An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, the sixth largest rice producer in the world, has been identified as high risk from the effects of climate change. Many of the adverse impacts of climate change such as land inundation and changes in weather patterns and CO₂ levels will impact the agricultural sector. This study develops a partial-equilibrium multi-regional farm household model of Bangladesh rice and non-rice agricultural markets to quantify the impacts of climate change on consumption, production, prices, and farmers’ welfare. The model is calibrated to the Bangladesh rice market using Household Income and Expenditure Survey data. The model is simulated to analyze the impact of land reduction and productivity decline resulting from climate change. The results show that the decline in production in the coastal and northern regions offsets the production increase in the central and eastern regions, and the simulation predicts that total rice production for Bangladesh falls by about 2%. As total rice consumption falls and imports rise, the net effect leads to a rise in the rice price by 5.71% and a decline in farmers’ welfare. Sensitivity analysis shows that more- (less-) effective abatement technology could play a key role in mitigating (exacerbating) the price and welfare effects. The model predicts that many farmers in regions directly impacted by climate change could leave farming in search of off-farm work. Thus, the government can ease this transition by promoting urban development to provide more job options and technical training for farmers.     

A long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regions of Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole

A long-term (1948 to 2012) trend of precipitation (annual, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons) in Bangladesh was analyzed in different regions using both parametric and nonparametric approaches. Moreover, the possible teleconnections of precipitation (annual and monsoon) variability with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated using both average and individual (both positive and negative) values of ENSO index and IOD. Our findings suggested that for annual precipitation, a significant increasing monotonic trend was found in whole Bangladesh (4.87 mm/year), its western region (5.82 mm/year) including Rangpur (9.41 mm/year) and Khulna (4.95 mm/year), and Sylhet (10.12 mm/year) and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) from eastern region. In pre-monsoon, only Rangpur (2.88 mm/year) showed significant increasing trend, while in monsoon, whole Bangladesh (3.04 mm/year), Sylhet (7.17 mm/year), and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) showed similar trend. In post-monsoon, there was no significant trend. Our results also revealed that the precipitation (annual or monsoon) of whole Bangladesh and almost all of the spatial regions did not show any significant correlation with ENSO events, whereas the average IOD values showed significant correlation only in monsoon precipitation of western region. The individual positive IODs showed significant correlation in whole Bangladesh, western region, and its two divisions (Rajshahi and Khulna). So, in the context of Bangladesh climate, IOD has the more teleconnection to precipitation than that of ENSO. Our findings indicate that the co-occurrence of ENSO and IOD events may suppress their influence on each other.

     

First fossil evidence of Connaraceae R. Br. from Indian Cenozoic and its phytogeographical significance

Fossil leaflet impression described here as a new species Rourea miocaudata sp. nov., showing close resemblance with the modern leaflets of Rourea caudata Planch. (Connaraceae R. Br.), has been recorded from the lower part of the Siwalik sediments (Dafla Formation, middle–upper Miocene) exposed at the road-cutting section of Pinjoli area in West Kameng district, Arunachal Pradesh. The important morphological characters of the fossil are its narrow elliptic leaflet, cuneate base, long caudate apex, entire margin, eucamptodromous to brochidodromous secondary veins, presence of intersecondary veins, percurrent and reticulate tertiary veins and orthogonally reticulate quaternary veins. This is the first authentic record of the occurrence of leaflet comparable to R. caudata of Connaraceae from the Cenozoic sediments of India and abroad. At present R. caudata does not grow in India and is restricted only in southeast Asia especially in China and Myanmar. This taxon probably migrated to these southeast Asian regions after lower Siwalik sedimentation (middle–upper Miocene) due to climatic change caused by post-Miocene orogenic movement of the Himalaya. The recovery of this species and other earlier-described evergreen taxa from the same formation, suggests the existence of a tropical, warm and humid climatic conditions during the depositional period.     

