2011—2050年长江流域气候变化预估问题的探讨

利用长江流域1961—2008年观测气象资料,对IPCC 第四次评估报告中12个全球气候模式及所有模式集合平均进行比较验证,结果表明：MIUB_ECHO_G模式对该地区降水模拟能力较强,NCAR_CCSM3模式对温度模拟效果较好。进一步利用MIUB_ECHO_G模式和NCAR_CCSM3模式结果在SRES-A2、-A1B、-B1 3种排放情景下的降水和温度数据,分析2011—2050年3种排放情景下长江流域降水和温度变化特征。结果表明,2011—2050年长江流域降水变化趋势不明显,温度呈增加趋势,增幅在2℃内。     

围岩质量分级的模糊综合评判研究

岩体本身具有许多不确定性和随机性,围岩质量分级取决于许多因素。选择岩石单轴饱和抗压强度Re、岩体完整程度（RQD）、平均节理裂隙间距d、不连续面状态系数f、结构面方位φ以及地下水状态w六个指标,采用模糊数学方法,引入模糊数学隶属函数的概念,建立边坡岩体质量综合评判模型,并将其应用于黄河上游某电站引水隧洞围岩岩体质量评价。评判结果显示,该模型使用模糊综合评价的评价结果与现场定性判断及报告中RMR分类结果基本一致。     

五轮山矿区可采煤层地质特征及含气性

贵州省五轮山矿区的含煤地层为龙潭组,钻孔煤心化验资料和瓦斯解吸数据、煤样压汞试验表明,可采煤层显微煤岩类型以微镜惰煤为主,煤化作用符合深成变质作用的一般规律,煤体原生结构煤占优势。主煤层孔隙结构特征的孔容和孔表面积差异较大,因此可采煤层含气较高,解吸能力相对较弱。     

The influences of mining subsidence on the ecological environment and public infrastructure: a case study at the Haolaigou Iron Ore Mine in Baotou,China

The scope and extent of mine subsidence caused by exploitation of metal ores are usually low. However, in some cases, owing to such factors as special geological conditions in ore body, backward mining technology and unsound management systems, exploitation of metal ores would also lead to a large area of mine subsidence, causing great damages to the mining environment and infrastructure. A serious mine subsidence happened in January 2007 at the Haolaigou Iron Ore Mine has caused a huge collapse pit on the earth’s surfaces. This provides a suitable place to study the influence of mine subsidence. Based on former research results, a 3D geological model is constructed using the ROCK MODEL software developed by authors’ group. Based on in situ geological conditions, the range of orebody mining and the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil mass were determined by inverse analysis. Creep analysis of the collapse pit was also performed. Furthermore, the elastoplastic and creep of the secondary collapse were computed, and the final range of the collapse pit was predicted. Finally, the influences of mining subsidence on the ecological environment and public infrastructure are discussed and control measures were proposed. The results indicate that the collapse pit would not affect the road even if creep is considered; however, the secondary collapse would influence the road. So the collapse pit should be dealt with as soon as possible.     

Micro-Column Separation/Pre-Concentration Combined with Fluorinating Electrothermal Vaporisation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry for Determination of Trace Refractory Elements in Seawater, Soil and Sediment

A new, rapid and highly efficient method for the determination of trace amounts of refractory elements (titanium, zirconium, hafnium, vanadium, niobium, tantalum, molybdenum) using micro-column separation/pre-concentration combined with fluorinating electrothermal vaporisation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (FETV-ICP-MS) has been developed. In this method, trace amounts of the analytes were selectively adsorbed by a conical micro-column packed with the solid phase extraction material N -benzoyl- N -phenylhydroxylamine loaded on microcrystalline naphthalene at desired pH values. Various factors influencing the separation/pre-concentration, such as pH, sample flow rate and sample volume were studied in detail, and the influences of the organic matrix and the pre-ashing temperature on the determined results were also investigated. Under optimal conditions, the detection limits for Ti, Zr, Hf, V, Nb, Ta and Mo were 0.016, 0.011, 0.010, 0.007, 0.005, 0.006 and 0.003 ng ml⁻¹, respectively, and the relative standard deviations ranged from 3.3% (Nb) to 9.6% (Hf) ( C = 0.20 ng ml⁻¹, n = 9). In order to validate the method, the proposed method was applied to the analysis of three certified reference materials (soils GBW07401 and GBW07425; sediment GBW07301a) and the results obtained were in good agreement with the reference values. The method was also successfully applied to the analysis of real seawater samples with satisfactory results.     

中国大陆地壳运动的GPS观测及相关动力学研究

现代空载大地测量技术的发展极大地改变了传统大地测量学的观测手段、研究内容和范围,促进了地球动力学领域的研究．本文回顾过去近二十年来在中国大陆进行的全国及区域性GPS观测和取得的成果,重点评述在GPS相关动力学领域的研究进展和存在的问题,对我国GPS观测及动力学研究今后的发展提出初步见解．     

牛庄洼陷南斜坡未熟-低熟烃源岩排烃特征探讨

牛庄洼陷及其南斜坡烃源岩孔隙度、声波时差与伊蒙矿物含量测定结果表明,2 6 0 0m为成岩作用早期与晚期阶段的界限,在早期演化阶段南斜坡没有出现明显的异常压力,牛庄洼陷成岩作用晚期阶段有明显的压力异常。生物标志物演化与Ro值测定反映,该区有机质大量成烃起始阶段为 2 70 0m,牛庄洼陷南斜坡带 <2 70 0m烃源岩不具备大量排烃的生烃量条件与地质证据。牛庄洼陷南斜坡八面河油田原油的混合成熟度特征与混合的均一性,反映原油的混合作用在初次运移阶段可能即已发生,推测牛庄洼陷深部烃源岩在异常压力作用下通过微裂隙等间歇式排烃的同时,浅层未熟 低熟烃源岩生成的少量原油经由断层、应力产生的微裂隙与层理面,在地层压力及深部流体过剩压力参与下与成熟油混合幕式排出。烃源岩未熟 低熟阶段的排烃效率低于成熟烃源岩。     

三维模式约束的电离层掩星反演方法

目前电离层掩星数据反演是基于电离层电子密度分布局部球对称近似的Abel反演方法,实际电离层的非球对称性会给电子密度反演结果带来误差.本文研究利用三维电离层模式来提供电子密度水平变化的先验信息约束电离层掩星反演的方法,即三维模式约束法;并将该方法应用于模拟掩星观测数据和实测掩星数据的反演.模拟观测数据的反演结果表明,与Abel反演方法相比,三维模式约束法能够减小反演误差.采用IRI2001模式作为约束,对COSMIC电离层掩星实测数据反演,将反演结果与全球的垂测仪数据进行比较,结果表明,三维模式约束法和Abel反演方法都能很好地反演电离层掩星.     

厦门台地倾斜观测资料中海潮干扰的综合特征

厦门台所记录到的地形变资料与国内其他台站所记录到的相应资料相比,无论是在内在精度方面,还是在外在形态方面都有着很大的差别.原因就在于厦门台的地形变资料不仅能记录到固体潮成份,还能更多地记录到海潮干扰成份,这种干扰成份在地倾斜资料中表现得尤其明显,这是海岛型台站地形变资料中的特有现象.     

首都圈地磁场变化的空间分布与中强地震活动

这里主要分析首都圈及周围地区地磁垂直分量Z等变线变化与该区1～2年尺度中强地震的关系。经过分析得出：正常情况下年变线分布均匀,在首都圈及邻近地区较强地震发生前1～2年内出现等变线密集区域,未来地震就发生在区域的边缘,特别是等变线长轴所指方向的活动构造带上。