自动变形监测系统集成数据库的设计与实现

指出自动变形监测系统引入集成数据库技术的必要性。从自动变形监测系统的组成、软件功能设计以及实现过程等方面,分析集成监测数据库的结构,并采用E-R建模方法构建其概念模型。使用Power Designer软件将概念模型自动转化为物理模型并生成SQL脚本文件,满足自动变形监测的应用需求。     

AR序列异常值探测的Bayes方法在卫星钟差预报中的应用

AR模型中若含有异常值,会使传统的建模、估计及检验方法陷人困境,从而不能准确地预测和控制。本文在无信息先验条件下,结合观测信息,计算了基于均值漂移模型和方差膨胀模型异常值事件发生的后验概率,提出了无信息先验下自回归模型中异常值探测的Bayes方法并对异常值进行了估算。该方法能将异常值准确地探测和估算出来,借此修正模型,可提高预测的准确性。最后,做了钟差实测数据计算,比较了模型修正前后预报的情况,验证了该方法的有效性。     

Reservoir Porosity Measurement Uncertainty and its Influence on Shale Gas Resource Assessment

Reservoir porosity is a critical parameter for the process of unconventional oil and gas resources assessment. It is difficult to determine the porosity of a gas shale reservoir, and any large deviation will directly reduce the credibility of any shale gas resources evaluation. However, there is no quantitative explanation for the accuracy of porosity measurement. In this paper, measurement uncertainty, an internationally recognized index, was used to evaluate the results of porosity measurement of gas shale plugs, and its impact on the credibility of shale gas resources assessment was determined. The following conclusions are drawn:(1) the measurement uncertainty of porosity of a shale plug is 1.76%–3.12% using current measurement methods, the upper end of which is too large to be acceptable. It is suggested that the measurement uncertainty should be factored into the standard helium gas injection porosity determination experiment, and the uncertainty should be less than 2.00% when using a high-precision pressure gauge;(2) in order to reduce the risk for exploration and decision-making, attention should be paid to the large uncertainty(30% at least) of shale gas resource assessment results, sometimes with corrections being made based on the practical considerations;(3) a pressure gauge with an accuracy of 0.25% of the full scal cannot meet the requirements of porosity measurement, and a high-precision plug cutting method or high-precision bulk volume measurement method such as one using 3 D scanning, is recommended to effectively reduce porosity uncertainty;(4) the method and process for evaluating the measurement uncertainty of gas shale porosity could also be referred for assessment of experimental quality by other laboratories.     

Numerical simulation and environmental impact prediction of karst groundwater in Sangu Spring Basin,China

The changes of development and utilization of karst groundwater in Sangu Spring Basin have made the original groundwater resource evaluation unable to meet the needs of future economic development. Based on analysis of existing data, combined with the characteristics of supplement, runoff and draining of regional karst groundwater, the Visual Modelflow software was used to build a numerical simulation model of Sangu spring Basin. The amount of karst groundwater resource and groundwater environment of the Basin were evaluated under different exploitation schemes, and the changes of karst groundwater environment in the future ten years were also predicted. The fitting error which is less than 0.5 m between the calculated value and measured value of the water level in the fitted borehole accounts for 93%. For the lithologically and structurally complex Sangu Spring Basin, the fitting effect of numerical simulation model was ideal. On the basis of the current mining amount of 111.80 million m³/a, the total redistributed exploited amount in the spring region was 61.79 million m³/a. Under the condition that the quantity of recoverable resources reached 173.59 million m³/a and under different precipitation schemes, all constraint conditions were satisfied, such as regional water level drawdown, maximum allowable water level drawdown in every simulated water source area and the flow rate of Guobi Spring. The results will provide a scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of karst groundwater in Sangu Spring Basin.     