Rock mass rating and Kinematic analysis for slope stability investigation of Utari dam,Lalitpur district,Uttar Pradesh

Rock mass characterization of Utari dam in Lalitpur district of Uttar Pradesh was done to identify different stability classes of rock mass. For better stability of Utari dam, foundation conditions were carefully studied by detailed field investigations of the site supplemented by laboratory tests. During feasibility and preliminary stages, rock mass characterization of slopes was conducted to identify the vulnerable zones of failure. Rock mass characterization was done by compilation of information obtained from intact rock as well as from rock mass to determine its grade and long term slope stability of the site. On the basis of Rock Mass Rating (RMR) and Geological Strength Index (GSI) slope stability is identified which lies under good quality rock mass. Kinematic analysis was conducted to find out the probability for different types of structurally controlled slope failure. Microscopic analyses were conducted to identify the degree of chemical alteration of feldspar. Clay formation by sericitization along joint planes is harmful for the stability of dam structure. Remedial measures must be taken to reduce the extent of chemical alteration. Granitoids at dam site forms a compact and stable foundation consisting of four sets of joints in which two sets were prominent which are dipping on the upstream side of the dam which reveals good condition on the dam site as leakage from reservoir will be minimum and least up-thrust on the dam structure.     

SMR geomechanics and kinematic analysis near Rasulpur,Fatehpur Sikri,Uttar Pradesh

Slope stability of mine slopes is often associated with safety and economics during excavation. Sandstone is excavated from Rasulpur area of Fatehpur Sikri in Uttar Pradesh for the purpose of crushed, decorative and dimension stones. In the present paper an attempt has been made to characterize the rock slope faces into different stability classes. Characterization is based on geological and geotechnical parameters recorded on the outcrop during field investigation and supplemented by geomechanical properties by the laboratory test for strength of the rock intact. SMR Geomechanics classification is used to identify the stability class and remedial measures are also suggested to reduce any possible hazard. Kinematic analysis of slope was also investigated to determine the probability of any possible structurally controlled failure. On the basis of SMR Geomechanics calculations slope under investigation lies under good stability class i.e. 2a and 2b. Installation of nets during excavation can be done and for better safety spot and systematic rock bolting can be done. Kinematic study reveals that toppling failures may occur, special care must be given to the joint set which can trigger toppling failure.     

A Review of the Bentong-Raub Suture vis-à-vis New Insight of the Tectonic Evolution of Malay Peninsula,South East Asia

Genesis of the so‐called Bentong‐Raub Suture of Malay Peninsula does not fit to the model of subduction‐related collision. It has evolved from transpression tectonics resulting closure and exhumation of the inland basin which underwent extensive back‐arc extension during Triassic. Crust having similar thickness (average ～35 km) below entire Malay Peninsula nagate collision of two separate continental blocks rather supports single continental block that collided with South China continental block during Permo‐Triassic. Westward subduction of intervening sea (Proto South China Sea) below Malay Peninsula resulted in widespread I‐ and S‐Type granitization and volcanism in the back‐arc basins during Triassic. Extensive occurrence of Permo‐Triassic Pahang volcanics of predominantly rhyolitic tuff suggest its derivation from back‐arc extension. Back‐arc extension, basin development and sedimentation of the central belt of the peninsula continued until Cretaceous. A‐Type granite of metaluminous to peraluminous character indicates their emplacement in an intraplate tectonic setting. Malay Peninsula suffered an anticlockwise rotation due to the rifting of Luconia–Dangerous Grounds from the east Asia in the Late Cretaceous–Early Tertiary. Extensive ductile and brittle deformation including crustal segmentation, pull‐apart fracturing and faulting occurred during the closure and exhumation of the basins developed in the peninsula during Late Cretaceous–Early Tertiary. Crustal shortening in the central belt of the peninsula has been accomodated through strike‐slip displacement, shearing and uplift.     

Assessing factors affecting drought,earthquake, and flood risk perception: empirical evidence from Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - Understanding household disaster risk perception is crucial to formulate and apply disaster risk reduction strategies. Using survey data from 300 households from three highly...     

