not only a function of local Rouse number but also is influenced by the local SSC profile. Finally, a three‐dimensional (3D) non‐orthogonal curvilinear body‐fitted SST model is developed and validated in the Yangtze estuary, China, combined with the in situ hourly hydrographic data from August 14–15, 2007 during spring tide in the wet season. Model results confirm that the vertically varying sediment saturation recovery process, the discrepancies between the actual and SCC form of NBSF and non‐constant value of α are significant in actual real geomorphic cases. The quantitative morphological change resulting from variations in environmental conditions may not be correctly represented by uncorrected depth‐integrated SST models if they do not treat the effects of vertical motion on the sediment saturation recovery process. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海河流域极端暴雨特征及其天气成因

利用海河流域实测和调查年最大点暴雨、实测大面积暴雨和气象等资料,分析了年极端点暴雨的季节变化、特征和地区分布、大面积暴雨特征以及形成极端暴雨的天气成因,揭示了极端暴雨发生的基本规律。结果表明,流域暴雨9成以上集中在7~8月,极端暴雨7成高度集中在7月下旬到8月上旬;极端暴雨集中分布在太行山~燕山山脉的迎风山区;短历时小面积极端暴雨则分布在高原区;极端暴雨的年际变率迎风山区最大,平原和高原区较小;流域性极端暴雨高空环流多为经向型,通过中纬度西风槽、副热带高压或台风等天气系统以及迎风山区地形抬升作用共同造成。     

广西大厂矿田拉么-羊角尖一带含矿地层元素地球化学特征及其指示意义

广西大厂矿田锡矿体主要赋存于上泥盆统,锌铜矿体主要赋存在锡矿体的下部,以中泥盆统为主。通过对拉么-羊角尖一带四个钻孔中不同深度、不同岩石类型样品成矿元素含量的系统分析,探讨了成矿元素在空间上的变化规律。结果显示,绝大多数成矿元素在岩体中含量最低,向上至各个地层中呈锯齿状变化,而且多数成矿元素的高值点并没有在岩体的内部或边缘,而是远离一段距离,Zn、Cu集中在罗富组灰岩蚀变后的透辉石绿帘石化矽卡岩中。这种元素含量的变化一方面反映了成矿元素运移的方向是由下而上,另一方面也反映了成矿元素的富集与岩石类型密切相关,说明矿床为岩浆热液成因。