鄂尔多斯盆地演化-改造的时空坐标及其成藏(矿)响应

鄂尔多斯盆地的发育时限为中晚三叠世—早白垩世,晚白垩世以来为盆地的后期改造时期;盆地主体具克拉通内盆地特征;现今盆地为经过多期不同形式改造的残留盆地。该盆地叠加在早、晚古生代大型盆地之上,又属多重叠合型盆地。鄂尔多斯盆地集油气、煤和铀于一盆,多种能源矿产丰富。根据盆地及周缘地区主要地质构造特征和地质事件,结合对盆地各区裂变径迹年龄的综合研究认为,在盆地发育时期(T2—K1)至少发生了4期明显的构造变动,将盆地的沉积-演化过程划分为4个阶段:中晚三叠世和早中侏罗世富县—延安期为盆地发育的两个鼎盛阶段,广泛接受沉积,湖盆宽阔,沉积范围为今残留盆地面积的2倍多;形成重要的含油和成煤岩系。这两个阶段被期间发生的区域抬升变动(J1)所分隔。抬升导致沉积间断,延长组顶部遭受强烈而不均匀的侵蚀下切,形成起伏较大的侵蚀地貌。延安期末盆地抬升变动不强烈,沉积间断和剥蚀延续时间短。随后又复沉降,进入盆地发育的第三阶段中侏罗世直罗-安定期:沉积范围仍较广阔,但湖区面积明显减小。晚侏罗世构造变动强烈,在盆地西缘形成逆冲-推覆构造带,在其东侧前渊局限堆积厚度不等的砾岩,盆地中东部地区遭受剥蚀改造;今黄河以西地区初显东隆西坳格局。在早白垩世阶段,沉积分布仍较广阔,不整合超覆在前期西缘冲断带和南、北边部隆起之上。在盆地演化的前三个阶段,沉积中心均分布在延安附近及其以东;而堆积中心则位于邻近物源的盆地西部,且不同阶段位置有别;直到早白垩世,盆地的沉积中心和堆积中心的分布位置才大体一致,主要位于盆地西部的中南段。早白垩世末,鄂尔多斯盆地整体抬升,大型盆地消亡;盆地开始进入后期改造时期。在晚白垩世以来的盆地后期改造时期,鄂尔多斯盆地主要发生了以下重要地质事件:1盆地主体持续幕式、差异性整体抬升和强烈而不均匀的剥蚀,东部黄河附近被剥蚀的中生界厚度最大可达2000m;2盆地本部长期幕式整体的差异抬升和剥蚀,形成3期区域侵蚀-夷平面(E32—E12,E23和N21);3地块边部裂陷,周缘断陷盆地相继形成,接受巨厚沉积;4持续达2亿多年的东隆西降运动于中新世晚期(8MaBP)反转易位;东部开始沉降,广泛接受红黏土沉积;六盘山、地块西缘和西部相继隆升;标志着中国西部区域构造运动对该区的影响更为重要;5分别在8MaBP和2.5MaBP,风成红黏土、黄土开始广泛堆积,先后形成红土准高原和黄土高原及黄土高原面;6黄河水系的发育、外流和侵蚀地貌的形成。根据各主要地质事件的发生和动力学环境的演变,将该区晚白垩世以来划分为5个演化阶段(K2—E1;E2-3;N1-21;N31—N2;Q)。这些地质事件的发生和构造变动,与周邻各构造域,特别是中国东、西部(含青藏高原)重大构造运动的复合、叠加及其与时彼此消长变化密切相关;其活动和改造,使中生代盆地的原始面貌大为改观。鄂尔多斯盆地多种能源矿产成生—成藏(矿)和定位的主要期次,与盆地中新生代演化和改造的阶段有明显的响应联系和密切的耦合关系。盆地演化末(晚)期及之后的整体差异隆升和区域剥蚀,对鄂尔多斯盆地多种能源矿产的成藏(矿)和分布及其相互作用的影响最为重要。     

基于Oracle Spatial和OO4O的空间数据存取研究

介绍了用OracleSpatial对空间数据进行组织和管理的原理与方法,给出了在VC++6.0环境下用OO4O读取OracleSpatial空间数据的编程方法,为基于OracleSpatial的GIS应用系统开发带来了新的解决思路和研究方向。     

土地调查运行数据库质量评价研究

在分析土地调查数据组织管理模型、数据库运行模型的基础上,从应用的角度建立土地调查运行数据库的质量评价模型,并进行模型示例和分析,得出一些有益的结论。     

智能优化方法与粒子滤波技术融合的分析与展望

智能优化算法通过模拟自然生态系统机制以解决复杂优化问题,粒子滤波成为解决非线性及非高斯动态系统最优估计问题的研究热点。若将多种优化算法结合使用,设计更好的滤波器参数寻优步骤,将会极大改善现有非线性滤波的估计性能。介绍了几种智能计算方法和粒子滤波方法,在此基础上,对智能优化方法与粒子滤波技术的融合进行了分析和讨论,并加以总结和展望。     

南京栖霞山铅锌多金属矿成矿特征及找矿方向

在分析矿床地质特征的基础上,结合前人资料探讨了栖霞山铅锌多金属矿的成矿物质来源、控矿因素和矿床成因。成矿流体主要由来自深部的含矿热液、源自石炭—二叠系碳酸盐岩的有机流体和地表渗流雨水组成。其中,有机流体在矿物沉淀富集过程中起到较为重要的作用。矿体主要受纵向断裂F2、上下构造层之间不整合面和石炭—二叠系碳酸盐岩地层控制,认为在栖霞山深部,沿纵向断裂F2的延伸方向仍有较大找矿空间。