Facies Analysis, Sequence Stratigraphy and Diagenetic Studies of the Jurassic Carbonates of the Kohat Basin, Northwest Pakistan: Reservoir Implications

The present study deals with the depositional facies, diagenetic processes and sequence stratigraphy of the shallow marine carbonates of the Samana Suk Formation, Kohat Basin, in order to elucidate its reservoir quality. The Samana Suk Formation consists of thin to thick-bedded, oolitic, bioclastic, dolomitic and fractured limestone. Based on the integration of outcrop, petrographic and biofacies analyses, the unit is thought to have been deposited on a gentle homoclinal ramp in peritidal, lagoonal and carbonate shoal settings. Frequent variations in microfacies based sea-level curve have revealed seven Transgressive Systems Tracts (TSTs) and six Regressive Systems Tracts (RSTs). The unit has undergone various stages of diagenetic processes, including mechanical and chemical compaction, cementation, micritization, dissolution and dolomitization. The petrographic analyses show the evolution of porosity in various depositional and diagenetic phases. The fenestral porosity was mainly developed in peritidal carbonates during deposition, while the burial dissolution and diagenetic dolomitization have greatly enhanced the reservoir potential of the rock unit, as is further confirmed by the plug porosity and permeability analyses. The porosities and permeabilities were higher in shoal facies deposited in TSTs, as compared to lagoonal and peritidal facies, except for the dolomite in mudstone, deposited during RSTs. Hence good, moderate and poor reservoir potential is suggested for shoal, lagoonal and peritidal facies, respectively.     

Middle Permian Mixed Siliciclastic-Carbonate System on the Northwestern Margin of the Indian Plate, Pakistan: Implications for Paleoclimate and Carbonate Platform Evolution

A mixed siliciclastic-carbonate system that responds to changes in Permian climate and subsequent carbonate platform evolution is investigated using microscopic details of the Middle Permian Amb Formation(Fm.),in Saiyiduwali section,Khisor Range,northern Pakistan.Thin sections were made from rocks throughout the stratigraphic section of the Amb Fm.and analyzed with an emphasis on carbonate and clastic microfacies,and the latter interpreted within the existing chronostratigraphic framework.Outcrop observations reveal that the units comprise coarse-grained,channelized,ripplemarked,and burrowed sandstone and sandy,fossiliferous limestone with minor marls and shale intercalations,suggesting deposition in a subaqueous tide-dominated delta to beach barrier.Based on the determined seven microfacies coupled with outcrop observation,the Amb Fm.was deposited in a tide-influenced subaqueous delta to middle shelf environment under fluctuating sea level.The deposition of compositionally mature sandstone in the lower part of the formation suggests reworking of detritus from the rift shoulders and an adjacent source area with an ambient warm and humid climate.The stratal mixing of carbonates and compositionally mature siliciclastic units in the middle part suggest deposition under tectonic and climate-induced terrigenous and carbonate fluxes to the basin.Thus the deposition shows a perfect transition from clastic-dominated deltaic to pure carbonate platform settings as a result of warm climate and tectonics.This Middle Permian warming is confirmed by sea-level rise and the presence of a temperature-sensitive fusulinid fauna in association with photozoan-based ooids.Deposition of the Amb Fm.and establishment of a carbonate platform are envisaged to be associated with major rifting of northern Gondwana,which subsequently resulted in the development of a rift basin at the passive margin of the NW Indian Plate then in northern Pakistan.     

Integration of Sequence Stratigraphic Analysis and 3D Geostatistical Modeling of Pliocene–Pleistocene Delta,F3 Block,Netherlands

This research is focused on the analysis of the sequence stratigraphic units of F3 Block, within a wave-dominated delta of Plio–Pleistocene age. Three wells of F3 block and a 3D seismic data, are utilized in this research. The conventional techniques of 3D seismic interpretation were utilized to mark the 11 surfaces on the seismic section. Integration of seismic sequence stratigraphic interpretation, using well logs, and subsequent 3D geostatistical modeling, using seismic data, aided to evaluat...